Maximizing Your Winning Potential: Week 10 NFL Odds Analysis for Fanduel and Draftkings Main Slate

Thanks for those who supported me with likes and shares on facebook. We might have won depending on how they count the likes and shares, although we came in 2nd in likes alone. Anytime I see free ways to fund things, thats going to help me with keeping this ball rolling. The other alternative will be to just win big in the tournament space so lets get to that.

Updated: 10:36 am CST

Ceilings vs Salaries

I am looking at these numbers and charts for the first time live as I put this page together. The purpose is to find the players who have shown the most upside per their workloads over the past 5 weeks. Chase, Gibbs, Kamara, Howell and Burrow seem to be floating atop of the charts and several project for single digit ownership. Looking at Howell a bit closer, he, Lamar and Dobbs are the QBs who seem to be leaving points on the table, and so I have the most interest in their situations as QBs. Burrow to Chase will otherwise be a popular stack to target today amongst the crowd, so we either join the crowd or beat em.

Vegas vs My Vegas

I do basic projections on the games and compare them to the actual lines to see which games might have an edge in points. Seattle Washington could be interesting which is another nod to Howell. New Orleans also has a few points expected vs Minnesota, which also makes Kamara interesting if he goes under owned (big thanks to Taysom robbing his TDs lately). What makes Kamara interesting is that he will be tough to fit in Burrow to Chase lineups due to price.

Ownership vs Games

Just looking at things from a different perspective than what you will see anywhere else, because thats what it takes to be different, aka top 5% vs middle of the pack. Here we can see Detroit vs LAC and New Orleans vs Minn could both be games that score points yet are taking on less ownership thanks to the popular Cinci team vs Houston who did just give up 30 points last week. I dont think the answer is to just avoid Cinci in a good spot because of ownership. However we do have to find a way to be different with the similar upside if we do decide to be different and it may start with a play or stack from those other games.

Summary of Situations

I will reference these scenarios as I go position by position, starting with QBs.

QB

Updated: Lamar Jackson showing 1% ownership? That's interesting all of a sudden.

Double digit ownership is sitting on Burrow and so we have to pay attention to his projections today as we need points that can compete with his. Howell is a top candidate for cheaper which immediately stands out, followed by Dobbs in Minnesota after what he did last week. Of course the more he learns the playbook, the less confident I will be in him as a playmaker.

RB

Gibbs has been getting a decent workload and so he sits pretty high on the chart. David Montgomery is back and may eat into that workload significantly so that play may not be the safest. Most are going for Mixon, so ideally we can pivot off him somehow to a similar name in a good spot for their matchup today.

WR

Update: Metcalf is looking like the pivot to either Lamb or St Brown today and I may just take it.

Metcalf remains in a good spot for single digit ownership. Last week he had a tougher matchup but maybe we can chase it another week and hope he is a top performer from his workload. There are several names to his left and right with equally high expectations.

TE

Updated: Taysom just hanging out with no ownership because people hate him. He steals td opportunity and scores in place of other guys we like playing. Kinda funny because thats exactly why we play guys in DFS really.

Hockenson has the highest workload of these guys going into this week, but also brings the most ownership, in a position I dislike. If playing him, you probably need to pair him with someone else like Dobbs and Addison to make him worth it. Taysom has been getting points in a sad way lately and yet no one wants to play him at TE. He is viable if the TE or RB situation is good for New Orleans this week.

DST

I'm not a fan of paying up for defenses but Dallas oline and dline should dominate the Giants. Atlanta is a name we dont see often on here but they seem to be in similar position over the cardinals. Lets see how the projections pan out as those are the only 5 defenses I put in my pool typically.

Defense vs Receivers

Looking for funnels and such. Does Gibbs catch passes out of the back field? That would help his case today over Montgomery if so. I kinda like the idea of Metcalf a bit more seeing this.

Projections

I could totally see Irv Smith getting a TD that mixon or Chase would otherwise get. Then we also have Love to Doubs for max leverage today on fanduel if you are really interested in something weird.

These are my personal top 5 projections from each position for both fanduel and draftkings. Looking back at the summary of situations, I see the Chargers, which makes Ekeler interesting to me, as they could see more running opportunity today.

Fanduel Position by Position Charts

Lamar and Howell are both looking like intruiging pivots on fanduel.

RB

WR

TE

Similar analysis as the DK charts. Only thing here is that I added a blue, green and red line to indicate different tiers of plays based on how high they are on these charts.

Ownership numbers likely will update before lock, but there's no guarantee I'll be able to update today. Hopefully this will help though. Good luck!