UFC DFS Odds and Leverage for Draftkings - Blaydes vs Pavlovich 2023

Updated: 2:10pm

Odds vs Own

Jackson appears to have our top odds of the day and therefore brings the most ownership and price with him. Is that price too much? It is if he loses or underperforms

Curtis Blaydes fight is one that appears to have weight towards a KO and based on his fight history I expect nothing less in the main event.

Right in the middle of the two is Wells who is going overlooked a lil bit, and you know what that means for me.

Leverage

Update 2:10pm - leverage is looking much clearer now. I think Wells is the best value for leverage. However the top leverage could be Lucindo and I think the path lineup wise could be if fading Jackson and possibly Wells, play Lucindo as those playing Jackson are unlikely to get to him. Jackson does have the highest projection on the slate, but as you know, I dont play soley from projections. I play my opponents.

I gotta say that Wells is my starting point today. There are others, like Danaa who will help increase the leverage so perhaps the top 2 exposures I'm going to have. On the cheap end we still have decisions to make.

The highest leverage points you can find will include either Wells, Lucindo, or Tavares. I still need to dig into their fights to ensure its good leverage, as leverage can also take you to the bottom.

Volume vs Finish Potential

The main event is a lock for me even at 81% ownership (possibly higher). No leveverage possible in targetting it, but I feel it is necessary today. Usman in action today as well with his high finish odds and reasonably low volume. That means it has to be an early finish as there could be some wrestling involved. I have some interest in fight 11 once again, where Danaa resides as well as Wells in fight 5. Ideally there wont be upsets in those fights.

Live Dogs

Who are they? I like 100 pt potential and 10x value, so there goes Walker for me as the history doesnt support it for him. 4 names stand out, 2 are on win streaks. Yahya faces the highest owned guy on the slate so that is huge leverage but huge risk based on win odds. Silva and Gordon are going to be on my radar regardless.

Check back later or updates!