DFS PGA Odds and Leverage for Draftkings Tournaments - Pebble Beach 2026

Not gonna lie, I just got back from Vegas, tired and possibly dehydrated but still gonna see if I can get some basic insights out from my normal charts and such. This appears to be a no cut event which puts some of the weaker golfers in play to make their ceilings. Lets see how things shake out!

Odds vs Situations

Another week where Scheffler dominates the top of the chart, which means proceed with caution. I will say that he showed up more optimal this week than the last week or two so his correct price point may be around 14k after all. The 3rd table is a quick list leverage plays grouping so dont forget them. Harris English and Michael THorbsen are names I'm going to look at first, while Keegan Bradley is on the cheaper end of that list.

I circled the names that I see as interesting in the plot, while underlining anyone projected over 20% owned. Bridgeman is the cheapest above the line name I show here. I suspect one of the 24%+ owned guys will need to be pivoted off of this week.

Course Fits

This course has multiple so I wont put a ton of effort into this. I just know that approach play might matter today.

Expected Wins vs Actual Wins

Gerard came in as the only name without a win but has played well enough to win over the course of his tournaments so far.

Ceilings vs Targets

This is the zone of plays that I feel are most likely to reach the optimal when narrowing down the field. I suspect each lineup needs about 100 points per player on average (winning score about 600+ in GPPs is our target). Min Woo, Sam Burns and Cam Young have the highest value in that range of plays to watch out for. Thorbjornsen is also in the list as the single digit owned guy, right about Min Woo, the guy with the min ownership this week so those are 2 of my fav plays.

Money Chart

This is two separate views; first being elite plays which are high ownership guys with respect to each other. Rory, Fitz and Si woo all have potential as a core play. The top chart shows the lower owned guys with high odds in reference to their ownership. Xander, Thorb and English all show up here in this range of pivot. Same with Hideki, Young, Gotterup and Ben G, but further right = higher ownership.

Boom vs Bust

1st: Scottie pairings

We are going to play some Scottie today with it being a no cut that he has played well in the past + his optimal percentage being high enough to warrant it. I see a few names that I do like that pair with him in the mix and so I will focus on them in his lineups where I can. Horschel has a decent average finishing place here too although hasn't played that well lately, which makes some leverage. Daniel Berger got first in his only attempt to play this course in the past so thats interesting, since he shows up as a core play as well when paired with Scheffler. Victor Hovland is a name that does not pair well with Scheff lineups so that is also interesting.

2. Victor Hovland Pairs

   

   Since Hovland doesnt correlate well I wanted to see the top plays that go well with hovland. Some of which look good like Henley as a leverage guy and Si Woo as a top guy over the past 5 courses. Many of which appear good in recent form if thats how you want to approach this course.

Sim Data

Core Plays

Value Plays based on Ceiling

Top Leverage Plays

Top Simulated Lineups

These lineups are mostly just showing the names who pop the most. I see a bit of the guys I mentioend in the mix. I'll play the top two blindly just to follow them. Good luck!