Maximizing Your Winning Potential: Analyzing NFL Week 12 Odds and Leverage for Draftkings GPPs

The season is already over the halfway mark so we need to find our way to the top of the leaderboards. Many weeks, the field is correct to the point where I think we can play most of the chalk plays and get away with it. However we need to find at least 2 leverage plays in any lineup to move up. Lets see where we can get it.

Updated: 11:33am CST

Ceiling vs Salary

I updated this chart to filter in only those with some neutral to positive leverage. Stroud is intruiging as a pivot off Mahomes and Hurts. Nico and Dell are both high volume options and so we have to respect him as a play today, even against a tougher Jacksonville defense.

For the first time in a while, Neither Mahomes nor Hurts is sitting atop the ceiling charts. Instead we see Josh Allen, Stroud and Mayfield as contenders for the top ceilings based on their workloads over the past 5 weeks. Mayfield will have the highest value of the 3 and is in line to jump ahead of his average points, aka blowup at some point. Kamara is up there as well, with Tank Dell for skill positions. None of those names carry a ton of ownership as of today. Njoku and Justin Watson also float atop the page for cheap, with Cade Otton also looking like a potential pairing with Mayfield lineups for less.

Vegas

About 4 teams are projecting around the 25 pt mark for me. Atl vs New Orleans is showing as a game that can be the highest scoring on the slate, and over the vegas total unless injuries are keeping the total down. Philly vs Buffalo also carries some potential for a top score, in line with the Vegas total. Tampa has a potential of 3 TDs today from projections, and if Baker gets 2 of the 3, he will get to his average 20 points, which is good for cash games at his salary. If he gets all 3, we may start seeing him score closer to 4x his salary.

Other teams with similar TD upside will be Hurts and Allen except they both have rushing TD potential that puts their upside just a tad higher. Price wise that is much different than 5500 Baker.

Jax vs hou is expecting the most fantasy points, however NO vs ATL is the one going underowned the most. Carr health may be impacting that, in addition to the nasty QB splitting. Even Kamara has to share TDs with Taysom for some odd reason. Cleveland also looks a bit underowned but thats due to Watson being out so determine if thats worth the risk or not.

Summary of Situations

I will reference these situations as we go through the workload breakdowns below. Seems Tennessee's running game is interesting. Josh Allen also in an intriguing spot when it comes to rushing QBs vs Philly. The rushing "boost" appears to favor Buffalo, Giants, Denver, and the Raiders the most, which Jacobs actually faces a below average run defense in KC.

QB

Update: In my 3rd lineup built, I am going to target Stroud due to the leverage up top, for a guy who has played well. His team total is also decent for 3 TDs or more.

Several names atop the chart as mentioned before. Josh Allen may be in my initial build just to see what it might look like Could also see a path to Bryce Young and Russ just due to ownership. One thing I also notice is that cheap QBs are getting like 0% ownership for the most part so paying down is an interesting concept.

RB

Update: The only problem with Stroud is that I see Devin Singletary as a potential leverage. Pearce is back and thats why he is showing as leverage. However we also saw what Zach Moss did to Taylor when he returned. I personally will avoid Mixon and Harris due to it being AFC North - where they try and injure each other at every opportunity. Kareem Hunt makes a decent GPP play too.

Kamara is interesting because he is on an island price wise and upside wise, yet has under 10% expectations. Im hoping I can get to him although it may be in lineups with a cheap QB for the most part (or all value WRs).

Rashaad White might be the top value of this chart. The top leverage would be Kareem Hunt, who has been getting into the endzone a little bit. Kamara is priced way up but also interesting due to the game environment.

WR

Updated: Evans will be in my next build because I favored Godwin in my main Baker stack. Nico is a potential pairing or pivot from Dell. Tyler Boyd is the cheaper final option here. Side note, Chase is showing 2% ownership... thats tempting.

Dell, Olave, and Justin Watson all starting to rise on these charts for the week for workload. I think the best plays are the ones who havent converted TDs lately as they have the most opportunity for a high ceiling game per their price.

TE

Kinda interesting to see Njoku atop of this chart, at such a cheap price. It really tilts the TE chart. Kelce looks like hes on an island and sub 10% projection against a division rival.

Defense vs Receivers

We can see a few holes in place for receivers to go off. either Puka or Kupp in a good spot, and then once again, Kamara in a good spot. Also gonna note Theilahn is in a good spot too.

Projections

Updated

One of the more intruiging stacks of now is the Baker to Evans stack (or Godwin based on the routes). WRs project well with backup QBs for the most leverage and I dont necessarily like doing that. Theilen and Puka feel a bit safer. Tennessee appears to be the top DST play today so that sorta negates Theilen if that works out.

Fanduel

QB

RB

WR

TE