Maximizing Your Win Potential: Analyzing the NFL Week 14 Odds and Leverage for Draftkings GPPs

Setting up shop for the week with different elements that lead to winning lineups. You find your core plays and I'll supply the leverage to your lineups below. Ill add analysis later but here are the charts for now.

For any scatterplot, remember that above the trend line is considered a value. Further left is cheaper, so higher + left is ideal for the max value. Darker blue dots indicate that there is leverage on the play, for better or worse.

Updated: 10:20 am CST

Ceilings vs Salary

Updated: Kyren Williams ownership is dropping but his workload is high. The reason it is dropping is due to the bad game environment (weather), in addition to the increasing good spot for Kamara and CMC's already good spot. I am interested in that opportunity. Stroud is in a bad weather game and so going there is probably not worth while to me. Same with Trevor playing on injury, so they are low owned for a reason. The upside is there for Keenan as well for WRs. The next closest is Mike Evans who looked good last week, so I'm leaning away slightly this week, yet he is potentially direct leverage to Allen.

Previous:

Dak and Herbert are the ones I will watch for QBs.

Kyren seems to have the most upside on the slate per his workload over the last 5 weeks.

Keenan Alennsis leading the WRs in his workload over that period and then the TEs are led by TJ Hockenson.

Stroud is interesting because he has almost no ownership for the type of workload hes used to. Lawrence in a similar position as well, although on a short week.

Vegas

The afternoon hammer might be SF vs SEA. Jacksonville is on a short week but projects well. It seems that weather is a factor in many games so I can imagine that most of these games go under the totals, so check on that.

Summary

Reference points as we look at the charts below. I like to pick a RB from line 25 - > maybe cinci, jacksonville or chargers will be the guy.

QB

Stroud is in the bad weather spot and Trevor is hurt. Flacco may be the value QB of the week in the short passing game. Herbert and Allen are the top plays on the slate at single digit ownership otherwise, and both play on late slate, but there is more value on Herbert than Allen showing.

RB

Kyren floats a top still for RBs. Singletary isnt getting any ownership for his workload. Not quite sure his situation otherwise. Ekeler is in a good spot and so is Kamara who is filtered out of this update (since Taysom is likely out). He will be highly owned though so no special take here.

WR

Update: Keenan is a piece I'm interested in as the top option at WR. DJ Moore is also interesting to me. Metcalf continues to get no ownership even after going nuclear last week. I also see a tad bit of leverage on Addison this week at 1% ownership. Lots of options here so it is difficult to pay up for all 3 WRs this week. Infact I'm more likely to pay down as much as possible here.

TE

Hckenson looks like the strongest play here. Conklin may be serviceable in bad weather as well, and Njoku is sitting there in single digit ownership for cheap so I have to say hes a guy to continue playing until he has a blowup game. Kittle is not showing as value but yet is in a game in which he can blow up for no ownership thanks to Aiyuck and CMC ownership.

DST

Expecting SF to dominate SEA on the front lines. New Orleans could also show up too.

Defense vs Receivers

Overall it seems like many WR2 and WR3 options are in the best spots, which fits well for the RB pay up strategy this week.

Projections

I only pick from my top 5 DSTs so I'm likely to be highest on the 49ers DST, especially if Geno is banged up. Singletary looks highly leveraged. The Cinci QB actually looks like he may be in a good spot this week per projections, but that is on a limited sample size. Purdy looks a bit stronger of a play to me but is highly owned. So maybe interested in Herbert/Wilson both being atop of the QB list. Sutton showing decently on projections as well. Letssee how these things pan out!

Fanduel

RB

WR

TE