NFL Week 12 - Showdown and Main Slate Leverage Points for Draftkings DFS Tournaments Nov 2025

Real life has been slowing up my posting schedule a bit but as we hit the holidays, I am going to do my best to cover as much as possible. I think this is a great time of year to take advantage of these tournaments when others are traveling and distracted. Lets start with showdown and check back for main slate.

SF vs CAR Insights added Monday 2:58pm CST

MNF Expectations vs Salary

Before ever touching the slate, its important to understand what your gut feeling is saying in order to figure out what might be a good angle vs the grain. Its safe to say that most people expect SF to roll Carolina out of town with CMC being highly involved, thus high chalk expectations as a result. He is the most expensive and highest usage over the past 5 weeks so that explains why he will likely fall around 25-30 captain owned. Purdy and McMillian are next closest to him, with Rico being overshadowed slightly. Then we get a random Tonges dart for really cheap, if Kittle doesnt eat up all the available TE work.

Vegas Expectations

I do see a relatively high game total and spread at -7 from the Vegas perspective. However where my initial thinking differs is that there is opportunity for Carolina to cover the spread to the tune of 3 touchdowns. I have the game going under the implied total which means that we would need SF to underperform for some types of builds to succeed, but that is definitely where differentiation could come from.

Defense vs Recievers

Carolina has a few places that stand out on offense but their defense is more interesting to me. They funnel heavily to WR1 and TE, while being solid against other spots. That means that the SF passing game ought ot project well vs Carolina for a couple plays. Carolina may not necessarily succeed as much with WR1 as WR2 and WR3 have much easier paths to success.

Redzone Usage for Recieving

These players are the most likely to be used in the redzone / scoring touchdowns. McMillian has the ideal score but not so ideal in ownership. Id say Sanders is the 2nd best of the plays on the list.

Carolina Leverage (updated 6:10 pm)

Rico Dowdle, Bryce, and Tet are all showing captain leverage moreso than flex, but all their points are consolidated to them 3, which makes a 4-2 Carolina build interesting if going there. Fitzgerld and Coker are the best looking flex plays for Carolina leverage.

It is way too early to suggest the real stacks but at least getting an idea where I might be favoring plays; all 3 of the top plays in Carolina appear to have more leverage at captain than in the flex. The kicker for Carolina is showing the best utility leverage. Rico and McMillian are projecting over the current standard projections for me so I am leaning their direction if using them in captain.

San Fran Leverage (updated)

updated: CMC is looking like the strongest capt on the slate, but also very restrictive. Kittle is the next best captain play. I am in the mindset of fading Purdy this week just to change the direction of my build from the field, especially when playing CMC. Matt Gay is interesting too in the flex, with low projections on ownership. That would also take away from Purdy if field goals end up scoring when touchdowns are expected.

CMC, Kittle and Jennings all currently show some captain leverage right now, with the kicker as a viable flex leverage as well. The kicker is more interesting on this side of the fense, if we think SF has a let down towards getting their team total today. Very much could be due to failed redzone touchdowns. Bourne is showing some extra leverage for some reason so maybe something to watch for later in the day.

Optimizer Strategies towards Leverage

I took a look at 4 different data sets of optimal percentages; 1 normal, 1 with cmc locked in captain, 1 with cmc locked in flex, and one without CMC at all. This is to understand the range of outcomes with regards to lineup construction if he succeeds or fails. Which players go up and down in every one of those angles? Heres my AI based breakdown from the 4 data sets combined:

It would seem that the key to this slate could be a Chuba Hubbard play potentially. His recent history has been absolute garbage, but if no one is going to play him because of Rico ownership, then it would seem to be a decent play at his price point + ownership. Maybe he vulchers a touchdown for example. If not Chuba, one of the defenses or Bourne/Bryce might provide that leverage. Carolina defense might even pair well with Chuba, allowing for the higher upside plays to fill the rest of the lineup elsewhere. One thing for sure is that CMC + Purdy is being played together at a high rate so potentially breaking them apart will set your lineup apart too. With that said, these are AI generated lineup concepts to maximize leverage based on optimal percentages:

If you are going to play any of them, yolo to you but I still recommend finding 1-2 pieces to differentiate. Here is how the projections look when optimized; pretty much aligning to the findings above:

Keep in mind also that Chuba may simply be overprojected, causing all this noise, as he hasnt hit 10 pts since week 2.

