NFL DFS Odds and Leverage for Draftkings Showdown - Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Buffalo Bills - Oct 2023

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Updated: 7:06 pm CST

Odds and Situations (Draftkings)

Whenever Buffalo is on the slate in prime time, you have to consider the upside of Diggs and Allen, as they are always top tier options. Next closest upside is Baker, Evans, Godwin and White, and Baker was questionable last I checked. With price in mind, you could probably get more for your money by stacking the TB side of things 4-2, if the 2 include Allen and/or Diggs.

On the cheaper side, we see Thompkins, Vaugh an Maybe Otton as candidates for points. The blue dot indicates some leverage available with Otton and Cook.

Fanduel:

By request, I'm testing out the fanduel version of this chart. The scoring and lineup construction is a bit different, which actually makes Baker intruiging if hes healthy enough to play. Diggs and Allen are still most likely to produce though. Godwin workload has been higher but he is also questionable. Then I see Latavius Murray floating down there in the 6k range as an option for points, next to Devin at 2% ownership projected.

Vegas Projections

This could be one of the lower scoring games of the week. The only way that changes is if these QBs have time to air it out without a ton of pass pressure (which I think may be the case). The line is close enough to not look at that bet. Buffalo ML is prolly the only one that feels right here. -8.5 is a lot of points and I have Tampa slightly covering that spread. Usually teams will vary about 7 points in one direction or the other from the projected total so that really could flip things.

Expected Game Script

It seems to me that Buffalo is in better shape for passing tonight than Tampa. Tampa also ranks 29th in rushing so I believe both QBs will go to the air. The tampa pass protection is looking to be pretty much elite while run blocking on both sides is less than par, so I assume lots of pass attempts tonight in a slower paced game.

Projected Player Count

Buffalo seems to only have 2 TE on the roster and so I could see a reason to target one of them, when trying to filter targets to points.

Defense vs Receivers

We don't know how healthy Baker is but his WR1 is in an ideal spot - if thats Godwin or Evans (usually Evans actually, but both in below average coverage expectations). The TE also looks intruiging. WR3 for Buffalo is in a good spot as well. Sometimes Gabe Davis pops off in that case so I may refer to the WR vs CB chart at PFF for more insight here. One thing to note is that deep threat WRs have beaten both of these defenses in the past. Not sure if they have that potential tonight but its worth mentioning.

Leverage and Projections when stacking Buffalo:

It seems that Gabe Davis could be a dart captain but honestly, Diggs against the grain or Allen against the grain are likely the top scorers on this side of the fense. I think those land you in more ties if they pan out though as well.

Diggs is likely highest owned next to Allen tonight, with good reason. Both are better plays in the flex than at captain. So then what can we do to balance out the chalk? Right now, there are many flex options, but none deeper than Harty or Sherfield. Shakir could also do something strange so lets find out tonight!

Leverage and Projections when stacking Tampa:

Godwin seems to be the strongest play here at this time. Trey Palmer is the longest of field darts and will require a long td to pay off.

Chris Godwin at captain appears to be leverage tonight. In looking at DVOA he makes sense too, except he is questionable. The other questionable part is whether or not he is treated as WR1 or WR2 to Mike Evans. WR1 is where its at tonight for Tampa. Not sure I like the idea of playing Baker too much just yet but he might also make sense at captain in the next update.