DFS NFL Thursday Night Football Showdown - Giants vs Cowboys TNF 2024

Nothing better than NFL season because I love (and hate) the quick turnaround between weeks. Last week we started to see some of my projections really start to shine and I hope that this next week or 2 we hit our stride. It starts with Thursday night and I have taken some looks at things leading into this write up that I will share below, outlining my process.

Odds vs Situations

Starting the day and this is pre-inactive report, this is what our 3 week workload and ceiling scatter plot looks like. Nabers has reached the ceiling of the chart and that makes him the best starting point for lineups (the higher the better). Ceedee is the most expensive and the most popular play expected tonight, yet I do not believe he will be optimal unless Dak literally throws solely to him and he scores 2+ tds (which is possible unfortunately). I'm just going to not do that, as I dont play for ties or 2nd.

This one thing made me double take and look deeper: Over 3 weeks Ceedee Lamb has the same amount of targets as ... Wan'Dale Robinson. Didn't see that coming because Wan'dale hasnt done chit with those targets to date. However at half the ownership and price, it leads to a 2nd play of interest, in the event he actually breaks free for a TD. Then at the cheapest end, I see Schoomaker floating in the sub 2k percent and maybe we have to look closer at snap counts and DVP below.

The bluest of the dots (aka most leverage) is Devin Singletary. We will explore that situation some more shortly as well.

My Vegas Projections

My plan is to build 3 lineups and they will all focus on potential game scripts. This above is my sheet's projection of the potential score tonight and from there I have to derive what might happen in order to get contrarian. For example, this game will not end 24-24, but it tells me that the game could potentially go over its implied total of 44.5 and therefore each team could have 3 touchdowns a piece. We also know this is a Thursday night and short weeks tend to lead to under production performances. Looking further into it, the Giants are projecting to go over their implied total and cover the spread as the home team. If they cover the spread, it'd put pressure on the Cowboys to meet expectations or else they face potential upset this week.

Statmuse

I found this a 'muse'ing. Dak has beaten the Giants 12 times, lost twice in his career. The only losses were in 2016 when he first started. I will say he plays better at hoe though when looking at his TDs vs the Giants. 0 last September. Streaks are somewhat meant to be broken but thought I'd mention this one.

Game Flow

Dallas has been dead last in DVOA vs the run. This is why I will have some Singletary in my lineups. Daniel Jones is also in a decent environment to score through passing or running. If Dak scores, it appears that 61% of the time it is by passing. One thing to note about that, when looking at adjusted sack rates, the Giants looked to be in position to get to Dak as well. Getting sacked doesnt mean you dont move the ball but it is a consideration.

Defense vs Receivers

So here, we can see a path to a pass catching RB and WR2 (Wan'Dale) having success if the Giants are passing the ball. WR3 looks like a difficult matchup.

Dallas looks good for just about everything except WR2 so perhaps fading Cook tonight.

Snap Counts

Not all snaps are created evenly but I figured I'd show this because it may give some indications to some dumpster diving. I don't consider plays with single digit snaps, but if they have say - 20ish snaps and under 1000, I'd probably take a shot and hope one is for a TD.

When Dallas has the ball:

Dak is likely my favorite captain. In the event that Dallas wins this game and NY Giants underperform, maybe there is a path to CeeDee panning out in the captain spot, but that is a case of adding a single digit play into the lineup (Schoonmaker, etc). To be honest, I'm not a big fan of the Dallas stacks just because I'm planning on the NY Giants covering the spread, to make value, but that is one way.

When NY Giants has the ball:

I am a fan of stacking 4 Giants and hoping that they dont entirely suck tonight. This is because of the work being consolidated to 4 people -> Jones, Singletary, Nabers and -> Robinson surprisingly. This makes Jones a good double stack option at captain even. Singletary is my 2nd favorite play at captain though. If I go any cheaper at options on either team, its to build a 4th jam em in lineup and thats likely with say - Dowdle at captain as of now.

If this change, I'll update the charts on this page. Good luck!