DFS PGA Odds Leverage and Analysis for Draftkings - Cognizant Classic 2026

Every week is a new season in DFS, so I expect variance week to week in PGA. This week has the potential to be the most variant of them all so far. 3 of the top salaries dropped out of the tournament after salaries are set, and now we have Ryan Gerard atop of the list of odds, who has not done me much service all year despite having good odds for the price. We have some decisions to make!

Odds vs Situations

This is where I start every week (after pulling data from various sources and reviewing the past weeks work and after upgrading my charts to be smarter). I look at the scatter to see how the player's odds of success relate to the salary and ownership. Gerard at the top, mind you his odds have felt inflated all season, while Shane Lowry projects just a tad lower. Then a little drop to Hojgaard bros. Both Keith Mitchell and Davis Thompson (sub 9k) appear to hold the least ownership at the top end. Mid tier as McGreevy and Hoey also standing out as big value per their salary, which is telling of the field. Dylan Wu and Dumont de Chassart are both on the cheapest end, which ironically may not be needed this week with certain build types. That makes me want to play them more, since 75% of ownership is hitting the top of the salary.

One note this week that I changed; the 2nd table at the bottom sorts to value plays, based on their calculated upside. DeChassart is up there making him interesting with Brenan and maybe Svenson.

Course Fits (datagolf)

This course appears to favor accuracy in the historical sense but success lately appears to favor driving accuracy and putters. Some key holes can cause a lot of trouble here so T2G is likely what I pay most attention to, with greens in regulation as well. With this type of field recent history may also come into play heavier.

Performance and Expected Wins

I continue to see Ryan Gerard on the list of folks expecting a win without one, based on strokes gained data. If he doesnt win this week its gonna be a long season chasing it with him.

Historical Strokes Gained

Looking at this course and who has gained the most strokes here, its Lowry and Mitchell. Gerard has had less bogeys per round than both of them, with stronger putting. A lot of names otherwise that I dont know who have played here before, and low cost like Suber.

GPP Value

This is a chart I posted on X the other day because of how valuable I think it is towards GPPs. THe upper left corner represents low owned plays with the highest ceilings. While not everyone will reach their ceiling,, 1 or 2 of these guys can possibly do so and put you on par for a winning lineup. I will favor Dumont De Chassart for now the most, and maybe a Breenan as a 2nd play, due to his win odds. Dou, and longer shot Hubbard are also interesting if you really wanna dart it out.

Upside Pool

We have some names of the players that I believe have the most upside in this pool, based on projections. They seemingly have the ability to make it to the optimal lineup if they peek this week against their peers. Krostoffer Reitan appears to be the lowest owned of the crew. Rasmus Neergaard might be the lowest owned of the top tier if you want to go against the grain or pivot off one of the top guys/Thorbjornsen etc.

Sims/Boom Bust Pairings

Ryan Gerard

This week is more difficult to choose targets, but I will start with Gerard since he has the top odds. Interestingly, my first build was Gerard and Brennan but this says that pairing could be toxic, which means I will build another lineup without them two together. The issue I have with Gerard aside from the mentioned is thatI dont really favor any of his pairs, nor the core plays listed with him, so maybe that makes him the pivot?

Michael Brennan

If Gerard is not the play and Brennan is, this is what things might look like. 1. Lowry is in play as a core play with Brennan, the top value. Both Hojgaard bros are in the mix here with good play recently, along with a couple others who have good history here.

Shane Lowry

One final play that I wanted to highlight is Shane, who I havent had luck with this week, but does have strong history here. The names that align with him also align with some high upside value plays. I could see my primary lineup being built around Lowry this week of the top 2 names. There is also a world where both fail this week based on the ownership. Brennan, Svvensson and Dou/Yu all have high ceilings for their value.

Good luck!