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Main Slate Opportunity vs Salary (last 5 weeks)

I am kinda surprised to see that Brisett and McBride continue to lead the usage charts after last week + still lower priced. The ownership could totally end up going to that stack though again, which forces us to consider other alternatives that can beat it (aka Josh Allen last Sunday). I will say after doing a pass through, McBride is in a good spot which means it may be a great cash game stack at the least. Dak may be the next best bet and his starting percentage is 2% ownership so that is something to look into as we figure out our receivers and game environments that make sense. Trevor Lawrence being 3rd makes an interesting option too up top, as he faces Brissett which makes for a good high usage game environment. Justin Jefferson and Ettiene are both the top skill positions showing in my mind of interest since they have lower ownership, without knowing their matchups.

Vegas Totals

New England vs Cincinatti is going to be a problem on this slate as it projects the highest total, and we know what Cinci has done for other team's point totals in the past. That tells me Drake Maye gonna pull some ownership. I see a couple other games of interest too, or at least teams with high totals that we will display in the summary section. Here I do look at teams with the ability to cover the spread for viable leverage points. Detroit vs NY Giants might be the largest spread that might end up getting covered potentially.

Key Injuries

Some key injuries that I saw this Saturday - might lead to opportunities for others to hit value. Maybe in Jacksonville with both WR1 and TE1 down, something gives here. Definitely need to see them projections.

Projections by Position

As projected, Maye is the top option projecting at QB, but I dont see any of his WRs in the WR section which makes things possible to get away from. Cinci without Chase this week opens up some value with Higgins and others. Ownership is a bit stale so dont hold these numbers to heart just yet. However Browns are back as my top DST option and it makes sense vs the raiders so maybe a chalk eating experience this week ahead.

Summary of Situations

This is my favorite top down page for finding the teams to target down to the situations we can target. I focus on rushing first, such as New England rushing, as that appears to be a thing this week. More on the way about these lists as we look into the positions.

Defense vs Recievers

This will be a good reference, especially in relation to the WR target list. I still believe that starting with your favorite WR is the key to stacking. Who can get 100 yards and 2 touchdowns? Tee Higgins and AJ Brown certainly have some nice matchups ahead.

Top WR Scores

Our WRs that could potentially go off are listed here. One of my thoughts with stacks is that if taking a chalky QB, definitely stay away from his WR1. If taking a chalky WR, the low owned QB could still pan out in the stack. Diggs is the first name I'm looking at because Cincinatti has been decent against WR1 and WR2, and hes under 10% projected ownership as a result. WR3 in that offense might go underowned as well so there is double stack energy there. Also noting Pickens back to Dak is interesting to me.

Simulated Results

We are looking for QBs who can get us 28 or more points this week. WR seems to be coming in lower than RB so likely paying up for RB. Chase Brown was chalk and may stay in my lineups regardless.

QB

QB has several viable options this week and therefore I dont think you have to eat chalk this week at this position (which I never do). The top projected QBs sorta fall off the value side of the trend line, which then shows Daniel Jones and Brissett as interesting from a projection standpoint. Id probably go Josh Downs if stacking Jones vs KC.

Sims has only given 4 QBs in the range of possible, and Caleb seems to live on this chart in that range as having a good situation. Will he do anything with it? Absolutely not... although I will say that Rome is showing in a good spot, and therefore I will play one. My favorite lineup as of now is going to be Darnold based today.

RB

I circled 4 contenders based on oline dline matchups and projections, where they have good value. I look at a few other names with super low ownership but yet could have a good situation to tee off (JT and Henderson). I also think Derrick Henry is in a good spot for a rushing touchdown today, although I forgot to circle him.

