NFL Week 18 Saturday Slate - Odds and Leverage Strategy for DFS

We have reached the final weekend of the regular season. I haven't done a good job of promoting my page outside of twitter and some occasional reddit posts on DFSports, but that will change next season. We had some wins, losses and some in between weeks, but one thing for sure is that the process I post weekly does work, and is documented weekly in this blog. The highlight for me was watching Brady kill it in the final hour, against the grain - and full disclosure I am not even a fan (Chiefs fan here). If the process failed all season and you went all in the entire year on the Brady + Detroit RB train last week, you had a great chance to Hope you have enjoyed the journey!

Last Updated: 3:20pm CST

Ceiling Finder

In this section, I try and highlight the guys who have potential to break the slate. The higher up the chart, the more ceiling that player has. Ideally someone above the diag line is more of a value for their ceiling. Mahommes looks like the clear top ceiling on the slate. Josh Jacobs has a high ceiling but only 12% of the field expected to play him in the more recent update, and that seems strange, as I believe he has higher odds of playing well than that. Single digit ownership on a 4 game slate is nothing to take lightly, and Dobbs is showing that as well for a potential value QB build. Onto the positional breakdown!

QB

In this section, I filtered to look only at the QB position. With only 4 to choose from, the path is quite skewed, as Stidham just made his first start and we got what he gave us against the 49ers. One thing I see here is that Lawrence is pulling in half the ownership of Mahommes and Mahommes is pulling in half of the field. Everyone else has a 6 week lookback period for their stats aside from Stidham the unknown variable. Therefore his true value cant quite be determined. However we can peek ahead at QB situations from my summary page:

What I'm seeing here is that none of the QB situations are ideal for a ceiling type performance. The Chiefs do have an implied total that I'd like to target. Mahommes and Lawrence have high usage so they are likely going to have the highest floors and highest ownership. You have to ask yourself whether or not theres a 50% chance of him being in "must play" terriritory on this slate or not? (50% is how much he is being owned). If not, then we should consider whether or not paying up for Mahommes is truly worth it, even if he puts up the top score at the position. My lean at this position will be with Lawrence and dart Dobbs for now, because of my GPP nature. I will be playing Mahommes too because of the rushing potential mixed with the passing potential to RBs in this offense.

RB

This chart filters down to just the running backs, including the same value trend line. The highest expectations over the last 6 weeks is Jacobs and yet he is going under owned. Pacheco ownership has gone way up for some reason, which may explain why Jacobs is being left out. Therefore I am going over the field on Jacobs unless we find that he is limited. If the KC RBs do have success as we expect, either McKinnon Or Pacheco or both could be value pieces that make sense this week. Interestingly enough, Pacheco is coming in higher owned than Mckinnon which makes me lean Mckinnon today. Henry is my next favorite target outside of a Chiefs RB and Jacobs.

Note: this section highlights which teams have potential to run the ball through their running backs more often due to game script. Essentially this means two things:

1. KC is facing a team with a bad run defense

2. The game script may lead to more running back usage than usual. The QB can also run in touchdowns too in this situation so, again - Mahommes is a bit tricky and tough to fade unless you want to make your lineup construction more contrarian than 50% of the field.

WR

So far, the trends above are pointing towards playing the Jacksonville passing game and the Chiefs run game. As we filter to the wide receivers only, Jacksonville receivers seemingly highest value as well. Zay Jones is just competely mispriced per his upside, and I say that based on how far above the value line his name is showing. This appears to be due to his 3 big games over the last 6 weeks and some of that usage has been converted to points already. For someone with the ability to get close to the workload as Davonte Adams (based on his height in the chart), it would seem that he would be more expensive. If you would like a lower owned play, consider Robert Woods as a value play with low ownership.

TE

Moving to the TE position, Kelce, Engram and Waller make the most sense, with Waller bringing the least ownership. Anything else is sorta a dart play in a dart position. Peeking ahead, I noticed that Tennessee does have some advantages against the Jags in the defense vs Receivers section. If you want to leverage here, it will either be Chig or Hooper, where Chig has had the most targets over the last few weeks. Chig is single digit owned so I am going heavier there.

Vegas vs My Totals

In this section, I am bringing the vegas expectations (spread/total/team points) and then comparing it to what I calculate it should be (team score, opponent score, game total). I see the Chiefs game potentially going under its implied total as well as the Jacksonville game doing the same. The spread on the Jacksonville game is interesting, as Jacksonville could potentially dominate the game. Tennessee has always avoided pass pressure and made it difficult when going against the spread though, in large part due to running the ball successfully and avoiding pass plays quite often.

The more players you get from the Jags game, the more contrarian your lineup will be by design. The odds (blue bar) are higher in the KC game to score more fantasy points, but the ownership (orange is even higher). The Tenn/Jax game is slightly expecting less ownership than the overall odds show, meaning there is leverage built in there somewhere.

Defense vs Receivers

One of the best places to see how a team might attack their opponent in the passing game is here. We see Vegas does get KC who ranks 31st against WR1s. That means Davante likely eats his lunch with ease. Jacksonville seems to have a bit wider spread, but WR3 is the easiest path to points against Tennesee. Kansas City is showing WR3 potential and sadly that position could be 3 or 4 different WRs. Mecole Hardman may be back and Id lean him over Skyy personally, due to fumble issues. The RB position (aka Mckinnon...) also has potential to catch passes tomorrow.

Summary

This view summarizes all of the mentioned situations so far. The KC team total has the most upside but how the Chiefs get there is going to be interesting. Adams looks like a great runback for any stacks you consider building. When looking for value, Zay, Kirk and Engram area all showing potential.

Projections

Finally here are my projections. Fanduel numbers on the left, Draftkings on the right. Funny enough, the Raiders project super well vs the Chiefs so I think its wise to take a chance. They have always treated the Chiefs game as if its their superbowl so I dont expect them to roll over this game.

Hopefully this helps someone win this week! This concludes today's slate. I will add showdown information later to this page.

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Showdown Odds vs Salary

Watson comes into the mix for potential darts. The Raiders rank 32nd against the WR3 spot which is unknown for the chiefs. Hardman, MVS and Watson can all be that guy who gets open.

When stacking KC

Mahommes makes the most sense to me in the flex when playing him while Kelce, Juju, and MVS maybe are good dart captain options.

When stacking LV

I think the Raiders make sense in the flex for the most part today, but a Stidham captain with Hollins and Adams also makes sense.