UFC DFS Odds and Leverage for Draftkings - Fight Night Dern vs Hill - May 2023

I am a bit short on time so I will just get the visuals up for now and may get more commentary and explanation for those new to the page closer to lock.

Updated 2:27pm CST

Odds and Violence Meters

There are obvious plays per the vegas odds, and then there are not so obvious plays. Silva looks like a lock for a win per those odds but looks like locking in the highest price and ownership with you. I dont like that.

If I hand build a lineup for single entry, I'm going to start by looking at Hernandez and or Buckley, stronger leverage plays up top that are tougher to get with using Silva. Essentially, Silva will likely win and even get a finish. However I am hoping someone up top finishes with more points per dollar.

Individual Leverage

Another name that comes up in this view? Nascemento. One of the guys I have picked before with success, and I'm going right back to it. Value is ok for it and decently under owned to go there.

A guy named Gorimbo appears to be the darkest green, aka most leveraged fighter to look at here. I know nothing about him so be careful with that. Some other green tints of leverage are viable options here.

Fight Leverage

The main event having KO potential is interesting to me. Many times now, I've played Angela Hill and never have I seen her score more than like 87 points in a Decision win specifially. Fortunately for her price, she is at value if she does that yet again. However Dern by Submission odds are pretty darn high so thats got some risk there.

The fight going underowned that has my interest is fight 4 with Buckley. I hope he wins but if he doesnt, high chance Fialho is needed.

Projections

I care about Streaky fighters (Hill, Hernandez, etc), 10X or more Value , and 100 point upside. Not all have enough history to truly project in this sport, but you can see the ones with 100 point upside to date at least. There is always a surprise in the mix but that helps guide.