DFS PGA Odds, Analysis and Leverage Points for Draftkings Tournaments - 3M Open 2025

Last week's writeup hit on many key spots, enough for me to finish well. Hope it helped you in some capacity. This one will be a bit shorter due to time constraints.

Updates:2:36pm added to the bottom

Cut Makers

This week's player pool is quite different than the last as we start seeing names of golfers who don't quite have the history on pga tour as others. This brings in a bit more variance to the chart. However i will still try and focus on the same system of seeing who falls above the trend line. Left to right is cheapest to most expensive, and all of these names are on the upper side of predictable upside. That puts McNealy and Burns at the highest odds to make the cut this week, with Bez and Putnam on the cheaper side as value plays (above the line).

Lineup Targets

One of the first things I also like to do now is understand the range of outcomes from both a player perspective as well as a lineup perspective. I anticipate that each player needs to average about 97 points in order to have a lineup compete for a top prize. That would indicate that 586 (close to 600 points) is your lineup. With it being a birdie fest, the upside score is more likely - at 680.14 points. In previous weeks we have seen what it takes to score roughly 100 points, and quite frankly that means more than just finish position - we need guys who go for birdies. When I build a lineup, it will come from this list - which means we are already down from 153 potential players to 38ish, and the less players in your pool, the less combinations you have to worry about. I will say this is a week in which I worry a bit more due to the random guy who 'could' go off, but I will rather keep consistency than chase that event.

Odds vs Situations

This is a chart (and 4 tables) I usually look at for a holistic view of the slate. Odds start to blend with win chances and leverage here. Matt Wallace and Mark Hubbard are currently showing the most leverage on this page but that is something that can change before lock. First table also showing several guys with 100 point upside. On the chart I can see that Si Woo is the highest point of leverage on the chart, which means he will likely end up being a pivot to one of the big 3 plays, just like Bryson was last week.

Course Fits (datagolf)

TPC Twin Cities looks like a course that benefits those who drive accurately over distance, although it is a long course. There is lots of water and so that is where accuracy comes to play. It also appears on the easier side for putting. In fact it is one of the top 5 easiest courses for putts outside of 15 feet, granted they still need to make them. Based on Around Green being slightly high, I assume scrambling is important for those who miss drives.

Last 20 Rounds

Looking at who has been in the top 15 of their previous 4 tournaments, it is a very thin list to choose from so I fully expect variance to take over this week.

Correlated Course History

The 3 most correlated courses were grabbed to make this listing. I combined the best and worst of those who had at least 2 appearances in the course history of these related courses, and if they have recent form that matches up, you can see that in the yellow columns here.

Odds of a Top 5 Finish

In case I dont get to update timely, this is a new look at those who have odds of a top 5 finish and how they land in the scatter plot. Ill leave it up to you guys to do your own research as to who might fit in stats from driving accuracy to whatever stats you wish to focus on.

2024 Optimal Lineup

Looks like Vegas won last year's event and it was dominated by guys scoring over 100 points each due to this birdie fest. Almost 700 points total. Noting that Burns finished 12th but was the 6th highest scorer last year, so scoring is critical over finishing position.

Underowned but Optimal

I circled the guys who show up as value here where if ownership stays down, the play could reach value from their place in the winning lineups.

If this writeup helps you build a lineup, be sure to drop a like or comment on the thread that brought you here. GL!

Updates as of 1:45 pm CST

SG Last 4 years History

This is the past 4 years of strokes gains total sorted. Burns has done the most work here in gaining strokes on his rounds. Sungjae actually shows up 2nd for me. He's below the value line in odds for some reason (possibly recent form). I believe Bezuidenhout is one of my favorite value plays and then I see Si Woo, ahead of McNealy. That might be relevant this week.

Updated Ownership and Pivot Potential

I see the names above are the top 5 in expected ownership. Those numbers do fluctuate and so i like to get a look at all 5 to see where someone else in that price range might be lower owned. I circled those names, which some are also not value plays, but perhaps they still could pan out. Sungjae stands out if not playing Gotterup. Si Woo stands out as someone with more experience here than McNealy for cheaper. Then Bhatia has lots of options in his range, except he is clearly better odds than the others down there, so his pivot will be tough. Some guys like Thorbjomsen are low value and may just be names you skip over. It only takes 1 pivot but there are the options.

I will say that the reason that Thorbjomsen is popular: he is top 5 in birdies and total driving in the stats. That means fading him could be a bad idea if you are one to trust the stats.

Optimizer Games

This is not necessarily something Ive done too much (last week was first look). As I explore the idea, I will share the insight. What I am doing is running lineups to see who is most likely to pair with the given person to most by the optimizer. This could help in understanding who to play or avoid in your builds if you want to be more unique or more inline with the optimizer. Last week none of the pairings made the top 10 which is something I may try to replicate.

Mcnealy

The highest pairing is with Bhatia for lineups playing McNealy. Therefore I am thinking if I build a lineup with McNealy - maybe there is room to not play Bhatia , although it is 19%, 17% and 16% - all low close numbers. I normally focus on pairs over 20% together so that one is tricky.

Burns

Bhatia is once again pairing at a high rate to Burns. Si Woo may come in higher owned than the projected 12% by association.

Gotterup

Interestingly, Gotterup pairs with Bhatia and McNealy through the optimizer. Any of these names appearing often are contenders to be higher owned than projected. Gotterup to Bez is not showing here, so that is interesting to me. I personally wanted to fade Gotterup due to his popularity from the start. However I am reconsidering him + Bez for an entry since it is a little lower on the list than the others.

It also has to be said that Bez is showing on 3 of the 4 charts, meaning he could see an increase in his projected ownership. Putnam might end up being someone to play instead of him in some lineups as a result just to not go over on exposure to someone who could just as easily bust too.