NFL Superbowl Showdown - Kansas City Chiefs vs Philadelphia Eagles - Feb 2023

It is almost time to begin the final NFL showdown of the year. In this article, we will look at how to attack the largest field GPPs when it comes to draftkings builds. I'll break down each factor. The numbers will change leading up to kickoff but this will give some bits towards decision making.

Updated: 4:55 pm CST

Expectations vs Salary

Update: The value has shifted towards KC. However its the Eagles who still look underowned for their odds of success. AJ and Miles Sanders appear to go underowned a little bit despite not having any value to show for themselves.

It seems that everything including ownership is favoring the Eagles right now. Hurts has the highest upside (and ownership) per his spot on the trend line. Philly has the higher team odds and value as well. It would seem that RBs and WRs are not picking up as much ownership as they should because of QB ownership and TE ownership as well. Something to watch. On the dart side of things, Justin Watson, Sky Moore, and Boston Scott appear to have the lowest of ownership expected.

Vegas vs My Team Totals

It seems the money line is properly set around 2 points. However I have the game going under the total by 2 points and each team going under by 1. That makes me consider kickers when that happens, in addition to the run games. If I build 2 lineups, I'm likely going to stack 4 from each team and 2 from the opponent despite this potentially being a close game.

Defense vs Receivers

KC may find success with one of the auxillary WRs. This would be a great spot for Mecole except he's ruled out. That could be MVS if Toney is healthy. Or Justin Watson? Skyy Moore? Or maybe they really use the pass catching backs such as Mckinnon a bit more as Philly ranks 24th against pass catching backs. CEH is also back so the split is really going to be messy.

Philadelphia will have WR1, TE and RB at their disposal. One thing to note is that this is season long DVP. Some defense has been changed in KC over the last few weeks which means that it wont be as clear cut as it once was. AJ will make a ton of sense regardless.

Projections

Ideally will have at least 3 guys with a 20% probability or higher in my lineup and that may be easier done on the Philly side with 5 options to choose from. Hurts, Kelce and Mahomes have so much usage tied to them that its difficult to get away from them in any lineup. AJ and Devontae are also viable from a usage standpoint, but they make more sense in captain than flex.

When Stacking KC

From the looks of things, I'm not entirely a fan of KC captains today personally but if I did, Butker, Kelce and Mahomes are my favorite choices. Its sorta there for Juju and MVS as well but they are very thin plays.

When Stacking PHI

There is a condensed Eagles team here with the primary weapons all showing as great captain plays. Smith is my current favorite for my primary build. Kenneth Gainwell is also a low owned dart who might be good to include in the build of this stack.

Summary

I'm from KC and naturally I will be rooting for and building my KC stacks carefully. The volume tends to filter to certain players (Kelce/Juju) and I believe Reid will find a way to get the ball to his best players. In both cases of builds, I think having a sub 10% play makes a ton of sense today and therefore getting to a sub 2K play makes sense to me today to fit in the studs. As of now, Kelce and AJ are my two favorite captain plays. Good luck!

Check in on later for more insights as the numbers do change when the game gets closer.