NFL Showdown Pivots - Jacksonville Jaguars vs New York Jets - Dec 2022

I woke up today with one goal - win. Lets get it.

Last updated: 6:30pm CST

Odds vs Salary

Updated: 630pm

Odds have shifted in favor of stacking Jacksonville thanks to the weather update and game script updates. It seemed as though stacking NYJ was the no brainer til everyone did it. Now there is some value in going the opposite side, as the Jets appear to be going overowned as a team.

As of 7am CST, things are favorings a Jets stack. the value is sitting with them. The odds are sitting with them and they appear to be slightly underowned. This may be due to uncertainty with Trevor. Zach/Garret/Elijah/Bam/Ty/Conklin are all pulling that value up so those are good starting pieces to look further into today.

Vegas

As of now, the Jets only favored by -2.5 (line moved from -1). It is in New York so likely going to be colder than the Jag players are used to. The over is in play but as the weather gets cold, I have less confidence in the overs actually hitting, especially on a short week with wind and rain. But it does look like the Jets could potentially surpass their team total. The real issue outside of the cold is whether or not you trust Zach wilson to do it. F around and find out.

Snap Counts

Carter and Knight are getting about the same snaps. Carter is a lil cheaper with half the ownership and a lil less in usage lately but perhaps worth while to take a shot on. Conklin is slightly more expensive but getting more snaps than both of them. Berrios is also intruiging as he is in the dart section, while getting some snaps, but not getting ownership.

Game Expectations

Both teams could potentially play slightly up in pace, which is why the over has a shot in normal weather and normal non-Zach conditions. Both pass games otherwise average with the Jets facing an average defense against the pass. The real weakness is the Jaguars run defense. Just maybe they attack that way today.

Defense vs Receivers

Based on the defense, it appears that Conklin is for sure our guy (unless he has a creepy backup). The value chart liked him and the defense appears to be paving the way for him to find the endzone. The other side very well could feature Marvin Jones based on how well the defense has played. That is great because the likely candidates for ownership on the Jax side will be Kirk and Zay. Who wants to galaxy brain with me in the large fields?

Projections

Zach is still showing some leverage in the captain spot while Etienne is looking like ok leverage in the Flex. I may skip over him for Knight or Carter though depending on the build. Engram is also intruiging there in the captain slot, depending on how much salary you need to work with.

When stacking the Jags

As mentioned Engram is intruiging for the large GPP captain spots today. That may be something I do in a lineup without Lawrence due to his lack of leverage. Also feeling like fading the kickers but it appears everyone is.

When stacking the Jets

I think Zach Wilson Captain makes the most sense on the other side. The rest may just be preference based, but there is some depth here for Jets leverage in the flex otherwise.

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