NFL Christmas Slate and Showdown Odds and Leverage for Draftkings Tournaments Dec 2024

With only 2 games on a weird short slate, I suspect these games to end up being underwhelming and quite dumb to even be scheduled today, with four of the league's top teams. This has playoff implications not only due to seeding and division championships, but injuries in mind. Per ESPN, only once since 1933 has an NFL team played three games in 11 days in December: the 2011 Jacksonville Jaguars. This season, 4 other teams had to do this earlier in the year - and surprise, they all suck and are out of the playoffs. Nonetheless, where there is opportunity, we must prepare to be as optimal as possible today. Rant over.

Today we have to balance our personal bias, chalk and realistic pivots and hopefully each view below gives an idea of where a non zero chance at success exists against the grain.

Salary vs Expectations (last 3 games)

Updated: I pushed Pickens up on this chart based on his previous 3 games played. That sorta tilts Juju into the picture for long shot darts. There is a slight revenge narrative there so I am going to do a Mahomes Juju stack just in case, for like a buck.

This chart is all about finding the highest ceiling as it pertains to workload. Surprisingly Mahomes tops the chart when looking at the last 3 weeks, I mean 3 games. 3 games is a very small sample size and therefore I'd have to say that either Mahomes or Lamar could be that ceiling play, yet tie break to me would go to the guy who is rushing without a healing leg injury. Something else of interest, Nico Collins opportunity vs Xavier Worthy has tilted towards Worthy in that span. We fully expect that Nico's workload will actually increase today due to Dell being hurt, and that is driving his ownership up, just like it did with Gibbs on Sunday, and just like it did with Chuba the week before. He is, hands down the most logical play however, but lets see how the others stack up.

One guy not seen on the chart that could go overlooked is George Pickens, who returns from 3 weeks off. He is going to be difficult to pay for if you eat the chalk elsewhere, but it appears he is fully rested and playing today. Perhaps a low owned play that could pan out in place of someone else on the slate.

The value appears to be primarily in the 4K-5K range this week, while the dart range looks quite weak. Noah Gray or Isiah Likely look like the highest playable workload on the cheap end.

Vegas Projections

Based on my tools, the Baltimore game actually has the potential to go under its implied total, while the Pittsburg/KC game has the potential to stay at or exceed the Vegas expectations. I would lean the under on both games due to scheduling otherwise.

I believe more ownership will end up landing on the 2nd of the two games thanks to Nico.

Game Scripts

Baltimore and Kansas City look like the weakest of the defenses overall today, while Houston is ranked 1st against the pass and Pittsburg has been 8th against the pass this year. Baltimore and KC have been the better offenses though, so which side wins on a short week?

Defense vs Receivers

So Houston, gets the team ranked 32nd against the pass to WR1, and that is almost by far the worst ranking here, next to what Baltimore gives up to WR2 as well, i.e. the most certain play on the board.. KC still seems to hold their weak spot against TE. If Chris Jones sits out though, this chart likely goes out the window for KC defense.

Kansas City offense is extremely difficult to project. WR1 would seemingly be Hopkins based on his skill. However Worthy had the most targets in the past 5 games of the big 3. Hollywood is also 1 game in, but had 8 targets in that game, meaning he could be the 1 or 2. So for now, I bumped Hopkins down to the WR3 spot, which may bump his projection slightly. Baltimore has a soft spot at the WR2 space which projects as Bateman. Keep in mind the Chiefs put up 27 points against them despite their rankings.

Draftkings Projections

This slate's projections are interesting because while Lamar projects to be the best QB on the slate (and the only one with leverage), none of them project as a good value. Baltimore vs Houston project the top RB and WR for each team as having the most ownership and highest projections. The easier position to pivot from is within the WR space since the workloads are the least predictable.

The TE position seems to have the most potential for value

As for defense, I think its either pay all the way up and eat the chalk, or pay all the way down and hope for value, in which case you should use as much salary as possible in that build.

Optimal Lineup

The optimal per my projections seems to target Baltimore + KC heavily, with Nico, targeting the favorites. While this is how projections lay out the slate (with data missing from Pickens), I think the ideal build will likely require multiple pivots to make the stacks make sense. In 2 game slates, the likelihood of someone reaching the actual optimal lineup is much more likely than the larger slates, so we do have to think upside and best value plays.

Updated Optimal

Sims

It is difficult to say whether or not the sims will make sense this week but many weeks it has helped with lineup construction and therefore I will build an entry around the idea of finding the right fit. The Salary estimates say that we should prioritize RB and QB first. QB at 6500 would indicate that we are not to play Lamar in this specific strategy. We also wouldnt be playing Henry unless we have a dart play with 20 point upside to average the salary downwards.

