Maximizing Your Winnings: Breaking Down NFL Odds and Leverage for DraftKings and FanDuel GPPs in Week 16 - December 2023

The season is coming to an end so not too many slates left to make a mark this year. Lets find some ways to climb the ladder this week.

Updated : 9:18 am CST

Ceilings vs Salary

The 3 QBs who have had higher expectations than results over the past 5 weeks were Dak, Minshew and Stafford. Stafford did have a good game last week so I'm not so sure I'm rushing back.

Trevor Lawrence seems to hold the highest expectation with regards to his workload recently, and Lamb is right behind him with much more cost and ownership. Lets dive into the situations for these plays next.

Vegas Projections

Miami vs Dallas is the game of the week, with the game total projected to exceed the totals. Neither team has done well vs teams with winning records and so one of them will at least have a quality win against a questionable winning team. Team totals favor Miami, Jets, Tampa and Chicago, and so I am going to try and focus on those teams first. Weather is not factored into these numbers, but there is rain in several.

Ceedee and White are likely going to lead ownership on both sites unless injury news shifts things. There is some merit to building around chalk and then pivoting 2 players based on how well the chalk has done this season in nfl. However I'm just not feeling most of these guys this week, including White.

Summary of Situations

I use this to spot the teams with potential good situations overall. For example, I will have some interest in Carolina and Chicago rushing, as I expect that one or both teams will score rushing touchdowns. Could be through QBs or RBs in either case. Fields happens to have a good passing situation showing so he could eat both ways.

QBs

There are a few value based QBs showing above the trend line this week, with a weird slant thanks to low workloads from a couple QBs. Essentially the workload of most of these guys is quite flat so the next tie break will be situation based. In the summary page, Fields, Lawrence, Minshew will have the best situations for QBs. If going cheap, just maybe Keenum is our value QB of the week. Lawrence tops the list, but note he is barely escaping concussion protocol as well.

RBs

Etienne seems to be the highest workload RB on the slate, surrounded by a couple other name. Mostert isnt picking up a ton of ownership and Achane is showing as unowned. Without CMC or Kyren on the slate, things are a bit more balanced this week with regards to workloads.

WRs

Lamb sticks out the most but hes a premium priced play with high ownership. So then I look at Nico Collins and wonder if hes healthy. Ridley makes a ton of sense for is workload if Lawrence goes off. Elijah Moore and Mingo look like cheap options worth looking into.

TE

The slant on this chart looks the strongest, with Njoku , Mcbride and Engram leading the way on the expensive side. Conklin and Chig on the cheap side. Laporta looks to have single digit ownership for less value if you want leverage.

Defense vs Receivers

Ceedee is in a good spot, but his QB isnt necessarily in one. Both Metcalf and Lockett may be in good spots, and then DJ Moore also stands out.

James Conner is in a good spot for pass catching work but its worth looking at his targets to ensure that he is normally used that way. His high has been about 5 targets in a game.

Projections

Left side is Fanduel numbers and right side is draftkings. Kinda rare but the Seahawks will be my top exposure on defense this week.

Fanduel charts

QB

RB

WR

TE