NFL Week 16 Main slate and more! Analysis for Draftkings Tournaments Dec 2025

This has been a crazy week with not one but two of my data sources crashing out on me. Nonetheless gonna make it work regardless. Lets get right in it.

Indy vs SF Expectations vs Salary (last 5 games per player)

This chart is becoming more and more handy each week as it pertains to showdown. Now that I pull the last 5 games per player, you will see some names show more or less workload, depending on the games they were on the field. Christian McCaffrey is the clear top usage on the page. However hes not the clear top owned with Jonathon Taylor on the other side at same ownership and similar price (but cheaper). That is keeping his ownership on par, where I believe one of the two will fail today. Purdy and Kittle are also up above the trend line. I cirlce the names that show as low owned because I believe you need at least 2 names under the 20% mark in showdown lineups. Not sure if Tonges will get that work over Kittle. Michael Pittman is otherwise interesting at low ownership and Philip Rivers throwing it.

Vegas Lines vs Mines

Normally I'd suggest that the Colts could cover this spread, but it doesnt take into account that Rivers is only on his 2nd week as starting QB, and that hes likely covered in icy hot from soreness. I am going to trust the Vegas side more, which gives about 20 points to the Colts. I have the game going under its expectations either way. Perhaps more field goals than touchdowns scored?

Redzone / Receivers Scoring System

The redzone usage chart is showing the colts WRs are all low owned. Pittman, Juaun Taylor, Warren and Kittle all score well for play potential.

WR vs Defense

I'm surprised that the Colts are set up for better passing situations in general. WR2 and WR3 is ideal for Rivers. Kittle is in a good spot as well as WR2 for SF. CMC is typically unstoppable.

Top Leverage

Kittle looks to be my favorite on this list. Not sure what to think about Ameer up there but worth a mention.

Points left on the table

10 names of players who have under performed to their potential points and 7 of them are colts. That does scream to play the colts 4-2 stack at least once in case they actually connect for their touchdowns and exceed their team totals.

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Expectations vs Salaries

Right back to the starting point that I use weekly; only this time I added a yellow line in the area in which I want to focus on for potential value plays. Maybe Dawson Knox/Dalton Schultz/Tre Tucker/C Dike or even Sa space, where players might be at the cheap end but getting enough workload to reach value. I am starting here because in previous weeks I havent done a good job of calling out value in my charts, and yet your lineup is only as good as your cheapest plays. the 10 pt mark showed promise in my lineup reviews 2 weeks ago and so that is where we might find low owned plays with upside (if their situation aligns).

One position I do not see down there is the RB position so perhaps we know to pay up for at least one if not both of them.

Top usage continues to be Brisset for cheap, Wilson/Dak and ASB. Then I see Gibbs Chalk below that at 47% expected ownership, Bijan, and then 3 relatively cheap QBs for their expectations. The top zone is likely to get 2 plays out of me, with possibly one of them 2 chalk RBs.

Vegas Expectations

Detroit vs Pitt appears to have the highest Vegas total and my projections align with that. My numbers dont account for weather or injury. Some other notable totals; I have Jacksonville beating Denver outright as my 2nd highest game total, and a shady Miami win over Cinci, without Tua as the 3rd highest.

Top Projections by Position

Perhaps theres a path to playing both Gibbs and Robinson together at high ownership? Not sure I would do that but its worth noting the usage and the projections are lining upwell. Michael Wilson normally blows up when MHJ is out, but hes seemingly back this week, which means that top WR might be questionable. He has had 66 targets over his past 5 games which is wild, so I left him in that WR1 spot. Bills defense in the top spot doesnt feel too good either as I simply dont think they are that good personally. I see they have advantages in run and pass blocking vs Cleveland o/d lines, but as usual I will play only from my own top 5 list.

Summary of Situations

Minnesota shows up as facing the worst run defense on the board but also doesn't project to put up a ton of points. Miami is interesting there with Achane so maybe worth a flier, although his price is tough. I left in some guys like Mahomes for now to reflect the passing situation for KC better, since Minshew hasnt played much in the stats. Despite Rice being out, he may have a positive situation for passing.

QBs

I dont know why Brissett remains as cheap as he has but he is falling right in the zone of QB targets this week while being the top of the expectation chart. Goal is 28 points at the position so it could be a week where the chalk actually wins. If not going Brissett, maybe a flier on Aaron Rodgers could pan out in the top scoring game? Or Tyler Shough? It'll be much easier to determine once we show the WR options.

RBs

RB is interesting this week because the two top projected are going to be two of the top owned. The sim showed that paying up for RB might be the thing this week. However it also recommended around 5600 spent on the position. Achane simmed out the best but that doesnt include the fact that he has a new QB. On the cheap side, Aaron Jones actually could return value at that price. Not sure on Singletary but hes the cheapest above that value line.

WRs and TEs

There is an interesting thing happening here where Brissett comes in as the top owned QB while his top 2 WRs are coming in around 5% or less. One of which has had more opportinity than anyone else on the slate in the past 5 weeks (Wilson). Both Wilson and MHJr have good matchups, which makes me want to double stack them to some extent. However I typically fade the top owned QB in favor of a lower owned stack. The middle range is all low owned and then i circled the value range as I think one of those in the yellow could end up being a good value play.

These are the best looking positions and looking at Metcalf up there in a good spot definitely opens up the Rodgers play. He is coming in highly owned (4th highest) so not quite the sneaky thing to do.

These WRs all score well in my system. Dallas, Detroit both have 2 each. Tre Tucker is interesting to be on this list, while being on the value chart

TEs

Theo Johnson is right in that value range for TE if not paying up for any of the top tier. I can see a Wandale Robinson stack with Theo even if that NYG game happens to get active.

Optimal

How the points landed. 4 WRs, paid down on RBs and up on WRs. Could be an interesting way to go but it definitely needs more correlation to win.

Top Ownership and Pivots

Gibbs is the decision point of the slate when half the lineups expect to roster him in the highest scoring game on the slate. The question I have to ask is, what if he fails? The interesting piece here is that WR1 is the 3rd highest owned on the slate in projections, meaning many lineups will take gibbs + asb today even. So lets see who might be a pivot

1. Goff is sub 10% owned - if they pass for touchdowns, ideally they dont go to another chalk play. Maybe they would go to Jameson Williams for 1/3 of the ownership? DVOA favors WR3 or TE but neither feel great for upside like Williams who has a below average coverage in Joey Porter.

2. Backup RB? David Montgomery is showing 2% owned and quite cheap in comparison. Per sims if getting to an average cost of 5600, Montgomery + Rico Dowdle seems to fit.

3. Opposing RB: Gainwell is 10% owned and I do show a slight advantage to the run blocking of Pittsburg over Detroit today. Gonna run at least 1 Gainwell.

Good luck!