NFL Week 1 Odds, Leverage and Analysis for Draftkings GPP - Sept 2025

Using 2024 data mixed alongside with 2025 depth charts, we are tasked with estimating workloads despite coaching changes and player changes in the trenches. I will likely rely on teams not fixing their problems from last year when it coms to holes in the defense. The goal isnt going to be to know everything, but rather find the top ownership spot (or 2) where the field is wrong, or worth pivoting off to another situation.

Updated!

Ceiling Finder

Looking at the 2024 data / mostly 2nd half of the year, so you wont see any rookies here as we simply don't have their expected points yet. Players that only played a few games might be skewed to the top - like Justin Fields final game had him way above the top until I added back the average of several others. Now we have Bo Nix as the top point of this chart. Some others like Geno are on new teams but could still see high usage. Cade Otton looks like a high value for the price and ownership.

Vegas Expectations

We have the Washington / Giants game projecting the highest overall points, next to Green Bay/Detroit and Tampa / Atlanta as the 3rd. Then some individual team totals that are high. All of those teams have a pretty solid core from last year playing, while some teams like the Giants have tried to improve their offensive lines / Atlanta has worked on their defensive line, so this is definitely going to be a risk reward week. Denver is in the realm of possible and so is Seattle on the late slate, although they lost their two best WRs and QB so..

Chase has sorta bubbled up in ownership projections along with James Connor, since players are looking for safe points first (makes sense). Ownership mostly heading to Cleveland/Cincinatti with expectations that the defenses are both garbage. Miami / IND and Tampa / Atl seem to be 2nd and 3rd, so the Washington game starts out with appeal if ownership isn't heading there.

Summary of Situations

Getting a look over the entire slate and identifying some of my top plays based on what we know. One consideration to know is that the data surrounding my defenses is gone. I built a new system to project which defenses have the potential to be top scoring which is partly why this took so long. It is also based on last year's data so it will be tough to tell whether or not I need to change things until at least week 3 or 4. For now though.. I'll start with the positional data we have. Defenses at the top are Denver, Jets, and surprisingly Cleveland per that summary. Cleveland could be a good deep gpp play if it pans out but much higher risk than say Denver or the Jets, who get some weird revenge narratives going on.

QB

The usage for QBs is kinda flat but we do get to see some clear above the line plays in Mayfield, or a more expensive Purdy are good. If I look at my sims data (2024 based) it would lead me towards Bryce Young, Tua or Justin Fields range. I dont necessarily like any of their situations unless Justin Fields is able to rush for long plays against a Steelers defense set up to stop the run. It does feel like a play I may make one out of 10 for the long shot.

RB

As of this writing CMC is on the injury report and missing from my view- I'll review that in a second but for now, Bijan is the top RB showing in a top game environment. Tampa usually stops the run well but I may take a shot there. A deep shot might be Jerome Ford as the starter for Cleveland in a lineup that uses the Cleveland defense. That would just be for value as it seems the average spend expected is around 6100 at RB.

WR

On quick peek, there are several guys showing similar expected points as Chase, but for a lower price which is nice. I see Garrett Wilson and Metcalf close to the top of the usage (Jets vs Pitt) for low ownership, so things are looking interesting if wanting to go for high points in that game that features two strong defenses. No one trusting Kupp atop of the list for low ownership if wanting to go there. It appears that paying down at WR is the way to go so I'm going to fade Chase this week and hope that is the mistake lineups are making.

TE

Cade Otton stands out quite a bit for low ownership expectations so between him and Brock Bowers, that looks the most interesting. However I am going to look at the WR vs defense chart to see who is historically bad at coverage:

Laporta, McBride, and Strange all stand out.. It is possible some names are off in this listing per their new situation so LMK if changes are needed.

Optimal Percentages

These players showed up the most when crunching lineups by my projections. As mentioned, I am fading Chase but perhaps an idea of how things might lean.

Top 5 Projections per Position

I almost forgot! Here is how things are looking for my top projected positions.

Weather (rotogrinders)

Hope this helps this week with finalization of choices.