NFL Week 14 Showdown, Mainslate and more! Analysis for Draftkings Tournaments Dec 2025

It is week 14 and while some would say that the season is almost over, I prefer to say that the time is now. Thursday night football is going to kick off with some uncertainty, and uncertainty brings opportunity to be different as everyone jumps on the same player or 2. From here on out, I am going to focus my attention on fading the top or top 2 ownership plays because that is the easiest way to begin the journey to a solo shipping lineup. Lets see how the showdown lines up this week!

updated: 936 am

Main Slate

First things first, we identify the players with the highest upside based on workload to potentially find some core plays. Brissett and Ja'Marr Chase have had the highest average workload over the past 5 games, so either could fit that category, especially at sub 10% ownership. Matchups matter too so we will need to evaluate that, although we do know that Arizona is missing some key players (MHJ) which also helps make him a stronger play of the two. Chase Brown showing sub 5% ownership at RB yet highest workload will be interesting too. Trey McBride leads the TE. The question to answer at this point is, which position matters the most towards having a high floor? None of those names are highly owned so it would be interesting if all 4 (from 2 teams) fit one lineup. There are low owned notables in here too such as the 4k-5k QBs, Erik Ayomayer for potential value and almost unowned stack, and others. We may touch on them in the positional section.

Vegas vs My projections

Buffalo vs Cincinatti appears to be the game of the week, while everything else appears to be sub 50 points in the vegas markets. While I only project 19 total points for the Bengals, the low ownership is interesting to me vs the Bills, who I dont see as an elite defense. Most teams are low projected this week so this will be interesting. Arizona, Atlanta, Cleveland, Jacksonville, and Buffalo are all teams who project over their team totals as home favorites.

Offensive vs Defensive lines

Tennessee, NYJ, and Vegas all look to play uphill this week in pass protection, while Pit, Den, Buf and LA all appear to protect well if they need to pass the ball. I'd also suggest that Jax, Ind, PIT, LA, and maybe Denver will have the ability to run the ball as long as they keep their protection schemes together.

Defense vs Recievers

Referring to this as we select receiving options because knowing where the holes are give a bit of confidence in plays. JSN gets yet another smash spot this week vs ATL so he could be important if the price is right. He appears stackable with the RB as well. Jamarr and Cook both project highly in the same game against each other.

Top Receiver Scores

As noted early in the year, the WRs who sit here tend to be in the best position to do work. Shaheed is an outlier due to his time in New Orleans vs Seattle. In the future I will only look at last 5 games for this scoring system. Puka and Davonte both show up here which is interesting, although price wise it isnt looking likely that a double stack will pan out. Tre Tucker is the lowest owned of the group.

Projections by Position

Stafford double stack would be nice but that will require a mountain of value to pan out, likely forcing a double TE build to get there. Lets take a look at the summary of situations to figure out where we might find some plays.

Summary of Situations

In the top down build, I recommend prioritizing Buffalo, Rams and Jacksonville plays first. Buffalo gets Cincinatti as the worst run defense, but Cinci also gets buffalo right back as the 2nd worst defense. Play them both? Could work out as both RBs have big play potential, but I am prioritizing James Cook, who checks all the boxes for me to have a big RB game. That means I may prioritize the Rams passing game. Jacksonville is a mystery at this time as to which direction to go to get their points. Both Trevor and Travis Ettienne are sub 5% owned though so maybe that is stackable in itself. There is a slight lean to the run game just due to the run blocking available to Jacksonville over Indy.

Ownership Crunch

Based on Saturday's run, this is how the ownership (not projections) is crunching out. Most likely this would be the highest owned lineup on the slate if ownership is accurate as of now. I use this to figure out which popular plays might actually be worth holding onto. If I were to guess right now, Cook and Puka are my favs on the surface, while Jacobs and Wilson have merit too, due to injuries. I will try to hold onto two of those names as my way of forcing myself onto a chalk piece. Too much leverage can hurt.

