NFL Showdown Odds and Leverage for Draftkings - MIA vs NE part 1 Sept 2023

Odds vs Situations

I hope you have used my page before as I wont have a ton of time to explain this chart. However what I can tell you is that based on week 1, Hill/Tua/Mac clearly had the highest expected workload that week. Ownership wise, we know that Tua and Tyreek will bring that same ownership back with them. Interestingly, New England is going under owned and so a Mac Jones stack will immediately give you leverage if targetting New England in some capacity. Can they shut down Hill? He has been shut down before so I am leaning yes, but also leaning towards playing the guy with the most upside on the slate.

Vegas

Based on the line, I expect this game to go over the vegas total, and with New England covering, that allows for a stack to show more value on that side of the ball so thats how I am approaching things tonight. I took a peek at the oline dline matchups and confirmed that neither team is expected to pressure the QB so maybe they both find success.

Defense vs Recievers

It seems that WR3 for Miami and the TE/RB have the best path for the Patriots to points. Cracraft is interesting for that reason as a dart.

When Stacking Miami:

It would appear that Tua as captain makes the most sense with Hill in the flex. Then you may need a rare piece such as Smyth, Ahmed or Ingold. Craycraft is the most intruiging based on what he did last week in terms of opportunity.

When stacking the Patriots

There are a few more options here than I'm comfortable playing in captain as 4 of the top 5 plays appear to be captain leverage as of now. Maybe we can use some flex pieces instead from New England?