Maximizing Your Win Potential: Understanding DFS Odds and Leverage for Draftkings-Thanksgiving GPPs

3 game slate today, so how do we approach these slates without walking into a trap tie for min cash? Lets find out.

Update: Added Dal vs Was to the bottom.

Ceilings vs Salary

No surprises here, that Dak and Ceedee lead the slate in ceilings vs Washington this week. They will be popular and pricey - but thats not enough reason to get away from them just yet. Lets see where other pieces fall. Gibbs, Howell, Love and DK are all pieces who are floating high as well, above our value line. Not all will be affordable. Howell is the lowest owned with the highest upside.

Vegas

Dallas as a team has the most upside and expectaton to blow out washington. Detroit GB seems to have the highest expectation from both teams on the slate, with Green Bay covering the spread and the game going over if all things work out. Finally SF vs Seattle may go under the team total if things go based on my projections. Injuries are not part of these equations.

Dallas vs Washington could be slightly under-owned but not necessarily cheap enough to stack the way we would want.

Summary

I will revisit these situations soon. Some things of interest on the surface: Dak is in a great spot for QBs, yet Sam Howell is a top usage play per the last 5 weeks. His usage, especially if he scrambles could lead to value in a case where no one is playing him. Whether or not hes successful on a short week is another story. Also noting Gibbs is showing up high usage still.

QBs

Seems Jordan Love would be the value QB on the slate today with Dak leading the slate in price and ownership. With only 3 games, I'm likely working with just 3 of the QBs on the slate and they are all above the line.

RBs

Thanks to Gibbs usage value, CMC falls right outside of the value line, but he is still a high ceiling guy on the slate. Gibson and Dillion are the only other two squeezing above the value line, with Pollard and Mitchell showing a little leverage.

WRs

Anyone above the line is considered a value. One name that sticks out above the line is Dotson, who has single digit ownership today. Just maybe a way to get to him in a stack while separating from the field.

TEs

Kittle is showing as the highest priced and outside of the value line, but not quite the highest owned today, so that makes him interesting. Otherwise Logan and Jake are the top values for their price. We need to see defense vs these receivers though to feel good about them.

DST

These are my rankings for defenses today. Seattle is the cheapest but not the worst so maybe some value in playing them. Otherwise 49ers will project the best.

Defense vs Receivers

Ceedee is in a smash spot based on the defense. St Brown is in a decent spot as well, yet I dont like his QB's situation as much. Watson or Doubs may be in a good spot, depending on who the WR2 is. Logan Thomas may be in a good position vs Dallas as far as TE is concerned.

Projections

My top 5 projected at every position is here, with Fanduel on the left, Draftkings on the right. Compare the projections to the situations and see how your lineup best stacks today!

Fav play from each team:

GB -> Jordan Love. Think the QB pivot to save money can pan out here due to the pricey WRs. Can pair with my fav WR Doubs if you take that route, as WR2 is funneling work.

Detroit-> St Brown. GB gives up the deep ball and is also weakest to the left WRs.

Dallas-> Ceedee.

Washington-> middle of the field is the pathway, so Logan Thomas, Curtis Samuel here. Maybe Dotson too.

SF -> Kittle is max leverage on the slate. Slot routes are ideal though. Maybe Jennings but not expecting a ton of snaps there so Kittle it is. CMC is too easy for his floor otherwise.

Sea-> Metcalf. I guess outside routes are the best way to attack SF. I dont want to play any of these guys though tbh.

Fanduel

QB

RB

WR

TE

**************************Dallas vs Washington Showdown*********************************

Expectations vs Salary

Lamb and Dak will float up top no doubt, and Howell not far behind, but then the drop off happens. Ferguson has some leverage. Then we get to guys like Pringle on the cheap end.

When Dallas has the ball:

It seems that every play from Dallas could be a good one which is bad. Maybe Dak captain works or Ferguson, with the kicker also being in play today. Ceedee I think can make captain or flex based on his usage, but shows as higher leverage in the flex.

When Washington has the ball:

Terry M. Could be seen as a viable captain play. Otherwise not too excited to play any of these guys in capt. There is a bit of leverage if going down to Brown, Pringle or Bates.