DFS PGA Odds and Leverage for Draftkings Tournaments - Genesis Invitational 2026

Last week turned out profitable across lineups thanks to landing on Min Woo at t2 plus some other hits. You can find some wrapup notes on the end of all of my X threads as I try and improve weekly where things work or don't work. Follow me there for the latest and greatest -> https://x.com/dfsedric

Odds and Situations

We start the week with the 4 tables plus scatterplot against my custom odds to find value and leverage next to the typical top plays. One item that is notable this week is that Scheffler's ownership (27%) is down from the past few weeks to a more realistic number that mirrors actual results. His builds at 14k price have shown to be profitable in some cases even when he isn't optimal/1st place finish. 30% of the top 100 lineups had Scheffler last week in the sand trap for reference. More insights on last week found on X -> https://x.com/dfsedric/status/2023851583600202029

His success odds live atop of the chart and require them value plays in the 6K and 7k range. Sam Stevens who did poorly last week might be in bounce back status as the cheapest 'above the line' play. The other thing I key on in this chart is the lowest ownership above the top plays. It has been Xander lately. He had a good showing last week but now his ownership is creeping upwards. The lowest of the top salaries is Russell Henley this week but he is also below the line, yet half the ownership of Xander so that is a decision point or a combination to play. Gonna keep my eye on Harris English as well for being above the line in the mid range. He was one of the most optimal plays when I ran 500 lineups, which means his ownership might be low in projections.

Diving into the scatter plot deeper to see what the top ownership is projecting at, I underlined the 6 highest owned names on the board. Having 1-2 of those names isnt a bad idea when establishing a core. However you will want to balance that out with leverage. I circled 6 lower owned named that could be pivots to the top owned plays, which are mostly the top salaried and top odds on the board. Of all names I havent really called out lately, JT Poston is interesting here due to his position, price and the fact he has a top 10 at this event in the past.

It is still early in the year for this to pan out but the 3 names in the field who have played well enough to win over the course of the season are here, with Ryan Gerard still waiting for his.

Course Fits (datagolf)

It appears that this course will favor distance + around the green play (scrambling possibly) over accuracy. Course history is also going to be important here for predictability purposes. Last year, winning scores were barely -12, -10 so expecting lower scoring, bogey avoidance being key, as well as putting on the poa greens. These are the top POA putting rankings I could find:

Justin Rose leads the way and Harris is still up there. If I have a sec I may look at who has been the top scrambler over the past 5 weeks.

History at Genesis Inv

Rather than looking at just the finishes, we can look into strokes gained to see who has played this course the best on average. Morikawa surprisingly has been a top dog here. I dont normally play a golfer the week after he wins but I may have 'some' based on his ownership. Sam Burns, Mav McNealy and Russell Henley/Si Woo all landing towards the top of the chart in SG for low ownership.

It was brought to my attention that last year's event was played at a different venue, due to the fires. Therefore I did another view without 2025 included:

Primary Pool

This is the list of golfers who seem to have the upside of getting to my target score of 630 this week in tournaments. Of this list, Henley stands out once again as one of the lower owned, but Ben Griffen, who let me down last week, also stands out too as someone that could bounce back. Rose, Harrison, Sepp and Min Woo might be the best value of this list.

Otherwise these are the top value plays, in which some is because of the 6K price range on darts. If these guys have a top 10 finish, they could end up smashing value.

Value plays with low ownership are essentially the upper left quadrant. Penge, McGreevy, Higgo and Stevens... all viable to miss cut but if they go off they can be GPP winners.

Scottie Scheffler correlations

I give Scottie his own section just because of his salary and win odds on a weekly basis. Last week his pairings didnt do too bad. Morikawa was one of the top pairings for him who won. This week I am seeing Mccarthy and Theegala up top, with Lowry and Hovland also having solid history here, but less leverage. The real key to this chart is finding the play that makes the most sense to you and finding those correlations when using this tool. As of now, Harris English is one of my most intruiging plays so I will show his:

Money Chart

I separate this into 2 pieces where the top chart is essentially the lower owned plays to see how the value might exist towards their odds. The bottom chart is essentially picking which of the top owned guys you are most comfy with per their ownership and odds. Xander, Cam Young, and Colin look to be the strongest.

Harris English Correlations

Coincidentally several of his correlations are on my radar. I will also warn that their average finish positions do not look good sooo names like Si Woo may not be what I do in my primary build, yet he has come out playing well this year so I wont rule him out either. Xander, Hoge and Rai all look decent historically for the price. On the right side, I see Max Homa with pretty elite history here at decent ownership.

Top Simulated Lineups

Here are the top 30 lineups that were generated from my sim run as of 2/18/2026. The idea here is to find what type of construction and players are landing in these lineups to see if certain players might make sense. Last week, the 13th top lineup was good for 500th out of 48000 lineups. Maybe we get another.

Good luck!