NFL Week 3 Odds and Leverage for Draftkings - Sept 2023

This has been one of the toughest off seasons to date for me to prepare data for NFL. Data sources have changed and gone away and changed pricing models. However, I have finally arrived! Just in time for week 3, as this week and next week are 2 of my favorites of the year. It is when data points start making enough sense to use but right before the field is totally in line with what is happening. This is our time!

I build this post live with you as I walk through my data insights that have proven to deliver GPP winning results over the years. Your task is to see which ones make sense to your lineup construction and win. My views on the slate are nothing you will see on any other site, especially for free, so please help support this site through likes and comments for promotion.

Updated! 10:45 pm CST

Ceiling Finder

Updated note: There are weather considerations this week, with wind and rain. East coast games have a bit so I am less on Mac and more on the other low owned top options. He would otherwise be a great play until he hits at his price and ownership, as the place on this chart is the highest expectations when these plays start to land.

This is where I begin -by figuring out first and foremost, where is the upside on the slate? Using the expected points calculation, we chart it out and find Tyreek, Tua and Mac Jones (??) have high upside on the slate. Mac Jones is the clear oddball, but as I look at his opportunity for points vs actual points scored, I can see that he is in line to exceed value sooner than later. The matchup will matter. Kirk, Watson, Mahomes, Jefferson, and Lawrence are pretty much the next tier down in upside. Minnesota as a team looks pretty strong on the slate in their matchup, and I'm pretty sure ownership will follow them.

Vegas Expectations vs My Expectations

When reviewing the upside of a player, it is important to see what the expectation of the game holds. Minnesota vs Chargers appears to have the most points projected on the slate, followed by Miami. I have both of these games projecting over the vegas totals and so I will take them seriously. Where is the field going?

Right now, Chicago vs KC is a bit underowned which I find interesting. Ownership updates over the weekend but I don't see that one changing entirely due to blowout risks.

QB

Updated: Josh Allen has 3% ownership expected on the upper end of salaries. Mac Jones has 1.2% ownership but having to deal with weather and a tough defense, it is less optimal, but expected to blow up soon for a big game. In the middle, there are lots of plays with low ownership. Nothing here sticks out as crazy high ownership and so there are no leans here.

Its quite funny seeing Fields with sub 1% ownership expectations vs the Chiefs in the late slate. That is interesting to me despite him throwing his coaches under the bus. However Mac Jones is going to be in the first lineup I build this week because of price and expectations. I am needing to see which WRs I like in order to say anyone else at this point, but lets look a bit deeper into the QB situations:

Ideally the QB will be involved in a game where they are expected to score over 26 points, facing a bad pass defense and the QB has high usage. Kirk is the only name I see checking all 3 of those boxes. Trevor Lawrence is also interesting too, as I see there is a slight boost to rushing from the Jax side and if he scrambles he may pick up bonus points.

RB

Update: got rid of Deon since hes gone. Pollard is the top guy in terms of workload, but Henry has intruige to me. His price is high like Jefferson who is highly owned, making it difficult to get to Henry in most lineups. His value is a bit low per the trend line so definitely a risk involved if he busts. Gonna look at my RB metrics here:

Chicago can either have Herbert or Fields rush one or 2 in vs the Chiefs if they dont implode. A safer New Orleans and Tennessee are next up, and that makes Henry more intruiging. I believe the rams got to Kyren Williams enough to warrent going back there. I see Minnesota on the list, which means that there may be pivot opportunity off of the popular Cousins -Jefferson stack.

WR

With regards to WR workloads, Hill is the clear top WR this year, while Nico, Bourne and Olave are all intruiging names from their workloads so far. Mack Hollins and Elijah Moore also have seen more targets on their team in 2 games, and are cheap and underowned.

Defense vs Recievers

As we look at the breakdown of defenses vs these guys, Nico is intruiging. I have him as WR1, but yet it is difficult to truly define that after 2 weeks with other guys there. Infact I dont hate any of the mentioned WR matchups above, so I potentially rely on projections from there as we also consider TEs. Just check the weather before playing them.

TE

This position is never fun. However Zach ertz has been getting a decent workload for weeks and therefore becomes my favorite of the TEs this week. Workload and DVP is all that matters to me in this position. Arizona has a tough matchup and yet TE is the weakest part of the Dallas defense so just maybe that works out for him to find the endzone. If not, hoping for PPR points anyways. Oline/DLine - for Defense

Sometimes we can estimate who is going to have the best time running the ball as well as rushing the passer for turnovers and defensive scoring. KC and CAR seem to lead the way in advantages this week. However both QBs are mobile which then makes Cleveland and New England defense more viable. I will rely on projections for that position.

Projections

Updated!

On the left side, is the fanduel side of things while the right side is the draftkings side. I try to highlight the top 5 projected plays of each position. This helps me with getting to stacks, especialy when looking at the WRs who have potential to bring a QB to the winning lineup. Which WR do you think will help carry the QB to the winning milli maker lineup? Good luck!