NFL Showdown Odds and Leverage for Draftkings - SF vs NYG 2023

I'm not doing well right now, but I do know the show much go on. Here are some breakdown tips for tonight's showdown.

Updated: 6:38 pm Aiyuk is out!

Odds and Situations

In terms of situations, Daniel Jones looks like he has been working the most for his price by quite a bit. The level of choice we must make here though is, whether or not we believe that he will find enough success in his volume vs a quality defense or not. Most public oppinion is no, CMC is going to run all over them. So lets see if there are other options to accept. Also noting that Shepard and Belinger are close to min priced in showdown which is interesting.

Vegas Expectations

From this perspective, I think SF has the capability to blow out the giants and exceed expectations, meaning we may need to have a one sided SF lineup to reach our upside today, even though the crowd is likely doing the same. Giants are also without Barkley which means some usage may convert to some points somewhere for NY as well, so I may still sit with the 4-2 stack, favoring SF.

Defense vs Receivers

Both defenses actually have holes here. SF was torched last week by Puka and the Giants have basically been torched by everyone, due to poor offense for the most part. I have listed the projected player in the most likely spot to get those catches and yards. So two ways to look at this from the giants, either a slot or auxillary WR may end up finding success. That is great because I dont feel like paying up for a NYG tbh.

This may be an Aiyuck game but honestly Deebo is good enough to beat their coverage anyways. And if the game gets out of hand fast enough, maybe another case where someone steps up with success in blowouts. I'll heavily rely on SF leverage below.

When NYG has the ball:

There arent a ton of choices that make sense here from a captain perspective. Maybe Jones, maybe Waller. SF currently ranks 3rd vs TE so I'm less interested in Waller or a TE. Hodgins is not really leveraed at all so theres that too. Tough call at this hour, and hopefully I will be able to update to feel good about a Giant outside of Hodgins but hes the guy right now unless going super low like Shepard or Robinson or Gray (which are all possibilities).

When SF has the ball:

CMC is going to be rock chalk, Purdy is going to make for an intruiging captain play at this rate otherwise. Then you have Aiyuck out, so Jauan may see extra work. I may take on one or the other at captain if building 2 lineups. Hope to update again before kickoff!