Optimal Projections

If only playing the projections, this lineup is interesting as it takes all my top projected plays and ends up with a Bills double stack, my top DST and two good RBs. I see that Breece Hall faces the top DST, so I will do one more with that contraint to block that.

Bills stack comes up still with Pittman and Tyler Warren double stacked/no QB, so maybe there is something to play off of in lineup construction. Aaron Jones showing up is interesting as well vs Washington just due to the price point. One thing I am noting is that Knox is in all 3 entries. Lets see if any positions can open up plays.

QB

When I break down the QB chart, none of the sim QBs feel great, but of the list, Baker seems to be in the best position, with a WR in the top scoring WR list as well. The issue with Baker would be that his pass protection may not be able to hold up entirely, and he is below the trend line for value. That makes playing a Brissett, Bo Nix or a straight dart possible. Better yet, if we want to reestablish a reason to play any of the sim QBs, lets look at QBs with sub 5% ownership projected with their WR1 projecting under 10%:

This week there are several skinny stacks available for next to no ownership. Trevor Lawrence being in this mix is interesting with his team projecting a good total. Daniel Jones to Pittman is also something to think about if we think that game could be competitive (which is possible as a division rivalry with playoff implications).

RB

RB seems to have 1 solid RB choice that could be chalk of the slate- and then everyone else. That chalk is also somewhat dependant on the Bengals not jumping out to a lead or forcing Buffalo to pass. On the flip side, there are lower owned RBs that project better at less ownership, and then some that have higher expected points for less salary. The sims would be asking for a pay down at RB so a Chase Brown, Jeanty, Ettiene or Henry all would look good from this chart as GPP plays.

WR

WR has a bit of interesting pieces this week. The chalk is a cheaper WR this week than usual with Michael Wilson. I understand that folks are out and his workload goes up for value. I just dont see a reason to force it when there are so many low owned options that project better. Even Puka seems to over project a bit when Adams can be played under 10% owned. QBs in good spots are teams I prioritize for WRs so Franklin is interesting at sub 5% owned/pivot off Wilson potentially.

TE

TE looks to be spread thin and there are some interesting spots here. 1st knowing that Wilson is chalk, seeing McBride under 10% owned is almost a forced pivot. Then I see a few others that project well that have single digit ownership, including the top sim play at 3200, Loveland. All this to say that double te might make sense this week if no one is expected to get really chalky at these positions.

Weather (rotogrinders)

Jacksonville vs Indy looks fadable after all and Buffalo/Tenn looks a bit rough too with snow.

Top Ownership and Pivot Potential

The highest owned games are the rams/arizona and then buffalo/cinci. The two players that I have on highest alert for pivot potential: James Cook and Michael Wilson.

We know why they are good players (Cook in a smash spot, no MHJ in Arizona) and so we can at least understand why the chalk would land here. But the question to ask is "What if they fail? Who benefits?".

James Cook: I can see a couple paths to where pivot could work here although I will play some Cook. The game is in the snow, which could impact his speed and/or bust the entire game. Cincinatti could play from a lead. Josh Allen could vulcher his touchdowns.

Top pivots: 1. Chase Brown is a cheaper play, with 1/10 of the ownership but yet has had more upside than Cook over the past 5 games.

2. Josh Allen the ultimate touchdown vulcher, especially if the Bills fall behind.

3. Ray Davis (or backup RB) - who could also vulcher touchdowns today.

Michael Wilson: WIlson has had some good games without MHJ in the lineup. However there are a couple paths where this could go wrong.

1. Trey Mcbride expected to play at under 10% ownership. More expensive but if he got the touchdowns Wilson expected, then that would kill Wilsons value.

2. Rams Defense is only 3.8% owned but does show a very slight advantage over the pass blocking. if they get to Brisset enough, Brisset wont get to Wilson.

