PGA Odds and Leverage Strategies for Draftkings - Sony Open - 2023

Thanks for those who have followed along in 2022. I am going to walk you through a thought train that will help you find some GPP plays for this week as we take on our first real PGA tournament of the year. Are you new to draftkings? Sign up here for a free $20 ticket. Lets dive in.

Updated: 836 pm CST

Skill Sets for Sony Open

I took a look at some industry wide news from Steve Bamford Golf to datagolf, and have come to the conclusions below:

1. We need strong putters

2. Strong approach play will help

3. Recent Form will also be important

4. This week may be high scoring week again

I keep those thoughts in mind as I work through the views below.

Odds vs Salary

I am going back to the scatterplot here to see where we can find value this week. It looks like several darts will come from the 7k range. It is early in the year and therefore the odds may not quite represent the reality of these players in 2023 yet. However they are a good starting point. I am using a combination of odds that range from win chances to making the cut chances to produce my custom odds number. Sungjae appears to have the best odds of success this week. Russell Henley appears to be the top man left out (next to Hideki). I circled everyone that seems to be coming in low owned, so maybe the build is to get to 1 or 2 here.

On the cheap side Brendon Todd stands out a bit to me, with Jaeger and Lipsky floating down there for cheap. The health of these players are unknown so you may want to consider that too.

These four tables all highlight specific keys. 1st table is who has the most upside here and that would be Spieth. My 2nd table here checks for potential value plays who are expected to make the cut, and Palmer tops this list. 3rd table identifies leverage plays who are expected to make the cut and Piercy tops this list. Finally We look at players who have had top 10 finishes at this course and Kuchar tops this list.

Strokes Gained 2023

This data gets stronger as the year goes, but I can see that Hoge has been gaining both Approach and Putting wise. Some other key players in this space below him that may make for good lineup pieces.

Recent form

Here I try to get an idea of who has played well recently. Hoge happens to be top of the list again, with an average finishing place of 8th in his last 5 tournaments. David Lingmerth is also up there but way cheaper. Granted I do not know the strength of these turnaments so keep that in mind.

Leverage

On the left side, here I'll be looking for guys who have high odds of success but less ownership than the odds. Names like Conners, Hidecki and Bradley are interesting to me this week because of that.

On the right side, I filter down to those who have made at least 3 cuts in their last 5 tournaments, and also look at guys who have an average finish at least 30th or better. Depending on how much leverage you are looking for, you can likely pick a couple guys here and make a case for them in your lineups. Sam Ryder is someone I may take a flier on if his skills match up on other charts, if I need to get more leverage than Taylor Montgomery. Apparently this guy is a super putter so maybe worth a play here and there.

Hope this helps!