Maximizing Your Edge: Decoding Week 15's NFL Odds and Leverage on DraftKings and Fanduel

We have gone through all the bye weeks yet there are only 10 games today in order to choose players from. It only takes a couple to differentiate your lineup out here, so lets dive into the angles that can make or break us.

Update! Adding Showdown Content for Baltimore vs Jacksonville

Expections vs Salary

I'm seeing that there is more value in general showing amongst the top players in Jacksonvill per their salary than Baitmore. When looking at the ownership chart though, Baltimore is coming in underowned vs their odds, so this will be interesting. Maybe will lean on the underdogs though tonight. Also noting that Trevor Lawrence has flashed more upside over the past 5 weeks than Lamar. This game has division playoff implications so I do hope Jax brings their best.

Vegas Projections

I have the game going over. Interestingly I have Jacksonville slightly covering the spread which makes this interesting too, so definitely leaning towards them tonight for 4 plays if possible.

Game Script

Neither team is going to be showing a strength vs a weakness tonight. That means playmakers are going to have to step up against strong defensive players whether running or passing tonight.

Defense vs Recievers

The WR1 and RB for Jacksonville appear to be the strengths for Jacksonville tonight. Baltimore is more leaning towards WR3 and receiving RBs.

When Bal has the ball:

Zay Flowers is showing as a leveraged captain that can pan out. Ravens defense is also a captain viable leverage. Lamar is more leeraged at flex than captain but has high enough usage to be played at captain. I just dont like the value of him at captain tonight.

When Jax has the ball

Not really seeing a viable captain on the Jax side that is producing leverage.

Fanduel

I'd definitely try a Trevor Lawrence MVP on that side.

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Updated: 10:23 am CST

Ceilings vs Salary

This is the last 5 weeks of production to tell the story of who can get the highest workload and access to points. Dak, Kyren, and Lamb float above the field in those categories. Next level is Allen and Stafford.

Trevor, Stafford and Mahomes are on the verge of blowup games at their price points, and the Rams seem to be one of the top teams for points projected vs points expected.

Vegas Projections

Buffalo vs Dallas looks to be one of the best games on the slate today in terms of points. It could go over 50 points today. Rams and SF both have individually high totals too. KC is projecting intruigingly low today which opens the door for New England to cover (not a fan).

Maybe all the fines and blowups last week will get them back on track?

Summary

I will reference some of these key metrics as I try and build out my lineups today in relation to the charts below.

Game Scripts

Carolina vs Atlanta looks to get the biggest pace boost on the slate. Too bad the offenses aren't more efficient or else it could be a good game to target. Plus weather is not factored in my numbers which is still important today. I see a few pass funnel situations ahead too here, such as the Rams and KC that are interesting.

QB

Dak is a decent starting point based on what he has done and his ownership. Stafford is looking like a value play. Interestingly Tua drops to sub 1% projected so I guess no one trusts him without Hill. Love, Mahomes, Purdy, Keenum, Stafford and Bryce all have some of the top situations today, but not all of them showing as a value. Looking through projections at this point, Jordan Love is intruiging to pair with a pass catcher as well, but he wont be low owned.

RB

Kyren is going to be popularly paired with CMC today, which puts quite a few guys under in ownership that are cheaper. RB isnt a position I try and get different with. Chicago, Tennesee, and Carolina could see some additional touches at the run game, but none of them truly stand out today. Looking below, CMC might be pushed out of my lineups and with that ownership, we need a decent pivot. Bijan or Pollard could be the one to score similar at the lower price.

WR

Lamb, Wilson and Douglas all have tthe most perceived value with their workloads. Evans seems to be in a leverage position at sub 5% ownership projected.

WR ownership seems pretty spread so I dont think you have to get weird here this week.

TE

Njoku looks like top ceiling at this position, so I will start with him. Trey is 21% projected which is too much for me in a position that is variant. Kelce may be overpriced vs New England who likely takes him away. Conklin will be a good value TE at no ownership.

DST

SF vs AZ may be the best of the bunch to target. Miami over the Jets is also interesting for both sides of the ball. The Browns actually project as the top DST for me today so that is going to be tough. Rushing QBs make that projection sketchy.

Defense vs Receivers

Shall we go back to Deebo? Puka or Kupp will be interesting as WR1s have gone off vs Wasington all year. The problem is either of them could be WR1. Whoever it is will project well. Interestingly Cooks is in a nice funnel spot (wr2) but he is dealing with a sickness so we will see how that pans out.

Projections

Top 5 from each position on each site. I am tempted to play the Texans defense today over the Browns, but we will see how the salary cap aligns on both.

Waller and Kittle give the most apparently leverage on each site as of now.

Fanduel QB

RB

WR

TE