NFL Showdown Odds and Leverage for Draftkings -Cle vs Pit Sept 2023

Just gonna jump right in it. There are two games on the slate but only going to have time to focus on Pit vs Cle with the start times and slates being so close. We are only working with a 1 week sample going into this so there is likely going to be some gut checks with this game.

Updated: 6:45pm

Odds vs Salary

It seems Kenny Pickett has the most upside on the slate. I may take a stab at him in some capacity if things look right. Several of his WRs are also floating above the line and so I would be thinking pitt passing game on the surface. The defense they face matters though so lets see whats ahead before we lock anyone in. The cheap side has Heyward and Ford as the best values below 2K.

Vegas vs My Expectations

The ideal thing to do is project the game script using vegas totals and offensive game plan predictions. I am seeing a super low score possible here, with only 33 points as the game total, favoring the Cleveland side. Keep in mind we are working with a 1 game sample and Pitt just got blown out in that one game. It doesnt mean they have to do that again. i'll assume they put up more fight this time. PFF is showing some significant pass protection issues in Pittsburg and then some issues with Cleveland run blocking ahead.

Matchup History

Their last 5 games indicate that one team typically beats down the other. Last 3 games indicate that the home team advantage has held up. Can we trust Pitt?

Defense vs Receivers

So far, Cleveland defense hasnt shown any holes DVOA wise, so thats interesting. Meanwhile Pitt has a sharp hole around WR2 for Cleveland to target. I dont know if Elijah Moore is that guy or not; he just happened to get 6 targets last week though. I wouldnt be surprised if Donovan (projected) or Cooper are WR2 this week, depending on who runs the most routes from the left side of the offense. On the other side, everyone has a projected top 10 matchup to beat. Is Pickens elite enough?

When Cleveland has the ball:

Update: Some leveraged captain choices for the Browns include Watson, Moore and Peoples. Chubb usage is high but he seems better equipped for flex.

The odds fully support Cleveland to do well, and because they are the favorites, ownership will follow. Fortunately you only need to have maybe 1-2 unique plays in your lineup in showdown. Ford? Goodwin? Thats about the deepest of punts you can make for leverage. Right now there are just too many directions to go with Cleveland for me to choose.

When Pittsburg has the ball:

Steelers defense is a viable captain choice but a risky one.

At least things are more consolidated. This appears to be a team that will go out and pass the ball no matter what, as Tomlin doesnt believe in analytics. Therefore I am leaning towards a Pickett stack. Not sure if it is Picket to Pat or Pickens but will just have to monitor as ownership and odds update later. There just isnt a clear captain that I like yet, with most options going flat.

This is your starting point. Lets see how we finish!