3. Opposing WR (Puka or Adams). - Adams is the lower owned of the two so that would be my preference.

4. Arizona Run game - something I wont touch but Bam Knight or Michael Carter could end up getting the work.

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Point Expectations vs Salary (last 5 weeks) (updated)

Dak and Ceedee tower over everyone with Gibbs and Pickens showing decent workload in the same span. I made the executive decision to remove ASB although he is questionable, because it is much more difficult to rerun all my tools if he is ruled out as opposed to just plugging him in based on his leverage.

One lesson learned last week was that we should identify those showdown plays who end up 20% owned or less, especially higher up on the chart, so I did my best to identify them through circle and underlined the borderline one that is highest up. Ownership will shift as the day goes on. Then we have the dart section as well with a couple names in the left quadrant at single digit ownership. If this slate leans jam-em-in, we likely need one of those darts like Hunter to seal the deal in the flex. Kennedy is way too popular for my liking.

Vegas Totals vs Projections

The total is high, and so is my projected; however I have it slightly under the team total Vegas projects. If the game goes under, just imagine that it will miss by 7-10 points. If it goes over, the same thing happens on average. But most will play to the expectation, meaning passing is expected. Dallas is slightly covering this spread so my lean is more on Dallas players in my mind. However the consolidation of Detroit players with ASB potentially out makes it quite tough to not get to their players an equal amount.

Projections

Jameson Williams and Gibbs are both the top two contenders on my end for the most points on this slate. I wont rule out defenses entirely as that seems like something most people will want no part of. However what if the cowboys actually show up defensively today, after beating the Eagles and Chiefs at home? Would we really be surprised?

WRs vs Defense

WR1 on both ends ought to be in good spots. Pickens is designated but that could easily mean Lamb here. Then Isaac lurking down there too, granted he is expected to be in 30% of lineups.

Early Leverage

Just pulling the entire list for now, which shows Gibbs as the top captain option, but also the top captain ownership. I'm seeing some value in the dallas side when it comes to points left on the table over the past 5 weeks. Dak + Ceedee + Javonte havent been scoring as much as they should have, so they could see a point uptick if Detroit defense lets up. Tom Kennedy appears to be the biggest benefactor to the missing ASB so there might be some leverage even at high ownership with him.

Dallas Stacks

Dak is showing better captain leverage than flex, but I think he has enough floor for either side. Ceedee is a stronger captain play for leverage though. Javonte Williams is also showing captain leverage with Jake Ferguson as well. The utility spots start getting to leverage at Brandon Aubrey. A 400 Lupke is a heck of a dart but if he falls into the endzone at that price and sub 5% ownership, maybe thats a boost up the leaderboard with a jam em in build.

Detroit Stacks

Gibbs has the most leverage at captain on the board, but yet will be the highest owned captain too. Goff/Montgomery also have captain leverage but less intriguing to me. Teslaa has some flex leverage showing along with Bates and Kennedy. Lions DST is the first flex leverage with sub 10% ownership showing.

Stats from my Sims

This is some output regarding who the trap plays might be today, as well as some potential long shot leverage as of now. Interestingly Cowboys defense and/or Aubrey are shining, while Williams/Gibbs/Montgomery are all sorta bust material. I dont expect all those names to bust but i would use those 5 names with caution.

If Gibbs fails, who benefits the most? Probably one of these 3 and I lean Lamb or Javonte Williams the most here. If we believe in the dallas defense, Javonte would be interesting after a quiet Thanksgiving.

Some of the top lineup leverage that the sims produced when generating this simulation.

Stack recommendations?

What this is telling me is that there were more 5-1 stacks in the top 1% of lineups than any other stack type. I will be adding 1 for each team to the best of my ability. In both of them I will likely feature the defense with the rest of the stack pieces as this game seems to lean towards one of them being in the winner if gaining leverage.

Optimal Lineup

Interestingly the optimal lineup gave me a 5-1 Detroit stack. However its worth noting that it came back with a negative ROI meaning, I'm not playing it. But thats how the projections pull it