PGA DFS Odds and Leverage Breakdown for the WM Phoenix Open January 2026

Been doing a whole lot of tinkering with my tools as the season begins so I can convert to autopilot later on. This week I have created new insights that I found to be a hole in my system in general so I will talk a bit about that as we get into these typical, yet upgraded views for tomorrow!

Odds vs Situations

This week, Scottie is clearly back in the field as he leaps over the next closest person in the chart. What makes this one interesting to me is that Xander just screwed over lots of lineups last week, and now falls into the 'Si Woo' zone of last week. Hes lowest owned at the top which is a leverage spot I typically like. However he is also slightly below my value line which I dont love. Harris English is technically the top above the line play with the least ownership showing. Then the very cheap end is Mac Meissner who made cut last week. If playing Scottie, I'd likely just pair the two to begin my single entry just in how this is designed. There are a few names above the line and seeing who fits is ideal, as this view has done well so far this year.

Course Fits

Datagolf visual here that I like to peek at because it highlights the skillsets that are required here. Since nothing specifically stands out, I'll default to relying on t2g + approach to begin looking at who is playing well all around.

Target Score

The players here are within reach projection wise, of the score I think is needed to compete here (109 per player), which means lineups will likely need around 658 in tournaments. Scottie can carry a guy if he wins it. Otherwise may look for a combo of Xander + 1 of the top 7 to get there. One thing I do want to mention is that if a cheap guy reaches their ceiling, they might see around 14x for the bottom of this list so maybe one of them pans out for single digit ownership?

Performance this year

I sorted this by approach strokes gained since its a good indicator of all around players. Pat Rodgers leads the pack in that stat. Bez not far behind, with stronger putting so those are names I'll keep in mind on the cheaper side, at low ownership.

Win Odds

Players with win equity for their price are who I want to continue to target. If they dont win they could still be of value. I see Gotterup and English in this view as the cheaper options, 8K range at least with the higher ceiling. We will need more cheaper options though...

Boom Potential

One thing that I have noticed in review this week, is that some players will not project well at all, but I have them as good value in the case they hit their ceiling. So I made this view, where the higher on the chart, the worst the player projects (thus less owned) and yet the ceiling remains in place. So Xander is my first pick this week even over Scheffler who everyone projects to win. If he wins, he will likely kill the field in points as always, but this is the 'what if he doesnt' case. Any name above that trend line is a contender at this point, but lower owned names we continue to see pop over and over are likely where I fill the gaps.

Another look at that top left corner. The first line indicates plays under 5% projected ownership with lots of upside. Dart status. 2nd line is 10% or less owned.

Boom Bust Tool (#1, Scottie)

I reworked quite a bit of this from last week. This one is filtered to Scottie so that I can get an idea of who booms with him. You can visit this thread for some background on last week - and how I got here https://x.com/dfsedric/status/2019149303885840598

Since I will likely build one for the guy with the highest chance to win, its wise to see who excelled in my sims with him.

The additions to this first table with correlated golfers is the RF and CH, (recent form and course history). JT Poston was the name that stayed with Scheffler lineups the most, but honestly none of those names look very good in recent form. That tells me his lineups might stink. Maybe Cam Young at best but that pairing will be difficult to fit salary wise.

Updated run -

Boom Bust # 2 (Xander)

Since Xander didnt project very strongly we get even less names correlated, with limited course history even. Coody would be my Andrew Novak and Brooks K. could have a case made for them. English and Thorb also look like decent plays with Xander. Tony Finau - in the mix too.

updated --

Correlated Course History

When consolidating multiple similar courses together and looking at who did well across them, this is the list of names that comes to me. McCarty, Brooks and Spieth start to stand out the most now that I have had a chance to look through correlations more.

Sims Data Points

These players ended up getting the most optimal lineups. I wont be surprised if Xander's ownership goes up at least 5%

Im not quite trusting of my optimal lineups just yet but reporting it here for anyone wanting to see it. The top Scottie lineup was this one