PGA Championship - Draftkings Golf Plays - May 20th 2022

Its time for the 2nd major, which means I have to get my article out early so that we have a fair shot at this course. The course appears to be unfriendly in contrary to last week so it will take extra effort by us all to make some noise.

Course notes:

Aside from the Senior PGA Championship last year, this course hasnt been played since 2009 on the PGA tour and so throw course history out the window this week. The weather will be windy, especially Friday afternoon. Driving far may help due to the length of this course, but it seems to get tougher the closer you get to the hole. I am debating between GIR, approach, scrambling and proximity to the hole type stats as of now. Bogey avoidance is highly important due to the risks of water everywhere (maybe like 15 holes with water). So game plan is to find who will make the least mistakes this week, as scores can be closer to par this week by Sunday.

Updated: May 18th 9:14pm CST

There is some reason to play Rahm, Rory and Morikawa, below the line. Schef too really, but I decided I will fade personally. That is because lower level, I see reason to play Munoz and Mito as well under 7k. In other words, this is oddly pulling me into a stars and scrubs type look.

Previous:

Using my custom success odds blend, we can find who is value amongst the field (above the line). We can also see who is leverage (green). Unfortunately everyone is on the value guys in Rory, Cantlay/Hideki/Fitzpatrick/Lowry. Not to say they wont be good .. what I will say is that you cant expect all of your players to have that high of ownership and win a gpp.

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As updates come in, things change. I circled the guys who stand out the most. Still some big decisions to make before morning.

Prev update:

In a closer look at the standout plays, I grouped each player into a price range and then circled the plays that stand out the most due to their placement and their potential leverage. Brooks at 3% owned is odd and risky. That is something I cant ignore even though theres not a ton of value on his odds.

If Rahm stays low, I'm in for a couple lineups. In reddit last week, I put out a bold call on Scheffler not winning anymore this year. He has won 4 times, but his strokes gained numbers just don't support him keeping up the wins like that (chart below, data from datagolf). I want to mention that majors may be entirely different as he has more SG in majors than anyone this season (since he did win the first one). However I will fade him entirely on non major events the rest of the year, as his price and ownership are less likely to come down.

When looking at it like this, we can see the opposite of Scheffler is Cam Young. He has 0 actual wins but has played well enough to win 0.96 golf tournaments this year. I may just play him blindly the rest of he year, as he is playing well enough to win a tournament at any moment now. Morikawa and Matt Jones are also high on the list to win soon. The only knock on him is that his approach numbers are not good and that may turn out poorly at this course.

Optimal Percentages:

I like to see who makes it in the optimizer and who doesnt. That is an indication of the price points required to build something with upside. Seeing Scheff so low makes me feel like a fade is in my near future...

This is it for the evening. Guys who can give you a different look and finish well without bringing the entire field with you.

Prev update:

Last week this chart had all but 4 golfers make the cut. Sadly I was heavy on one of the 4 golfers. This week, I intend to take a slightly different approach and play 4 golfers from this list and mix with some value blends and leverage, due to the extreme difficulty. We will see more clearly Wednesday night!

One final jewel for the week; who has been playing well? According to an article shared on twitter, it is said that the winner is likely to come from guys who did well the golfer's previous week to the PGA Championship (Top 30 I believe). I pulled the guys who have finished at least top 15 the last time they were out, which is a bit stricter - but also leads to some interesting names. Lahiri? Davis Riley? These guys will be like 1-2% owned but coming in hot for no ownership. Lets see what happens!

To note: the Top 10s is the number of top 10 finishes in PGA Championship over the last 10 years (moving course).

Good luck!