NFL Showdown - Seattle Seahawks vs San Francisco 49ers - Dec 15 2022

Thursday night division rivalry game with some interesting potential ahead! Follow the data to the lineup and hope no one gets injured on your side of the fense!

Updated 7pm CST

Odds vs Salary

There are 3 guys dominating the field in usage. My least favorite of them is the obvious DK but he is also the least owned of the bunch. If he comes in half the ownership of McCaffrey, you know what I'm gonna do..

Bottom side, we start getting Jennings / Jones / Dissly at a much less owned rate, followed by Colby. Typically worth getting names above the line (at least 3) to make for value to pay up for names above the line. Seems that Seattle value is much higher than SF today, yet SF is still showing as underowned per their odds. Sounds like a dual build ahead for me again.

Vegas vs My lines

Its a home game for Seattle, and with Deebo's injury, it seems that the line for Seattle is only +3, which means there is an opportunity to say that SF covers this as I believe the line should be otherwise +5 with Deebo. I also have the game total about 6 points over projected, but injuries do matter so lets see how the lineups look tonight.

Defense vs Receivers

A couple dart plays that may actually pan out for TDs - Jennings and Goodwin. They align well to this defense and are likely to go lesser owned than the top options. Mccafrey also in a great spot to catch passes.

Snaps

Its worth looking for jumps between week 13 and week 14 due to Deebo going out and also paying attention to snaps that may go down this week in Seattle. I see Ray-Ray's participation definitely improved, while Jennings did not. Goodwin also showed a spike last week.

Projections and Leverage

It is early but very likely that CMC goes to the flex spots only for me at that price. I'd be curious his history on Thursday nights as far as how much or how little teams tend to use him on the short week.

If stacking SF

Ultimately we all believe that SF will win this game. They should dominate through rushing as they have great advantages expected in run blocking as well as in the defense line in getting stops. Therefore CMC is tough to get away from. I also think Deebo being out slows them a little and that increases the SF kicker odds of success tonight (flex for me). That leaves Purdy Aiyuk and Kittle as the top options for captain, although Jennings is intruiging too if you want extra salary for top plays. Jordan Mason may be a thing at Captain in the largest of fields.

If stacking SEA

Personally I'm less likely to get to the Seattle kicker. However he seems to be the only play on this side showing any leverage up top. I think the leverage you might get is playing 4 SEA guys together (Smith/DK/Lockett/Walker or rotate one of them out with Goodwin).

Both QBs appear to make good captains. I dont necessarily love the QB spots on either team, but if either rush one in, it is the cheat code to showdown points. As of now, a stand I am making is that I will play either MetCalf or CMC, but not both.