UFC DFS Odds and Leverage for Draftkings - Sandhagen vs Font - August 2023

Getting some early looks together in order to figure out which fights will have some potential that the field is not seeing. This page will go live later tonight or tomorrow

Odds and Finish Probabilities

Suarez comes in hot - best odds overall, one of the top owned fighters and a size mismatch for Andrade. Ownership seems to be right behind her and the high price, so its a good chance to look at what a lineup might look like without her. With the highest upside on the slate, it doesnt mean fade necessarily but - understand that there is a range of outcomes to account for. The next up with a good little dip in ownership? Jeremiah Wells. I hear a few folks saying to fade him and I can see a path to it, but if his odds are high and ownership is low, that is the sweet starting spot to me. Infact both fighters are coming in a bit underowned which means I'll have both in my pool, but will start with Wells unless I find real reason to avoid him.

On the right side, I see that fights 2, 8 and 9 have the highest finish chances on the board. Need to look at both sides of the fight to see why and who. The Philips/Barcelos fight has high chance of a decision / going the distance. Because of that, I will immediately look at whether or not the underdog value is there for Raoni Barcelos, because it seems to have decent pace, and that is usually an ownership discount with the underdog.

Odds and Situations

I'm looking at Suarez as the best odds to win, highest ownership next to Sandhagen, and the potential of having the highest score on the slate. This is a decision point in your lineup whether or not you take it, because Andrade is coming in on a bit of shorter notice, recently got beat in her last fight and yet, is savage enough to actually still have a shot. But I think you want one or the other in this fight and unfortunately no one looks stronger than her even at that ownership. There are a few pivot potential plays to her if you decide against playing her. Ignacio, Assu and Wells are the first candidates to look at for pivot reasons. In UFC, pivoting is strong when you get the right name.

One call out is that there are many options in the 8K range and its likely folks are paying up for at least 1 9k fighter. That makes me want to build a lineup that is more balanced today in a tournament for uniqueness. If i'm building a 3 max, one of the 3 will have that structure.

Pace

Andrade/Suarez is the obvious upside fight. Wells and Harris has about equal KO potential so I like that fight even more. The sneakier fight folks arent targetting that could have a finish here is Lopes vs Tucker, and I think its because its difficult to take a stand here. It is also difficult to project the points due to the history of Lopes. Thats what GPP is made of.

Size MisMatches

As you can see, there are lots of situations this week where the opponents have significant size advantages on the card. Some fighters take advantage of that and others dont so ideally we will find the path to victory ourselves.

Quick notes:

Suarez with a 4 inch reach advantage is a problem for the short notice Jessica, who is scrappy. The question is can Andrade get some takedowns to neutralize the advantage? The answer seems to be no, with Suarez showing 100% takedown defense. Therefore its going to have to be a case where Andrade can take some punches and deliver power blows if she wants to win at such a disadvantage. I have to side with Suarez here, but will still take a couple gpp shots at Andrade even though I feel like its a long shot.

Nzechukwu has a monster reach advantage, slight height advantage too, expected to win by KO even. Striking defense is near the same and Nzechukwu has the better takedown defense. I'm 100% going to lean his way here. He could potentially be a pivot off Sandhagen as well.

Lopes has the sizable advantage in reach meaning hes going to be touching some faces. The real problem with Lopes is that he has 2 losses / no wins showing in UFC and his defense sucks. Both sides of it, and so he is at risk of taking on damage despite that advantage. Then I look at the odds and it seems his expectation is that he is going to submit his opponent, which can happen, but that negates his reach advantage. I have a poor projection for Lopes because of his lack of win points to show, but I think this fight is intruiging and should be targetted for a finish, granted I am ok playing Tucker here for some leverage. Note that I will have both though

Ignacio - has a bit of height advantage in this one which is a rare thing to look at. I feel like that makes it tougher to submit him at least. Infact, both have really high takedown defense, and high striking counts which means this fight could have a lot of SS points at stake. Ignacio seems to have worse defense than Klein and Klein is a tad bit more accurate throwing strikes. I'm a bit torn on who to choose but will stick with Ignacio with some Klein attempts too. The tie break for me is the upside. If Ignacio wins, he has 100 point upside projected.

Philips has the advantage in reach here and honestly thats the only difference I see in these two fighters in the stats.

Live Dogs

A case can be made to play any one of these guys this week on the underdog side. Font and Andrade carry heavy upside if they win, so I'm going to force one or the other in every lineup i build this week, maybe both in some cases. I dont think Jacoby wins so I'm a lil lighter on him. Tucker has potential as well per the close matchup. Barcelos is expected to win by decision if he does win, but at 7300 should reach value either way.

Underowned Correlations?

Testing out a theory that there are correlated fighters today that can be built into our lineups. First explaination of what you see here:

The table of fighters are the most optimal but underowned on my list. I compare them to the scatterplot, which has the circled highest owned fighters underlined. I started to circle some names that I thought had potential to pivot, but only circled one from the list even though others are here.

The correlation piece is this: If I play a lineup with Assu, he is a potential pivot to Cory. If not playing Cory, I may want to play his opponent, Font. So that correlation may be made. Same thing happens with Harris as a potential pivot to Cory. Its not failproof, as Cory could win and not score enough points in the fight for example, to warrant a pivot, but its testing day. I'll play Font anywhere I'm playing Assu or Harris to see if it pans out. Andrade could be a pivot to Font as well, which means playing Andrade may be good to pair with Cory if you want to play him.

Good luck!