NFL Thanksgiving Day Slate - Draftkings - November 23 2022

Ceilings

Only 3 games to choose from which makes 6 QBs. Josh Allen is a clear smash spot vs Detroit who gets smashed all the time. However.... there is a case to be made to get away from him at the proposed ownership. Whatif... Singletary eats his lunch. Whatif, Kirk Cousins has a bounce back week. Whatif Dak and Daniel Jones frees up enough salary to pay up to someone else? Those are the questions I will begin the day with. I circled some low owned (and low probability) guys with a decent ceiling today if you want to go against the grain. Onto the positional!

QB

When you commpare value vs similar usage, this slate is screaming pivot. I cant believe Kirk is back in play as the potential best value. Hes a direct pivot to Dak which means I'm fading Dak today. Similar usage but almost 1/4 the ownership projected from Allen. His matchup is going to be intruiging as the Patriots are a top pass defense. I dont care -I'm going in for one of my long shot lineups.

Daniel Jones is actually playable too because of his rushing upside. Imagine he runs in 2 tds -> then we have the next Justin Fields on our hands. Just theoretically speaking at that level of ownership projected. Josh Allen is still the eye test play, but I'm going to start my first build without him.

RB

The RB position is nasty for Thanksgiving. 3 teams with very heavy splits at RB (Dallas, New England, and Detroit). We can see Stevenson has still owned the backfield the most over the past 5 weeks. Part of that is based on Harris being out though so I'm not entirely sure I want to eat his chalk yet unless I find the right game script for it. Jamal Williams, Harris and Ezekiel Elliot are intruigingly low ownership for their splits and Barkley isnt all that highly owned for his usage. He's just not as good of a value play. Cook also shows some leverage there, granted not value. Dallas and Buffalo both face the softest run defenses.

WR

The top tier is pretty wide open here with Lamb, Jefferson and Diggs. The cheap guys are so low owned that I'm intruiged to get two cheap WRs to differentiate. We saw last week what can happen with paying up to Lamb and Jefferson.. unless they are saving it all for this week. Slayton is a direct pivot to Meyers who I like and Jefferson is a direct pivot to Diggs who I dont love.

TE

Schultz? Jonnu? Even Cager? Anyone but Hockenson and Knox for me.

Vegas

This is where some things come crashing down. Pivoting to Daniel Jones is difficult when we only expect maybe 2 tds or less from NY. The Kirk pivot also hurts when theres even less expected points. The only one that stands up? Jarod Goff or some combo of RBs to get them points? Thats rough. But I do have Detroit covering this spread for what its worth. How do they get there?

For DFS purposes, I can see a path to getting leverage by playing more of the New England game and less of the Buffalo / Detroit game if you want to stay balanced.

Pace and Situation

Well things just got a little more tricky with pivoting off of Josh. Based on every metric, he should roll Detroit by air and ground. They also pass often when leading. Fading Allen is like hoping for an injury or soreness in his shoulder. Or if you believe in the jam em in method where you get to high priced RBs and WRs with a cheap QB, then thats the only other way to make sense of a fade unfortunately.

Defense vs Receivers

There are some sharp filters to certain pass catchers in some games like Thielen and the Giants WR2/TE. Detroit sorta shows up as more intruiging if you know who is catching passes out of the backfield (likely Swift?). If going Goff, a RB + WR1 stack may make sense. I could also see some ownership saving if going Allen, down to Davis or anyone else really. Dalton Schultz = still my favorite play on the slate so I'm sticking to him in all lineups.

Summary

Dallas in a divisional game looks like they could put up the most points on the slate so I'm going to favor that game. Bump to the running backs and rushing QB stealing goal line carries. Dallas defense is something I might go right back to if not New England vs the Vikings.

Projections

These projections are based on the data I put together above. I gotta say my pivot dreams are low right now, but there is a pathway to Schultz being locked in and Jacobi Meyers being one of the better plays on the slate. Funny his QB isnt in the top 5 projections though, but maybe that makes him stackable. Check back before lock for final touches!

Showdown (Buf vs Det)

Looking at showdown at the same time to see if it lends a hand towards how to attack this game. I am going to build 2 lineups: 1 Detroit based and one obvious Bills based. I'm likely to stick Allen in the flex of both, but neither in captain for sure. I have this feeling that 4 Detroit players in the winning lineup is a possibility today so I'll see it through.

Showdown NYG vs Dallas

I think this is a good slate to take shots on random Giant WRs because no one really knows the pecking order ahead. Marcus Johnson maybe?

Looks like QB captains today are very much in play on either side. I have a thought of taking extra Giants for value so I may just start this build with Daniel Jones and hoping for the best from there.

Last Call - Minn vs NE

Stevenson and Kirk are up there in terms of usage. I am thinking Theilan and Meyers down the stretch for difference makers.

Meyers likely gonna be locked into the capt spot for me. Otherwise not sure what I'll do, but got 30 mins to do it! Good luck!