DFS NFL Odds and Leverage for Draftkings GPPs - Week 3 2024

While week 2 is a difficult one to project, week 3 is also quite tough with only 2 games to work with. Crazy enough, I resurrected an old sim program I created and that turned out to be quite predictable for week 2 (check my twitter feed for result review). I had some errors generating them this morning so I wont be posting those. I will go through my data based insights one by one here though.

Ceilings and Situations

I use this chart to measure who has the workload that could end up producing the highest ceilings. Barkley is that guy this week in expectations, especially after dropping the walk in touchdown last week. Achane is up there with him surprisingly, as Mostert is out. Notice all the runners up top, as it appears that we are seeing teams beef up their running games as well as their pass defenses.

Peeking at the tables above, Hurts, Goff, Burrow and.. Bo Nix are all in line for blowup weeks once they start landing touchdowns to match their workloads. Infact Detroit sticks out across the board so that is a team to follow.

Vegas Projections

Detroit vs AZ is the only total Vegas has projected over 50 pts, while my sheet has it going under that total. I have New Orleans vs Philadelphia going over that total due to early season scoring and poor defensive play. It is a 2 game sample so these numbers are still not settled yet. Lots of totals projecting 40 and less this week, so we assume less scoring to happen, which means less scoring in fantasy points too

Projections seem to follow the Ravens / Cowboys game and the Detroit / Arizona game while ownership isn't quite keeping up.

Summary of Situations

This is the point in which I try and find the best of our overall player situations that may help build the lineups. I will reference the sections of this chart as I explore each position.

QBs

Not the best angle on this view as theres a bit of flatness of the curve on QBs with leverage. There are some that do not display here because they calculate as less than neutral in leverage. Daniel Jones is kinda floating up there again. His QB situation doesn't really support it unless he is rushing well. This may come down to pairing a QB to his WR today.

RBs

Barkley and Achane are leading the way here in usage so they top the chart for RBs. I would say that taking the best RB is better than taking the leverage at this position since it is quite critical to success.

WRs

Another interesting view this week, Jamison Williams seems to have gotten quite a bit of work so far this year. Will it stay up? Hard to tell but I will throw him in a lineup. Surprised to see Tyreek at 2% ownership though. Too many over priced plays this week I suppose.

Defense vs Receivers

Seattle has been good against the WR1 so that may explain it. That and.. well his QB is very much a concern.

TE

Not sure where all the TEs are but you are either playing one of these volume leverage guys, a chalk guy or ..

Eric Saubert, who appears to be Kittle's backup, and projecting well because he faces the worst team vs TEs today.

Projections

Top 5 projected at each position including defense. I may go ahead and take the Packers defense vs Tennesee this week. Most lineups will have Mason and Kamara at RB so maybe worth not playing them both.

Sims

Postponed