2025 Wyndham Championship - PGA Odds, Analysis and Leverage for Draftkings

It looks like this is another event like last week, where the talent levels are a bit all over the place and birdies are expected to fly. Taking a peek at this chart by chart to see where the field is going, where the field is going wrong, and then where you might go for leverage in these Draftkings tournaments. Lets go

Sneak Peak of the overall Odds vs Salary

Since this is the first chart I opened, I figure this is where we will begin this week. Not to make decisions yet, but to get an idea of where value is. If you saw last week's chart, many plays below the trend line ended up valuable and so keep that in mind, but we still should strive to play the best plays and find our pivots where they make sense. This is the first time all year where the person with the best odds doesn't have the highest price -> Aaron Rai. He might have the most upside but he may also have the most ownership based on my early run. Kevin Yu, last week's cut misser, next to Thor Olsen, and fellow cut misser Ghim are all in line for being the top individual leverage plays this week. Webb Simpson appears to still have more top 10s than anyone here as he basically owns this course historically. But this is just FYI for starters; lets start looking at cut odds and what our target numbers are.

Lineup and Player Targets

One thing I have to do differently this week is take away the bottom tier, where players have less than 1% success odds showing. With that, I can see that 103 is our target per player. That puts us as about 621 points for a lineup target to compete, with upside around 721 pts for GPP winners if the birdies take off from the cheap contenders.

Make the Cut

We have some resemblance of a trend this week with this narrowed player pool. Like last week, I will caution that there are others who dont have data that points to their true upside on the cheaper end for easier courses, and therefore this could filter out good plays who historically haven't done well this year. However I am sticking true to this strategy regardless for good practice. Like last week, both Putnam and Bez are both the cheapest two names on the chart. One made top 20, the other was one of the first top 20 out of the tournament.

Course Fits (datagolf)

Both driving accuracy and approach play seem highly important here in relation to other courses. Ironically this course shows as one of the easier courses for approach play on tour, although gaining strokes after penalties - probably from bad drives is what holds several players back. I also see it being one of the easier for par 5 scoring which is why birdies are available.

Last 4 years SG History

Sungjae, Spieth and Bradley have all gained the most strokes over the past 4 year span to my surprise. Webb Simpson had the better finishes over the past 5 years though, with 3 top 10s in that space, but otherwise these 3 have played this course better a bit more recently.

Recent Form

Surprisingly Beau Hossler has had 3 top 10s in his last 4 tournaments, while missing cut last week. He could end up going under-owned as a result of recency bias. Granted I don't see his SG numbers from past 4 years at this course in particular.

Odds of Finishing in the top 20

Names that start to stand out a little bit: Rico Hoey on the cheap end. Not bad in recent top 15s and showing somewhat value. His ceiling is within reach as well. When pairing them with names of folks who hit the optimizer the most while projecting lower ownership, the circled names are the value plays. Bez would be up there too but hes not showing any leverage this week for those wondering. That could be ok for his price, but you will certainly need to get extra leverage elsewhere if you do play him. Hoey is showing half the ownership of Bez early on so there is that pivot thought too.

Who is pairing with top ownership?

Aaron Rai:

The top 3 names I show with Rai when optimizing with him include Si Woo, Poston and Bez. Not extremely highly but they are out there around 19-15% range. I feel like that is something I would try and limit if hand building 1 entry.

Matt Fitzpatrick:

Rai, Si Woo, and Bez are the most likely pairings when it comes to Fitzpatrick lineups. Bez is in both along with Si Woo so expect them both to come in hot ownership wise.

More updates to come as we get closer to lock. If this writeup helps you, consider clicking the like buttons on whatever post brought you here!

----------------------------------------------------update 7/30/2025---------------------------------------------

Last Year's Results

These 7 names are the only 7 who scored over 100 points last year. None of which priced over 8800, and only one showing a high leverage number. This is a bit concerning for trying to optimize this week! The overall optimal:

No one built this lineup as the top scoring lineup that was built in draftkings last year - overall was in the drive the green contest (once again!) and it scored 668.50 pts. I dont recommend trying to build the optimal lineup, but I do recommend building lineups where you think a player will score 100 pts or more. In context, Aaron Rai - who was similarly owned last year with negative leverage, averaged about 4 birdies per round and 1 bogey per round.

