NFL Week 11 - Showdown, Main Slate and MNF Master thread for Leverage Points 2025

This will be a growning post so check back here / and X as the week builds out. Since I'm short on time this is just a quick hitter of usual helpful charts that I believe will help shape the core leverage build for you.

For Dallas Cowboys vs Vegas Raiders, use the X thread! https://x.com/dfsedric/status/1990566879161921892

Main slate - just dropping charts today since I am short of time!

Ceiling Finder

Chase and Brissett flying with the most expected fp on the slate. One is likely to be a core play.

Projecting the games

Cinncinatti is back so that is almost a 'play the steelers' call out unless they are too pricey.

Summary of Situations

Identify which running games will be ideal first, and then see what is remaining for passing games. Maybe Jacobs, Warren or Bijan/Arizona RBs make sense today.

Key WRs

Use to pair back to the QB.

Top Projections

Not trusting Cleveland as the top DST entirely vs Baltimore. I think Baltimore made adjustments that have helped protect them. Jags, Bears, Texans and Bills are the other top options.

Defense vs Recievers

Oline vs Dline Matchups

Sim Targets

Rodgers looks like the best bet of course, but 3 others in the range too

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NYJ/NE Ceiling Finder

Not all players have the ability to reach the ceiling of others. Maye has by far the highest ceiling and highest price and ownership. Good reason though based on how he has been playing. The others above that trend line have done well over the past 3 weeks, ahead of their salary so those are going to be value. The cheapest end shows an Isiah Williams as the cheapest value if jamming in some randos.

Vegas Expectations

The vegas total is really low with a huge spread for New England, which will lead many to a 5-1 build. However I see these as 2 closely located division rivals, and New England Defense isnt all that elite, which gives us the ability to bet towards the Jets covering as well as the game going over its total if they succeed, against the grain. That would mean we should look for 3 opportunities for the Jets to score, and maybe 4-5 for the Patriots. Infact, I see some potential advantages to the Jets in the run blocking space. The only reason we think they wont run the ball is because of the game getting out of hand and being forced to passing. If the Jets score first, maybe they can keep it close enough to get Breece or Fields a rushing touchdown?

Redzone Report

This is the list of folks most likely to score touchdowns from a passing perspective. Extra weight to the Tight End position. The WRs look a bit tough to pick from based on their scores alone, but Lazard might be more of a dart flex play since hes been 3rd in redzone looks over the past 3 games.

Defense vs Recievers

It seems like both defenses are weak against WRs but one standout is that the Jets are weaker at covering TE than the Patriots are. Hooper is out so Henry should be safe for some points.

New England Leverage

Drake Maye is going to be the top owned with Henderson likely a close 2nd when it comes to captain picks. They have shown to have the highest ceilings on the slate so at least one of the two will make sense, if not both. As far as captain picks are concerned, Henderson is projecting more leverage, in line with his odds, although I do project Maye to score more points than him and the industry projects. As we think about who our core plays are, it could actually be Henderson captain + Maye Flex. Henry looks like flex leverage. It is a bit weird between Hollins and Diggs showing captain leverage, with WR1 being in a good spot. Diggs stinks every time I play him but he's viable at captain unless Hollins gets the lion share for some reason for even deeper leverage (captain only).

Kicker / Patriots Defense are also viable plays today, as I do see under 20% Pats defense showing in the flex.

New York Jets Leverage

The Jets dont have a ton of leverage at captain at this time, but it would seem that Fields is viable. under 10% owned makes that intruiging and its because of the narrative that their tails are getting whipped by their angry Patriot parents. Totally possible that happens, but what if it doesnt? Its likely because Fields does something, likely through rushing. Taylor, Folk and Isisah Davis are viable flex plays, if going 4-2 Jets stack like that. Cant even forget that double defense has been showing up in the winner lately so that would be wild yet possible.

Sim Perspective

Drake Maye and Breece Hall are what show as the most viable captain plays. Fields showing he could go even lesser owned than both, but not showing up in as many top lineups.

Taylor showing as the top Flex play with Henry/Hollins as next best options. Infact Mason Taylor is showing as the strongest play for leverage so hes going into my lineup as a core play in the flex.

Maye Henderson and Breece should not all be in the same lineup per the sims either.

The potential pivot if Diggs at captain doesnt work is Diggs to Fields, so that is something to watch for.

My Optimal Lineup

So this is the wildest optimal I've seen to date from my projections. So wild that I am going to play it as is in a cheap GPP. 3-3 build that has actual captain leverage expected. It also faded Diggs. May do some cheap variations of it just because I do think the more Jets you play the more leverage you will find.

More coming later this week!