PGA DFS Odds, Analysis and Leverage for Draftkings Tournaments - Valspar Championship 2026

Been so busy I didnt get to post anything last week so I wanted to get back on track at least this week, this morning while I can. We have a non Scheffler event which should make things more balanced from the start. Wind might be a factor into this week as well. I am looking at my charts for the first time as I write this post to share my thinking process from a data perspective. Hope it helps fill in the gaps to your lineup's win equity.

Odds vs Situations

Xander been playing well and is the highest odds/salary on this slate, with a few big names right behind him. Fitzpatrick just finished well last week and shows 2nd highest odds right now. Then there is a bit of ownership (early) filling in the 9k range, while leaving Patrick Cantlay very low owned in the upper range. That type of dip in ownership makes me immediately consider a pivot if injury isn't a concern. We saw what Morikawa did to 40% of lineups last week and that alone makes it worthwhile this week. There are several golfers on the cheap 7K spectrum to choose from above the trend line. It appears that Hoey and McGreevy are holding up the top value spots.

Updated

Midday ownership update suggests that Bridgeman is going to be chalk of the slate. What I really like about that is that we already identified Cantlay as a viable pivot in the upper range. If nothing else, the top tier guys like Xander and Fitz or Hovland might pair well enough to make that work if you want to be different from the top. Bridgeman is my fade candidate of the week as a result, in order to get extra leverage in the event that Cantlay wins or Bridgeman lets down in some way. If not fading Bridgeman I found one other alternative with Nick Taylor as the pivot away from Brooks and/or Ryo. Hes a little cheaper so perhaps it will help certain build types.

Course Fits

Accuracy off the tee appears to be quite important instead of driving which tells me that power will not be the thing that wins, as this is the 5th toughest course to gain strokes off the tee. Putting also not nearly as important as usual so perhaps scrambling and approach are skillsets to pay attention to. Id say that approach play will be the thing in the middle that matters the post, as bad driving means you have to be a good scrambler to recover.

Strokes Gained History

Love seeing Cantlay as one of the top 2 to gain strokes at this course, with good putting history. If he stays low owned that will be one of my favorite starting plays this week. Justin Thomas has gained slightly better but his putting has been a bit weak. Xander and Corey Conners are the rest of the top tier. Not sure whats wrong with Sungjae this year but hes the cheapest of the top in strokes gained here.

Ceiling vs Value

When calculating the player ceiling, we get away from projections and enter the world of GPP winning potential. This week, Rico Hoey stands out as having the highest ceiling for the lowest ownership. Other names in the upper left quadrant include Brennan and everyone above that trend line as interesting, but its worth checking their recent form and course history to ensure they are not aimed at hitting their floor.

Boom Bust (Xander)

With Xander being the highest odds, highest priced and potentially becoming highest

owned in this tournament I wanted to start with him. The far right side shows best form in the last 5 per their last 5 events (cuts excluded) and Xander is there in the mix. Bottom chart on course history shows Hovland, JT, Horshel, and Ryo all lead in my scoring system for people who have played this course at least twice before. Those two charts wont change as I filter the name. Pairings that succeed together is the one we care about, so if Xander lineups win, ideally he will pair well with names that make sense. Conners, Ryo, and JT were both names I mentioned so that is how I might find a core lineup to build with Xander, if the salary makes sense.

Cantlay

Cantlay's top pairings include Conners as well. Hovland and JT also are of interest. The other names are going to be hit or miss and will shuffle as projections adjust.

Hopefully will update this once again tonight!