UFC DFS Odds and Leverage for Draftkings -UFC Paris- September 2023

This is just a quick data dump of whats happening over seas in the morning. The ownership ought to sharpen in the morning but wanted to see what we have for now.

Updated: 10:35 am

Odds and Expected Violence

Benoit Saint-Denis is an interesting fighter. Averaging 120 points in his fights and seemingly the best bet of the card. The Morgan fight right beneath it but she seems to be going a lil bit overowned so I may pass there for either Jacqueline or Oezdemir or Loosa. As for fight violence, the main event is expecting a finish and therefore I will have one or the other in every lineup. Then fights 3 , 4, and 6 all seem to carry some form of weight. If I am looking for underdogs off of this data, I'm looking at the far right - fight 5, where a fighter is an underdog costing 6900. A decision win is likely to bring value at that price if going there. Most of these fights appear to be low on violence expectatations so if we see lots of judge involvement today, it wouldnt surprise me.

Leverage

Looking for where to get a good fighter with low ownership, I'm probably going to start with Oezdemir. Ownership wont be low per se, but could be lower than his odds indicate. Spivac and Rodriguez are two names that are underdogs who might carry some weight in value. Guskov and Moises are both names we should look at in terms of win equity for leverage as well.

Pace vs KO potential

Several of these fights seems to have very low odds of a finish. I'll double check this in the morning to make sure its not an error in my data pull as this is bizarrely low to the point I dont have much of a read. Maybe gonna go for volume more than KO potential this week. That and matchup mismatches.

Mismatchups

4 of these fights seem to have what I call a signficant advantage in reaches. I'll circle through them and see what makes sense per the finish odds.

Gomis vs Yanis: Gomes has the 4 inch reach advantage so I will immediately lean his direction as the favorite. There just arent any ufc stats to back up what Yanis might do to get around this advantage and hes on short notice. The only issue here is that I dont know that Gomis gets more than 80 points and that is a problem towards his value, especially if this goes to a decisio win.

Taylor vs Caolan: Even larger reach advantage here for Taylor. Its another fight where Caolan doesnt have any stats to support him. The interesting thing here though is that Caolan has better odds of winning by KO specifically, so maybe theres some secret power with him that the stats dont show.

Loosa vs Mckee. Mckee has 4 inches over Loosa. However he has a 2 fight losing streak going, with bad takedown defense, which is exactly the thing that Loosa might do to win this fight. McKee hasnt shown much if any defense to date.

Farid vs Kleydson: Reach favors Farid and so do the submission odds. Rodriguez has pretty significant upside in his wins, but it seems theres just too much to overcome to get there.

Live Dogs

Some fights like 4 and 9 are fights I cant quite projection points for due to lack of history, but they bot hhave decently high KO odds. Serghei and Rose both show upside and potential to win as underdogs with 100 pts, and Thiago is right there behind them. They may be my favorite underdogs.