WR

I think Njigba is one of the most interesting plays today, with his high projection yet half the ownership of St Brown projected. Also Pickens too, but then I see some very low owned guys on the board like JJ, and Parker Washington in value positions. Shaheed is still showing 1% ownership so a Seattle double stack is even something worth consideration. Many of the other plays that I could find in those lists are below the value line.

TE

Really just play Trey McBride and be happy today. Hes in a smash spot and he has

Optimizer

Sim Leverage Plays

Brissett ownership seems to be on the rise from what the sims projected here but I do think Maye is going to be more chalkier than him, making him interesting. Michael Wilson is coming in way too chalky for me though to stack with him.

These stacks appear to be popping out as viable. I didnt think about Darnold to Kupp til this moment.. Goff to Williams could also be interesting to pivot off St Brown ownership.

Optimizer

This is what came out of the optimal lineup. Kinda interesting lineup really when only targetting projections. A New England double stack naturally with a runback.. I will play this one time just because I want to see how it does.

Ownership / Chalkiest Build

Edit: Jacobs is out, so Wilson is now my favorite RB if I'm eating chalk. At 5300, and knowing my RB target is to average 5800, that really makes them names quite possible to reach.

This is the highest owned lineup I could produce today, maximizing ownership under 50k salary. I think this is also an interesting build, yet the reason I post this is not to play it; it is to identify where the good vs bad chalk may sit. With Williams being half the ownership of St Brown he is likely the one I would take of the two lineups. I am also leaning Chase as the most viable RB of the two, and Mcbride/Browns are also interesting enough to keep. I'm not so sold on 22% Michael Wilson though, even though the double stack is highly owned.

Top Ownership

St Brown is currently the highest owned while being in a smash spot. My concern with him is that this is a game prior to thanksgiving where they might need him on Thursday morning/rest him a lil bit. So what do we do if ASB doesnt live up to the hype? Pivots to ASB 1. Jameson Williams is half his ownership and projecting well too. Therefore if this remains the ownership going into the slate, my favorite pivot today will end up being just that. 2. Wandale Robinson - may go 5% owned as the opposing team's WR1 and gunslinger Winston out there. That could turn the points up quickly 3. Gibbs / Montgomery - as the Giants are the worst ranked team in dvoa, there is a high chance them RBs eat today instead of the passing game.

and 4. Giants Defense. Not something a lotta folks will do, but because i see it as a place where the Giants can get to Goff, it is viable for a pick 6 at least while no one plays it.

Underowned games

Indy vs KC seems to have the highest expected points total but not getting a ton of ownership. I feel like that is something to investigate. The game is in KC so just maybe we see some variance today where them passes finally land. One note though is that Indy plays a little bit more man coverage than the league average, and yet KC has struggled against man coverage, so unless you are playing Worthy or someone who can get separation, stacking there is going to be tough.

Pitt vs Chi is also lower owned and it has some potential for some points. Rome and Swift were call outs but DK Metcalf is likely going overlooked due to Rodgers being out. But really - how much has Rodgers really done this year? Prolly not too much downgrade to Rudolf.

Low owned QBs + Low owned WR1

Something I was curious about from ownership projections; which QBs are under 5% proj owned and which WR1s are less than 5% too. That led me to these 3 pairings as viable stacks if you are looking for pivot potential in large field tournaments with some form of upside possible.

--------------------------------------------------------------end of main--------------------------------------------- Showdown Opportunity by Salary (last 5 weeks)

This is a look at expected points based on workload and opportunity over the past 5 weeks. Nico has had almost as much opportunity as Josh Allen at almost half the ownership. The reason for the drop in ownership? Davis Mills is his QB tonight. The equalizer might be that the Houston Defense has been one of (if not the) best overall this season in DVOA, which could limit Josh Allen from having a ceiling game. He did just put up 44 dkp last week and therefore this does feel like letdown territory to me for him. As we move down the cheaper end, I see names like Gabe Davis popping out of nowhere, Stover as the cheapest dart with upside and Xavier Hutchinson as another cheap viable WR for Houston. The key to picking a quality captain is to find someone around the top of the chart with upside who has that chance of scoring the most points with little ownership. Marks? Schultz? Or Collins/Allen? Let the leverage speak to us there.

