NFL Showdown Odds and Leverage for Draftkings - NYG vs SEA - Oct 2023

I wish I had hit the publish button last night, as I could have given you a low owned Noah Gray play for a 200 dollar TD. The cheap guys dont always work out but when they do, I'm using this platform to spot em in advance.

Updated: 6:52 pm CST

Expectations vs Salary

Lets just say what we need to say - the Giants suck. However, sucking is not necessarily a bad thing for DFS, because workloads still matter for points. Daniel Jones therefore has shown the potential to get the most points in this slate, and also has the most expected overall ownership. Other pieces that spike are shown above the line like Tyler Lockett at 8K, all the way down to Cody Parkinson. Opportunity for points is a great predictor towards a big game eventually when those TDs are caught or ran in. Lets see below for more ideas as to how the game plan could look.

Vegas

Seattle seems to have the giants in the headlock with regards to the spread on my calculation. Without considering weather or injuries, Seattle should absolutely cover the spread, granted this is a road game. I have the game total going under as well, if the Giants underperform as projected to.

Script:

Both teams tend to run the ball better than they pass the ball. Both teams are also considered terrible pass defenses. Seattle seems to funnel a bit stronger to the pass, and therefore looking at Daniel Jones and a pass catcher could be ideal.

Defense vs Receivers

Neither QB situation is optimal, however there are some opportunities in the passing game against both teams. Seattle WR2 has a little funnel to the WR2 spot. Whether or not that is DK or Lockett is to be determined, as they randomly both find a way to look like WR1 throughout the year. The Giants may want to rely on a TE to get their points, and therefore I will peek at the roster to see who gets the redzone usage. Interestingly enough I only see two options here and that is Bellinger or Waller, which helps isolate things.

When NYG has the ball:

Updated:

I feel like I am going to build a lineup with the Giants in the flex. The more Giants you play the better. I dont know if we need them at captain though anymore. I will leave my lineups in from earlier but some things are shifting.

Jones, Brieda, Waller (my preferred captain tonight), and maybe Slayton or Gano could make for an intruiging play. Stacking 4 from the losing team sometimes pans out due to yards and catch volume. There arent a ton of projected TDs to go around for NYG so leaning a kicker here.

When SEA has the ball:

Updated: Metcalf has shifted to more of a flex play than captain play. If you wanted to go really weird today, Noah Fant at captain and the jam in mentality is intruiging to me. Will he be top scorer? No, but he does allow for a lot of top plays in one lineup if you go that route. Same with Zach Charbonnet if you want to take a risk of Walker getting hurt or vulchered. Specific game scripts work for that purpose.

Lockett and Meyers are interesting to me. Metcalf has some captain appeal along with Geno as well. These leverage numbers tend to shift up to lineup lock so check back for more definition later, but I'd also consider the Seattle kicker in the event I want for players from this side of the ball. I like to stack the team 4-2 when I play personally.

Check back later for updates!