PGA DFS Odds, Analysis and Leverage for Draftkings GPPs - Valero Texas Open 2026

This is the final week before the majors, which means that we have to be careful of the top names in the pool withdrawing if they have a history of that. Texas is kinda friendly for me in entries because I know the homers tend to have the best course history and becaue the timezone is the same as mines (aka no 5am start times). So ideally I will have a final look at ownership right before lock. Most items are not expected to change drastically but yet sometimes them pivots really expose best with a little shift in ownership in either direction. I'll walk through my typical charts that highlight best plays and pivots, along with my sims results for your enjoyment.

Odds and Top Ownership

Interesting shape here based on the salaries and field strength. We expect Spieth to be the highest owned play at this time yet he isnt the highest priced which is interesting. Fleetwood is the highest priced but he barely has the highest odds/best value from what I am seeing. And most lineups are going to try and likely get two from the top priced based on the ownership, maybe 3, for stars and scrubs. That leaves Hideki, Si Woo, and Fowler as the least owned in the top space. On the cheap side Mac Meissner is looking like the top value at sub 5% projected ownership. The cheapest above the line plays are between Beau Hossler and Andrew Putnam so I am interested in playing one of the two in my pool of players.

Realistic Pool

Realistically these are the names in the field that will matter the most, if trimming down. They are most likely to score in a range required to win a gpp if you get the right 6 together. I'm estimating we need to target 567.6 pts in our lineups.

Course Fits

Per Datagolf, this course does not require distance or accuracy in driving stats. Instead good approach, around the green and putting will be the skillsets most applicable to success. That hints at scrambling and essentially finding your way to the green on the 2nd or 3rd shot as quickly as possible.

Performance Stats (sorted by approach)

Just peeking at whichnames are doing the best in those secondary stats and Hideki is up there in both around the green and approach play, so he may be where I begin my lineups, based on low ownership from the top group. Nick Taylor and Alex Smalley are both low owned for having good approach play as well.

SG History at Valero

As mentioned at the top, course history is a real factor here as to predicting who will do well. Henley and Hideki have the most strokes gained in the field. However Will Zalatoris, a guy I havent played in a long time, is 3rd on the list, with low ownership and price. That is something I might take a chance on with his 11% chance of reaching the top 10.

GPP Targets

I mentioned I was between Beau and Putnam early on, and now it is more clear that I am leaning Beau if i am to build a lineup with GPP winning upside. His position on this chart (upper left) tells me that he has a high ceiling for low ownership. A 2nd or 3rd play will likely come from that quadrant. Adrien dumont De Chassart is also interesting but seemingly on the cusp of not being low owned. The others may come from what the boom bust tool gives me.

Sims Defined Leverage

These names were called out as far as leverage is considered. Gotta dig in to see if good or bad leverage. For example, I just peeked at Chassart's history and realize in the past 5 years, he has 1 performance here and it was a mc. too risky for me.

Check back later for that insight!