Maximizing Your Potential: NFL Odds and Leverage for Week 11 Tournaments on DraftKings and FanDuel

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Updated: Adding Showdown content

Salary vs Expectations

Dobbs is riding high on the chart, due to all the recent play that has turned to points. Next best being TJ, which makes for some decisions as far as captain plays. Addison is about 4th highest and showing as some leverage as well. On the cheaper end, we can see a couple guys above value in the 2K range and then Nailor for the long shot dart, if Mundt isnt it.

Vegas

Denver is favored but what I am seeing is that Minnesota should be 1 point better than Denver. That makes me want to stack Minnesota right away. (I stack 4 from one team and 2 from the other when stacking.

Game Flow

Denver has been playing well, but they still rank dead last in DVOA against the run and pass. That makes it difficult to see where the real advantages are. Minnesota is a tad worse vs the run than the pass, yet still above average in both areas.

Defense vs Receivers

WR2 is a funnel that Denver will have at their disposal. Jeudy is listed here but I believe that to be Sutton. Minnesota will want to avoid slot WRs when passing as that is the heart of the Denver defense. Addison seems to run the least slot routes of the 3 starters so he is likely the best bet.

When Denver has the ball:

Russell Wilson looks like he makes the best captain on that end as of now. Sutton and Juedy and J Williams all make some sense at the flex, with Jeudy as my least favorite. Will Lutz could make a fine replacement unless you want to drop to a deep leverage like Manhertz.

When Minnesota has the ball:

There isnt a ton of leverage showing on the Minnesota side from the captain side of things. We will see if ownership changes things on this side as it currently looks tough to choose one of these guys outside of Hockenson.

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Ceilings vs Salary

I go through this page live as I write my thoughts from the visuals. The highest ceilings are interesting with Dak and CeeDee floating above everyone. Last week, Dak was in the winning stack for the milli maker so that is a bit tough to go right back to. However there isnt a ton of ownership behind them either. Gibbs, Allen, Garrett Wilson and Tyreek sorta fall in the top tier as well.

As for QBs who can til upwards, Dobbs and Herbert are interesting as they leave points on the table in the last 5 weeks. We will have to see how these matchups look to pick one and stack.

Vegas Projections

Looking at our projections vs the vegas projections on the left, Detroit vs Chicago stands out the most as a game that could go over, if Chicago does what they are supposed to do. Houston and Dallas have the top team totals otherwise, in games expected to blow out. Then we have Washington as the 3rd team with a strong team total.

Totals vs Ownership

For some reason, Dallas team totals are high but the ownership is low. That makes them interesting. Singletary might come in highly owned due to the blowout potential.

Summary

This table is something I will look back to as I go chart to chart below, as they are the summarized situations that can be targeted. Below positional charts are based on Draftkings, and similar charts will be at the bottom for Fanduel.

QB

Dak is the top usage play over the past 5 weeks with some leverage spots showing on either Josh Allen or Jordan Love at the cheap end. Herbert is right on the value line. Of situations for passing, Jordan Love is interesting for having a good QB situation today.

RB

Gibbs floats atop the usage charts without a ton of ownership, as Montgomery is back. Foreman is going to hold leverage, although Najae Harris has a little more workload for less. I am not quite prepared to eat Devin Singletary chalk but the team total says you can.

WR

Lamb, Wilson and Tank all float atop the workloads over the past 5 weeks. Thielan is interesting for a Dak runback option. Cooper appears to hold leverage, but will be without Watson.

TE

I dont see a reason to ever eat TE chalk. Kincaid seems to be the best bet for workloads, although several names up top with him.

DST

The projections actually give the best view of the defenses to target. However this view helps focus on the oline vs dline matchups. We should expect Washington to be dominant against the Giants, which goes without saying really.

Defense vs Receivers

Gibbs and Ceedee stand out at their positions. Watson could be interesting this week as well with Jordan Love in a good spot. One thing about Gibbs is Montgomery is in the revenge narrative today and getting less ownership in the same position.

Projections

On the left, are Fanduel projections and right is Draftkings projections. Maybe we should go back to Jordan Love while ownership is low? His usage is low enough to where I dont do that, but it is worth calling out that he projections as someone who could do well. As far as defenses, the rams defense projects the best on both sites for cheap and less ownership.

Fanduel positional charts

QB

RB

WR

TE

Good luck!