PGA Rocket Classic June 2025 Odds, Analysis and Leverage for Draftkings Tournaments

Looks like we have a full cut event ahead and no Scottie, which means we get a real chart! Last week, Scheffler didnt do enough to remain needed in your lineups, and if sticking to the leverage / pivot train, you may have gotten to a handful of other guys that were good enough to win a ton of money. Thats the energy I will keep promoting no matter what the chalk is doing so that you know your options.

Odds and Situations

So here we go, which is my starter chart that builds my entries. The scatter plot is the calculated odds blend over salaries, meaning the higher the better your odds are to succeed and then the farther right, the more expensive you are based on draftkings averages and history, etc. Below the line is sorta dead zone/lacking value for their odds, while the far left / above the line is your cheap guys who can perform for their price. This is all to say that Morikawa, who I have been expecting to win for a long time now, is actually the top odds to win on the slate. One thing I like about that is Cantlay and Griffin currently project higher ownership than he does so I am going to start with Morikawa. Bradley ownership is lower but lacking value. Mid range is full of dead zone but Si Woo stands out to me as a 2nd play candidate. The greener the dot, the more leverage is possible with the play. The cheap end is packed full of names and likely where people bust the most through their builds. Either Hubbard or Norlander could be the cheapest guy in my entry core if I am building from the top scatter plot alone. The 4 tables all hint at the top calculated plays based on the sort order. Cantlay is the top projected upside if he wins. Tom Kim and Noren also have upside for their price points. Noren is showing as having 2 top 10s on the chart at the end. Sam Ryder is showing as one of the top playable leverage plays.

The guys who check all the boxes (mentioned 2 of them) are shown here as folks having history and relatively lower owned.

Actual Wins vs Expected Wins

It would seem that only 3 name qualified for this chart this week, and the top guy is the only one overdue a win, in Collin Morikawa. It is tempting to just lock him in this week after chasing all season, but need to see if his ownership projection actually rises. Ben Griffin has won twice but his expected wins is less than 1, so I might fade him out and hope he doesnt get lucky.

Course Fits (datagolf)

This is an odd chart as the leading skill set seems to be in driving accuracy as far as importance is concerned vs other courses. I looked at how each stat ranks and literally none stand out as far as extreme.

Recent Form

These guys have played the best over the past 5 tournaments so they likely can continue playing well another week into this one.

Last 4 years

Cantlay has actually gained the most strokes here of the field in this span on average, with the least amount of bogeys. After Morikawa there is a fall off.

Underowned but Optimal with Leverage

I am circling the 7 name that look interesting on the chart from an optimal perspective. Just maybe a couple of them end up being pivots off some chalkier plays this week, in a good way.

2024 Optimal Lineup

Looks like last year's optimal used up all the salary and had several chalky pieces do well here. The lineup scored 701 points and really didnt matter for leverage aside from the top leveraged play on the board at 5400. Gonna assume this one is also salary efficient and may keep my lineups within 300 of the max salary (49700+). Also noting 9 golfers scored over 100 pts so ceilings matter here and birdies.

Updated Pivot Chart

I added all the plays that qualified down here so we can get a better understanding of the highest owned on the slate mixed with who potential pivots are. I underlined the top 5 owned. The top tier has the most of course, but then I found 2 others in Davis Thompson and Cam Young. I am going to hope that Gerard outperforms Davis Thompson for less. He does have more birdies logged than Davis. Then Cam Young has worse odds than Si Woo at the value line, making him intriguing as a pivot spot. There are 3 guys named Kim on this slate which makes me nervous in itself.

Variance

I am tracking on variance across sports and so these 5 have the most variance on the slate for double digit ownership. Nick Dunlap has the most variance meaning he could be super boom ors super bust. Not sure how i feel about most of these names being top tier til we see how it plays out. The more definite fade list for me are these guys who most aren't playing anyways:

Good luck!