UFC 279 DFS - Draftkings Diaz Ferguson - September 11 2022

Its that time again where we try and find a few leverage spots using UFC data, odds and ownership. Taking my first look today as I prepare my NFL content as well today. They late added 3 fights including both main events and that makes it extremely weird.

Best odds appear to be Almeida for a win. Chimaev gets 2nd best odds but most ownership by far. It is a decision point as to play him, fade him or leverage the field with Holland although Chimaev also has the most upside on the slate, so that wont be an easy decision for me or anyone else.

Something also extremely weird is that the main event is extremely underwhelming with both fighters showing 7k range and less. If ownership stays low that is tough to pass on for value. If it goes the distance, potentially playing both of them could see value.

Almeida showing as under owned so likely going to be something I lock in personally. Ferguson being the favorite but less owned and similarly priced is something I probably get to as well. But we still need leverage..

I underlined the top 6 owned plays on the slate. If that is your lineup, you already lost so change it. At least two of those guys will get beat and not be optimal. Circling the pivotable leverage, we see quite the spread of leverage options, in particular for cheap.

Will highlight 3 less common fights worth a nod due to the combined volume potentially thrown:

1. Fight 3

This fight projects to be high in striking attempts, although the KO odds are low.

2. Fight 13

First fight of the night has ended in a KO often. If Lainesse does it, it is early. If not, perhaps Weeks makes him pay. Honorable mention goes to fight 9 as well for volume.

There are plenty of fighters with 100+ pt upside today. I will likely gravitate to most of them in every lineup I set. Good luck!