Ill screenshot a list of potential ways the sims might solve this salary based puzzle as we go position to position.

QB

None of the defenses or situations are necessarily good for QBs today. Then we also have to consider that Wilson looked very good when Pickens was playing and that was outside of the range of this chart. All of these QBs are actually within range of reaching the target goal, but Mahomes is the best fit for the price.

RB

The top 3 projected RBs have ceilings that get reasonably close to the target score. I believe RBs suffer the most on short slates though so maybe 20 points is a stretch for 2 RBs on this slate. Nonetheless here are the Combinations that seem to make the average salary work for RBs:

WR

WRs are a bit more tricky to deal with because you will need 3 of them. Looking at the workloads alone, Nico and Worthy are at the top of the chart which makes them viable if we believe the WRs get to their 20 point targets. In the event you play both of them, there is 4500 left to make the salary work (aka Hollywood/Austin/Bateman/Hopkins range). A few combinations below that could make that average salary at WR.

It seems that the Pickens + Worthy combination is the toughest one to get positive ROI with but understand that even if you have negative ROI at this position, the lineup total ROI could still end up positive.

TE

Mark Andrews actually fits the projected salary the best, but I also estimate that double TE could work too, with one of these combinations.

Also note that Pat F. is in a good spot, but low workload, so seemingly he would be touchdown dependent now that Pickens is back. If paying up for Lamar, I would likely pay down for Freiermuth in that lineup to offset the cost.

Top Ownership Projected

Most lineups are likely to have Henry and Nico today. So as I see this, the very first path in which you become contrarian to the field is by playing Lamar + Mixon. The only issue there is that you dont gain a whole lot of leverage just by playing the 3rd highest owned player either. The other path that might make sense is to somehow get to Houston defense. Otherwise today's strategy may be to focus on which plays you believe are going to be optimal in game 1, and simply playing only the limited plays in that game to pivot by the time game two comes around to get in-game leverage.

This is the subset of plays that seemingly contain leverage based on their ownership.

KC vs Pitt Showdown

Our top known usage on the slate is Mahomes, but also that comes with ownership and cost, meaning he likely wont be optimal as a captain. Pickens is missing data as he hasnt played this entire time frame, so his position is definitely higher than shown, and less ownership expected. Otherwise Worthy, Brown, Wilson and Kelce are high usage for their price. Mid tier is TEs and Van Jefferson who might go overlooked. Finally the dart throw range is Pruitt and I sorta have interest in testing that, especially in a lineup where I might play Wilson captain (if he shows leverage).

Redzone Targets

None of these guys come at a discounted rate. Gray and Van or Mike Williams might be the dartiest but they are also the dirtiest plays to reach for.

KC vs Pit Showdown Optimal

5-1 KC stack could be very misleading today as mentioned. KC projects much better than pitt players but also considers that Pickens was out but could make the whole team better than advertised. This lineup has negative ROI meaning I will not be playing it.

Kansas City Leverage Spots

Mahomes is showing more flex leverage than captain leverage. He is the one expecting the highest ownership which I have been known to fade in the past, but not today for me. Kelce or Worthy could end up being good leverage at captain if ownership stays like this. There is also a chance that Butker gets more busy with short week, so perhaps he is ideal to include in flex. Chiefs defense has some leverage as well. For what it is worth, I am planning 4-2 Chiefs stacks.

Steelers Leverage Spots

Pickens or Warren could be the leverage spots for Pitt at captain. Pat looks to be flex leverage, with Wilson showing as flex leverage moreso than captain leverage if doing double QB today.

Bal vs Hou Showdown

Just dropping the charts. Lamar is not the most priced play so this ought to be interesting. TEs in the value zone. How many TEs can we fit into a showdown lineup? Oh and I liked Bateman still so lets see how that goes.

Baltimore Leverage

Its super rare to see Lamar as a captain option with leverage and under 20% owned without being the most owned. He is likely my captain. Henry is also showing leverage in the same spot but I'm off him.

Houston Leverage

Nico is a very viable option too. Infact the ownership at captain is a lilttle less so I will built 1 4 man stack with Houston first, although I like the Lamar captain just as much. Schultz and Fairbarn are also flex leverage pieces.

Optimal

Can we possibly see a 5 - 1 Baltimore stack pan out?? Thats odd to me, but lets see how things lay out! I'm going to make at least 2.5 swaps to this lineup in case its right.