PGA Odds and Analysis for Draftkings Tournaments - Farmers Insurance Open 2026

This is very last minute and its because I have been working on improving my sims all week and through the night. Some items have changed for the better and some things still require tweaking but this post is mostly for myself as I work out the details of things. I will start by showing the changes based on last week's dashboard / sim insights and how I used them. The same charts will be used in this week's tournament, although the logic may have changed behind the calculations.

Split Scatterplot between high end/elite vs Value plays

Something you will see this week being added is the split chart where I separate the highest owned plays from the rest of the field (elite vs value), in hopes of controlling the skewed view, while also treating the value plays differently from the higher end plays as is. This is because Scottie will skew things every week, whether he was a good play or not. Some names such as Russell Henley actually did well but was the lowest owned in the upper region of plays. Now he stands out better when this happens. Whaley busted on the cheap end but did come out strong for the first day or 2 before his collapse. Scott and English both did well as the next 2 above the line (and so did Stevens below the line).

Boom Bust Tool

One of the things that is positive - is having additional information potentially pulled in. I created some course history / recent form scores, which basically weigh those factors of their finishes and sorts. Jason Day stands out the most here to me, since he did well. Course history was less important this specific week so that is something to try and gauge on a week to week basis as to its importance.

I baked those into my projections as well and unfortunately the piece that suffered the most is the boom bust 'players that succeed together' visual. I had some good looking data prior to these changes but now it is seemingly broken, thus the delay in posting. Gonna keep working to bring that back up to par.

Post Simulation Report

This is a work in progress but essentially putting together a report to check out the data posted in how it did against a real contest. The amount of work going into these tools is quite massive so hopefully you will see the value in the long run.

Odds vs Situations

Back to the chart of old to begin this week, and I get the overview of what we have in the field from an odds, salary, and situation standpoint. Xander is the top golfer in the field and not expecting crazy ownership at 21% projected. One thing we learned from last week and many weeks is that you should identify the play at the top of the chart who is lowest owned with the highest odds, and that would be Si Woo this week. He would be the contrarian play to the highest owned, which appears to be Cam Young.

The cheaper end sinks into the 6k range with Brenan and Meissner who both made cut last week. This course is a bit tougher from the looks of things so some cheap guys may do much worse.

Course Fits (datagolf)

This is another split course but at least on the south course we know that bombers matter here (again). I'll likely lean more into recent form this week than course history as a result of the split.

High and Low

Aberg is interesting on the low end of this chart. This is odds over ownership so technically the upper left is ideal. I'm also looking at Hojgaard too on the elite plays list. The value chart makes Noren a bit interesting above the line.

Primary Player Pool

This is the list of the pool in which the upside stands out the most. I suspect the winning lineup will score around or below 600 points this week so 96 per play on average is the goal. Hojgaard and Rodgers both stand out as the potential top value in that space. Keegan Bradley, Noren, and McCarty are the lowest owned of the highest ceilings.

Value plays

These names have the most value potential of the top list.

Boom Bust (experimental)

I am going to start by pulling up Si Woo's boom and bust plays, to see what that world looks like. Very gritty and names that I find untrustworthy, but maybe worth peeking at Penge, Noren and Gotterup a little bit when building for him. Gotterup is high on the recent form scoring list. Hojgaard is high in course history but that is due to his last 2nd place finish..

Also note

Xander Pairings

I like even less names associated with Xander, but some interest in Brennan for a 'make the cut' style value play at least.

Cam Young (chalk)

Since he is the chalkiest potentially, I am fading him but one thing to point out is that JJ Spaun and Brennan appear to be contrarian plays to him so I may continue to use them in my lineup pool if the ceiling is high enough. It is a low scoring event so ceiling may matter just a tad less but lets see!

For the extra risky - i am having my sims return the top lineups and these are it.

Good luck if playing or testing these charts out with me.