UFC PPV Odds and Leverage for Draftkings GPP - June 10 2023

This card looks fun and I want to get an idea of how to get different in a build today with the fighters in place. Coming up with a 6 fight parlay that pans out is pretty much how this sport works. Its not easy but may as well get weird with it.

Top Odds vs Ownership vs Violence

Malott seems to be the top odds for some form of success today and although ownership is close, its not quite surpassed his potential yet. Maverick, Dariush, Dvorak are the ones beneath him with the most potential for being underowned and those are likely where I'd suggest starting.

On the right side, fights 1, 2, and 3 are all highest probability of a KO with the least ownership.

Odds vs Salary

The most leverage you can find on todays slate might be Fugitt. Leverage for me means that there are success odds high enough that can change the way you approach your lineup and differentiate because of it. That doesnt mean it will pan out for the best, as sometimes leverage gets one punched and you fall to the bottom. I like the high risk high reward on slates like this. Fugitt seems like he has reasonable upside if he pulls it off.

Pace vs KO Potential

The co main event is only 3 rounds today but it feels like it has a high chance of a finish for the ownership so I am going to try and get to one or the other today. My lean may be based on ownership as I think they are both solid fighters. Then opening fight of the day also is intruiging a little too if it turns into a boxing match. That aligns to a finish for one fighter most of the time.

Projections

One of the toughest things to do is project points in the UFC. It is based on the average production of a fighter with limited opportunity to begin with, and variance swings worse than any other sport, especially when an eye poke or blow to the head can end a fight in a second. I do like to chase upside (100 or more points) as well as 10x value opportunities. Nunes has the most upside on the card so that may just be something I eat. However if Aldana can get to her 100 pt upside win at 6700, that could ake for an interesting Ige + Maverick combo too. Fugitt is showing 125 potential points, 2nd highest on the slate if he pulls off the upset as a leverage play.

Good luck! This page may update again before lock.