Course Correlations

Wyndham has a decent correlation to TPC Sawgrass, so taking a look at who has done well over time here vs the ownership. Fitzpatrick has finished in the top 20 100% of the time in his 2 appearances that I found. However on further investigation, this view only considers when the player was not cut and he was cut twice at TPC Sawgrass, with 0 appearances at Wyndham in the past few years. So please note, that this does not count the missed cuts - but only factors in finish position counts. On the cheaper end, Adam Hadwin has a few good finishes here, but last 2 years has missed cut, which isnt promising unless he had a valid reason for missing those years vs this year.

If we want to get deeper into the correlated courses: 2025 Correlated Events Played So Far:

• THE PLAYERS Championship (TPC Sawgrass): March 13-16, 2025

• RBC Heritage (Harbour Town Golf Links): April 17-20, 2025

• Charles Schwab Challenge (Colonial Country Club): May 22-25, 2025

Some contenders for core plays that may be course fits

1. Robert MacIntyre ($9,600): Exhibited very strong SG: APP (+1.474) at The Players Championship, where he finished T9. As a higher-priced player, his top-10 finish on a demanding correlated course makes him a strong candidate.

2. Akshay Bhatia ($9,000): Showed consistent strength with SG: APP, posting +1.395 at The Players (T3 finish) and +1.643 at the RBC Heritage (T42 finish). This consistent high-level approach play across two correlated courses positions him well for Sedgefield.

3. Rico Hoey ($7,300): With a +1.190 SG: APP at The Players (T33 finish), Hoey presents as a mid-range salary option who can perform well with his irons on a challenging course.

4. Max McGreevy ($6,800): Despite a T20 finish at The Players, his impressive +1.393 SG: APP indicates his iron game is sharp. As a cheaper option, this makes him a solid value play for a top 20 finish.

5. Tom Kim ($7,500): While he finished T42 at The Players, his remarkable +2.470 SG: APP score there is elite. If his other areas of the game align, his approach play alone could lead to a very strong showing at Sedgefield, making him an interesting mid-range pick.

6. Ben Kohles ($6,700): Registered a strong +1.516 SG: APP at The Players Championship, although he missed the cut. This highlights excellent ball-striking potential at a cheaper price, suggesting a higher ceiling if he can put four rounds together.

7. Henrik Norlander ($6,500): Posted a +1.256 SG: APP at The Players Championship (missed cut). Similar to Kohles, his strong approach numbers at a correlated course make him a potential value play if other parts of his game click.

8. Nate Lashley ($6,700): Had an outstanding +1.701 SG: APP at The Players Championship, despite missing the cut. His iron play alone is enough to consider him as a low-cost option with high upside for a top 20 finish if he can get his putting going.

9. Stephan Jaeger ($6,900): With a +1.276 SG: APP at The Players Championship, where he finished T20, Jaeger shows consistent form that aligns with the Sedgefield course demands, making him a reliable mid-range choice.

10. Matthieu Pavon ($6,300): Posted a +1.444 SG: APP at The Players Championship (T54 finish). His strong approach play at a very affordable DraftKings salary makes him an intriguing dart throw for a top 20 finish, provided he can improve other aspects of his game.

    
    

Ill update the charts tonight as time permits if ownership shifts.

Holistic view shows Olsen, Yu and Kitiyama having decent leverage. Not putting a ton of effort into a leverage build this week as I think 1 or 2 key leverage might pair with some low leverage plays at this course.

Top 5 Finish Odds vs Optimal but Underowned

I circled the value guys who paired with underowned, but as we all know, some guys are underowned for good reasons. If I were to pick from this list, I'd imagine that Rai will be higher owned than he shows here due to winning last year. It is nice to see Bhatia and MacIntyre in the range of success and underowned per my previous post. Maybe JT or Davis could end up doing OK on the cheaper end. Smalley is someone I rarely have good luck with. Noren seems like he would fit this course as well.

SG Since June 1st

I just got ahold of some recent strokes gained data which goes back to June 1st through today. The idea is that a combination of SG Approach + accurate driving + decent putting is the formula for winners here, I sorted this top to bottom based on who fit all 3 categories the best. Fitzpatrick actually does, while Rai falls short. If you want a reason to fade Rai when he is likely the chalk, this might be it, as Approach feels like it is of high importance, although he is 2nd in driving accuracy. Fitzpatrick may be the actual best play, thus why draftkings priced him up?

I am going to also call out Ben Kohles as a guy not on my upside chart, but I will be monitoring in case he puts it all together this week for the price. Not enough time to do much analysis with this dataset this week but I will try and pull it rest of the season.