NFL Week 14 - Draftkings and Fanduel - Dec 10th 2022

Ok lets get right to it. I'm already seeing some weird things pop out and you will understand what I mean here

Ceilings vs Salary

On two weeks of data, Mike White shows he has upside to price him higher than he currently shows. McCaffrey is going under owned - why? The top end WRs seem to have the ownership so no secrets there. I still recommnd finding the holes where they exist. Onto the positional!

QB

We mentioned Mike white already at this position. It is unclear as to whether QB is somewhere you should get off the chalk. I think Goff is the clear best play on the slate. Too easy. However you can always pivot and there are several guys in the same price range who you could play if you wanted.

RB

McCafrey is back and a top usage for the week if you can afford him. I know Henry is popular but I'm seeing him as a fade candidate this week on Draftkings based on his usage in the last several weeks. He has elite history vs the Jags, but lately his usage has been down and that makes him a fade candidate. I'm circling the piles of underowned names who have shown usage in previous weeks. RB is the position you least likely need to get contrarian with most weeks but having one pivot here is possible. I'm liking Elliot over Pollard just because of the ownership discount directly on Pollard.

WR

Now what makes Mike White interesting again will be that Diggs is our top WR option in terms of usage, making the runback possible. he would be leverage off of St Brown if you were to try and avoid a popular (yet good) play. Godwin, I have as taking over WR1 in Tampa after Evans simply stopped getting the work. Then theres Garrett Wilson to pair him with potentially. Chris Godwin also seems to be falling between the cracks, yet could be a pivot point from Ceedee. I'll also call out Aiyuck as someone no one seems to be playing this week so will see how he projects.

If playing Henry, it seems you could also include a Jax WR runback - maybe Zay Jones or Kirk to offset the ownership some.

TE

It appears that the scale has finally shifted Kelce and Andrews out of the value territory, which means, Dalton schultz is someone I will start with. Hockenson is also intruiging to get off the chalkiest Detroit option there is in WR. Andrews does project well and with a cheap Huntley it makes sense that he can pair well. I wont go too far off the grid in TE otherwise. Hockenson ownership likely is going to be higher than most.

Vegas vs My totals

So the Jets... only projecting for 19 points from me and thats kinda sad. Not sure I can see it with that stack afterall but may throw it in as a cheap gpp dart in case Mike runs one of the 2 tds in. We can see why folks are on Detroit and Minnesota pretty clearly. The Buffalo stack is still live here.

Infact, that game has high expected fantasy points but not that high of ownership so its worth monitory, same with the Tampa / SF game, granted I have a very low game total showing there.

Defense vs Receivers

I will call out something and take back what I said about Brady. I think there is a stack worth looking into - Brady to Julio, assuming Julio is WR3 on this team. SF continues to struggle to cover teams with 3 WRs. Last week I bet Trent Sherfield to go off in this spot and he caught first 75 yard td of the game. Mecole Hardman had 3 TDs when the chiefs played them. Imagine what a Julio could do in that spot. I will play a Brady stack once I look into it further.

Summary

Here is a summary of the situations ahead. Lamar is out so obviously Huntley is in play. Dallas defense and RB are likely in good spots. Also noting that Russell Wilson and Ryan Tannehill could be intruiging based on the situations they are expected to face today.

Projections

Jared Goff is the top QB play in projections. He also has a top projected WR and RB in the mix so I do believe the Detroit side of this matchup is going to be the safer side. Other stacks exist like Dak to Dalton and Burrow to Chase/Higgins. This should be an interesting week!

Good luck!