PGA Analysis for Draftkings Tournament Players - The American Express 2026

Its been a while since we looked into some PGA strategy for these tournaments so I figure I'd post up to show what things look like from my end, as I continue to build out my tools for the season. Use what you like and ignore what you dont. Either way PGA is fun and I suspect that we will get some good results this year.

Odds vs Situations

One thing about Scottie Scheffler being on the slate is that his price and odds of success put him so far out in a league of his own, that it skews the chart significantly. However if playing him, its still important to understand how you find value plays based on his placement. Above the trend line plays are considered value for the odds. I tend to go for about 4 plays above the line in any lineup I build personally. The cheapest side has Messner/Brenner/McCarthy. Maybe one of them finds a way to do well in pairings with Scheffler?

The leverage table shows Kitiyama, Scott, and Huey as potential leverage in tournaments so ideally at least one does well enough to move your lineup upward.

Course Fits (datagolf)

Based on past results here, this course is ideal for those with solid driving distance in their bag, more than any other key area so I will consider bombers the most.

Targets

I circld the top 5 plays that seem to be going underowned the most, for their odds and ceilings. Many of which in the 8k and 9k range which makes it difficult to play them with Scottie at 13K, without dumpster diving too deep. If breaking these down to those who have the ability to reach my target score, i get this shorter list, where value plays become a lil bit more defined:

The cheaper plays at the bottom have the upside if they are on. Daniel Berger doesnt have a very good target percentage so I will likely fade him out of the bottom 4. Noren, Si Woo, and Sepp also look fade worthy on that note if playing the odds vs their ownership.

Sim Lineup Insight

Without fantasycruncher (bastards banned me with no reason provided after years of being a customer..), I am going to use this as a baseline for what might be a winning entry. It is salary efficient and ideally will highlight something in the construction worthwhile, such as the potential of a fade to Scheffler panning out for the big winner. As you know, Im not in the business of handing out lineups so I dont recommend playing it and expecting to win. I will enter it for a buck just to watch the result of it, but more importantly I am curious to see if we get a case where Scheffler is simply too high priced to truly work out. If so just maybe the balanced build is the way to go.

Final Sim Insight for now

The sim run I performed calls these 5 players the top leverge plays on the board, including Scottie at 43% owned. Check out the skillsets of each play before you lock one in, as sometimes they are low owned for good reason. More insights will be provided in the upcoming weeks. Good luck!