Vegas Expectations

I'm a bit more trusting of the Vegas side (left) than my own when key injuries are involved. However it is worth noting that Houston would be projected to win outright tonight if they were at full strength vs the vegas line showing a 5.5 underdog. That is quite the difference in lines - and its all because of the QB. Buffalo is on the road and last time they went to Miami they looked horrible so just maybe something that can flip the script (4 stacks in Houston).

Defense vs Recievers

Word on the street is that Coleman might get benched, which would open up a space for another player to get bumped up here for Buffalo. Neither team looks to give up recieving to running backs but WR2 looks like the idea passing path for scoring.

Redzone Report

The names on this list are most likely to score touchdowns in the redzone. The tight ends (Dalton/Dawson) are looking like the most likely to score of this list just based on how they score out in my system.

Buffalo Bills Leverage Spots

Updated: Allen is starting to show leverage now at capt for the top play on the board. Could go Cook as well as Shakir if we think the funnel goes to them as they both have captain leverage but not in the flex as much so its either Shakir capt + Allen flex or simply Allen capt or Cook capt imo. Prater, bills DST both have the top flex leverage. Palmer could e interesting for flex too.

The way it lays out rn, Allen is priced up, Gabe Davis is back and Coleman is out for now. That means lots of opportunity opening for either J Palmer or Gabe Davis as WR2 if you can figure out which one plays that role today. Davis got some redzone usage last game which makes him interesting if he gets his snap count up. Otherwise Cook is showing as the top buffalo captain leverage play with Josh Allen also being interesting. Prater and Bills DST both show as leverage options tonight since no one trusts the defense as of these projections. Ty Johnson also showing leverage. If I'm only building 1 lineup, I'm more likely to lean into a 4-2 Houston stack tonight.

Houston Leverage spots

Updated: Nico is similar to Allen as a captain option, but a 1/3rd of the ownership. Too many players on this side have flex leverage so I'm sorta leaning into potentially a 2-4 stack today with Allen + Kicker and then 4 texans. Fairbarn looks like top flex option followed by Higgins here.

The reason for the lean is because the Bills defense isnt that good to me and because there are 8 players with 'points left on the table'. Most ownership is trusting that Davis Mills sucks and forgets that Houston defense is actually good. So in a perfect storm, a lineup with Either Mills Nico, Woody or Schultz at captain will win, with Fiarbarn and Higgins showing flex leverage. They let Mills throw the ball 40+ times the last 2 weeks and as home underdogs, most of these guys will go underowned. Higgins looks like a solid flex play with the ability to even get to Texans if doing a double DST lineup tonight

The Optimal

This is actually interesting too from a lineup construction perspective. I will enter it in 1 double up contest just to see how it does, but I would recommend at least 2.5 swaps from it to make it viable.

Updated:

I get negative ROI on it. Thinking Allen captain for my single entry today and will see how the rest falls.

Sims leverage callouts

4 of the names that came up are from the Houston side. Nick Chubb being there is interesting since Woody is so popular today. As the most popular play on the slate, Josh Allen still came in underowned with Mills as well.

Sim Insights

Palmer, Marks and Allen got call outs for basically being high success rate when simulating 20,000 lineups. James Cook, Matt Prater look like potential busts to me that I may fade.

Allen is chalk but also listed as a core play, which makes fading Cook interesting as well, unless playing Cook at captain. I could see a lineup like that without Allen if somehow he got all the Buffalo touchdowns.

Also noting the boom vs bust plays. I'm likely to get to Higgins, Allen, maybe Bills defense, Palmer and maybe one other play from that list. Usually 3 of those plays end up doing well.

More on the way as ownership updates!