NFL Showdown - Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs New Orleans Saints

I will be a bit short timed today but wanted to get some data points out there for ya.

Odds vs Salary

Above the trend line plays are the most value behind them. You will likely need at least 3 or 4 of those plays in your lineup every showdown. The higher plays tend to be the ones with the most usage over the last few weeks.

Full disclosure, I never build 3-3 stacks in showdown. Instead I will have 4-2 everywhere or 5-1 even possibly. Which side gets 4? I always target the team who is underowned -> which is the Saints. Even if they lose the game, as long as they dont get their arses beat like the colts did last night, they can end up being in the optimal as the 4 stack with volume.

Vegas

Fortunately I have this projecting as a "close" low scoring game, with Tampa barely covering and the game total barely under. Since it is close, it supports my theory that we should all 4 stack the Saints and hope this score comes to life. Not a lot of touchdowns available in these projections to blow the roof off the volume plays or everyone's favorite: kickers and defenses.

Game Script:

Neither anticipated game script is favorable to the pass game. The script does lean run on both ends although I will not avoid QBs or WRs to get there. Just a thought to keep in mind.

Defense vs Receivers

It could get a lil hairy here. I see some holes in the passing defense for New Orleans that favors WR1 and WR3. I cant tell you who is who in that Tampa offense though. New Orleans has similar issue but we know Olave and Landry are likely in the top 2, with Juwan Johnson as the likely TE to catch a td. On top of that, Kamara is elite enough to outplay the strong defense against pass catching RBs.

Snap Counts

Just posting this here in the event we need to consider dart plays (anyone with single digit ownership for a cheap td). It could happen and it'd be more likely to matter than last night. Sotty Miller and Cade Otton fall in that territory (more so Otton).

Projections and Leverage

If we are playing Bucs, Tom Brady makes for a good captain play. Maybe Mike evans too but thats about all I think make sense there. If playing Saints, Andy Dalton is intruiging for captain, and so is Olave. For a deeper dart you could consider Russel Gage for captain if that lets you jam em in.

This may be the only update I get out today unfortunately but good luck to those playing!