PGA Playoffs - Odds, Leverage and Analysis to help you win a Draftkings tournament - St Judes 2025

First Look

On first look, understanding this is a no cut event and that there are playoff implications for some but not all, I'll start by saying that narratives are not something I intend to chase this week. Moreso thinking about who has the most upside for their price. I don't believe this to be a birdie fest but we will see how it played out last year later in this writeup. For now, I start here because I like to see where names fall on the scatter plot, while determining who is in the field and which names appear on the respective table below (upside, value, leverage history). We can clearly see when Scheffler is in the field. Top price, top owned and may still be potentially top leverage. Thing is, at his ownership there's only two choices here. Either go all in on that play or simply don't play him. Single entry and cash games are different, but from a GPP perspective, if you build 3 lineups and 1 has Scheffler in it, you will be underweight and that one lineup likely has no shot in a 3 entry max or greater. Just calling that out now. Some other names we see bubbling up, but wont have the luxury of using the cut chart this week. We have other tools though.

Course Fits (datagolf)

This looks like another week where course fits will be solid driving accuracy mixed with good approach play, and less emphasis on bombers. One thing to note about that is that either good scrambling or good putting can still make up for those who miss. Cam Young is quite frankly not a course fit here or at last week's course, but he won it by putting at a high level. With it being one of the least predictive stats usually I will still pull the top list just in case it matters by tomorrow night.

Update:

Course notes: The fairway width is a bit more narrow than other courses. Players missing the narrow fairways tend to be penalized by half a stroke more than players who do not.

Also noting that greens here are more difficult to hit here, and when they are missed, it costs players a lil over half a stroke as well, so driving accurately and good approach shots from roughly 125-175 yards is a key skillset I will look at too, as half the shots are expected to land in this range. Also noting that we expect some missed greens and therefore around the green play is important for lessoning the penalty here.

Actual Wins vs Expected Wins

I don't have many nice things to say about Morikawa at this stage in the year. He should be a leverage play but honestly he hasn't shown us any reason to trust him in months now. The only player on the board overdue a win without winning this year.

Last Year's Optimal

Only 6 players scored over 100 points last year and Scottie was chalk, but did not actually make that optimal. Granted there was more competition up top in pricing that year too. Decent amount of leverage as well., but scored 639.5 pts.

Lineup Target

I'm estimating that we need about 100 pts per player on average for most GPP plays this week. This is the player set that I believe can get within reach of that score (top 40 ceilings). The winning lineup total should be around 601.66 pts.

Top 20 Odds

Since everyone in the field projects 100% odds of making the cut, we will use this top 20 chart in order to determine which of the field actually should finish in a good scoring position rather than the cut chart. Plays above the line tend to be good plays while outliers below the line still should be considered. Hovland, for example is an outlier, granted at 20% ownership I will have to root against him.

Last 4 years SG History

Who has gained the most strokes over the past 4 years at this venue? Scottie Scheffler of course, with Xander being a close 2nd.

Last 20 Rounds (Recent Form)

Sorted by top 15s, Kitayama seems to be showing best form recently with his win 2 tournaments ago, while projecting for single digit ownership. That could be one way to pivot. Hall, McCarthy and Harman also playing relatively well in their recent tournaments as well for low ownership projections.

Potential Value Plays per Upside

Something I haven't focused on in the past is value plays and rather value by projections, I would rather look at value based on potential upside since this is a GPP writeup. Upside just shows the potential if everything goes well for a player based on how they have done in the past. I filtered to those who project in range of having enough upside to reach the optimal score and then sorted by top value plays I show, which most project low ownership. I'd probably compare this to who fits the course stat wise when choosing. Si Woo was a let down last week and I cant tell if he will continue to be that, but he is really priced down this time.

Golfers most likely to pair with Scheffler in a lineup

These golfers showed up the most in lineups where I focused on Scheffler specifically. None extremely high so I dont know if I will put a ton of weight into this but will mention those value plays since they are different from the top value plays I show above.

If this writeup has helped you so far, consider liking the post that brought you here. More to come!

Correlated Course History

The names above are all the folks who have had the most success in finishing in the top 20 of events that are expected to play in similar style as this week's tournament. Some golfers just need to finish in the top 20 for their price while others may need to do better than that. Keep an eye on number of appearances though as 1 appearance could be a fluke or indication of things to come. I'll be curious how Justin Thomas does this week.

When looking at the course history of those who have done the worst at correlated courses, these names show up, and I tend to pay attention to the most appearances and most ownership here when debating potential fades. Fleetwood and Spaun are two guys I have no trouble fading this week on that note.

Stat fits

Using similar to last week, I am seeing the following ranks for the past 2 months of play. Russell Henley appears to be playing the best for this course over that span of time, with weight on approach and driving accuracy. I dont like to rely on stats alone but this might be a reference chart when making some decisions.

Updated 11:00pm CST

The 3 of these guys standing out the most and my personal lean has gone towards Rai the most accurate driver on tour, and Corey Conners, although i dont know if he is healthy. Been a long day so I'm just gonna optimize off the notes I put here and see what happens. Good luck!