PGA Draftkings - Valero Texas Open - March 29th 2022

Lets get this party started! Last week's charts led to me cashing my GPP entries in both PGA events so its time to go for the hat trick. Also a shoutout to Tambos Tidbits for providing the best summary of PGA tips that I've come across.

The scatter plot below pins my calculated success odds vs the player salary to find value. The higher the player name, the higher the odds of success so above the trend line are value. The percentage listed is the expected ownership. The greener the dot, the more leverage you can get by playing the player.

Final update

With Ancer out, I did a final pass and circled the 4 main leverage spots in each price range. High ownership plays do not mean they are bad. However if you want to take a shot to climb the leaderboard, taking a shot somewhere is necessary. Hopefully this helps find one of them spots.

Updated Wednesday March 30th 2022 @ 2:00pm CST

Update!

I moved the bottom level up a notch to see a lil more variety in leverage spots to target.

Si Woo - probabably the play that stands out the most for leverage in this scatter plot. The greener the dot, the more leverage. I believe the normal sweet spot is 2 leverage plays in any GPP lineup if you want to have a shot at winning. Not to mention, we see he is half the ownership of Conners at the same price.

If you want to take a shot at Jason Day, it wouldn't be the craziest idea. A true YOLO because his last two outings are horribly finished, yet he posted a top 3 finish at the Farmers. This field isnt as strong and you get half the ownership of Finau (who I am actually playing this week).

As I zoom out one time, I see Charles Howell is hanging out here, with the most leverage of all plays at the top (thats his green dot). He is likely to sit in my main lineup if he remains sub 5% ownership. He fits the course well and has shown top 10 ability here. Priced good enough to reach value if he shows up. Now zooming into the lists:

In the upside column on the left, Rory has the highest odds, and yet he also has the highest ownership on the slate. It is debatable what you could/should do in this situation. I personally will not play him and hope he drops out for the Masters or something weird. Spieth on the other hand, may benefit from 4 rounds here. He has 3 top 10s here in the past and I hope he goes for a 4th at half the ownership of Rory.

Value wise I do see Sigg and Whaley up top of this list. Many cheap options are looking like they could go underowned. My favorite here may be (aside from Howell) Brandon Grace. History here has worked well and he doesnt need a lot for value at his price tag.

My favorite list is the leverage list. Why? Because only one of these guys will work out likely. But if you choose wisely, you will stand atop the leaderboard as the smartest guy/gal in the room. Ill be honest, Ive never heard of Kanaya, and therefore I may skip or a Kevin Tway or so. In a pool of lineups maybe will try 5-10% of each of these guys in hopes one lands. Keep in mind, the leverage list down below contains some plays with much lower odds of success than the green dots in the scatter plot.

Top 10s: This is clearly Charley Hoffman territory as he has more top 10s here than anyone. Laird shows up in this list and that guy scares me, after donating so much to his losing cause a few weeks ago.

Special mentions: We get Hideki Badnecki in the field so YOLO there. My hot take of the week? Peter Uihlein makes the cut and finishes in the top 30.

These two lists summarize the guys who check the most boxes for success. I will probably play 2 in any lineup i build.

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