NFL DFS Week 9 Odds, Leverage and Analysis for Draftkings GPP Oct 2025

The regular season is at the halfway mark, or officially past it, and now its time to try and find a ways to not only correlate within our lineups but correlate to the winners. The tools you see here have been a combination of years in prep with the goal in mind of being unique and aligned to finding the individual plays that separate from the pack by default. In the winning lineup reviews, I can usually find how the winner got to those individual plays, with a bit more correlation. Last week, the winner had 3 different correlated pieces in his/her lineup. Similar to last week's lottery post, if playinga lineup where you pick your positions from top to bottom, you are asking yourself to get 9 individual events right (a pick 9 lottery ticket). Starting with the WR and pairing back to the QB begins to make it a pick 8. Double stacking WRs/run backs could mean less items to choose from, but is also dependant on getting a couple factors right (price, game environment and upside) in order to hit -> which feels more like a parlay than an increase in your odds. In this writeup, we will continue to find individual pivot positions while keeping in mind the secondary and tertiary stack opportunities that most people aren't thinking about. As usual, I am starting the week with repeatable charts up top and will continue to grow the page - or on an X thread, so follow both! And drop a like or a buck in my  Venmo if this stuff is helpful for you.

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Summary of Situations

I updated my summary page to pull in the top 5 team totals that make sense based on what I can calculate. If you believe other Vegas totals like Buffalo vs Kansas City shoot out, you can perform the same exercise with those teams as laid out below.

The approach for me is top down, from the projected team point totals, finding the best running situations for those teams as priority, and then focusing on the receiving points, so that we can work backwards to a low owned passer in a situation to stack. The danger of this week is seeing Indianapolis up top again in points expected. If they can run for touchdowns they definitely will. On the surface though this game looks a little bit better for passing than last week so i feel better about the passing actually working out. Other first impressions in this chart are that Flacco and Chase are essentially the top usage pairing on the chart, CMC gets one of the weakest defenses this week even though many could end up taking the Tyrone Tracy value, and that Buffalo rushing could be a factor for the home team vs KC. Not to deep dive just yet- but to get an idea of where things are.

Top Projected Owned Lineup

Interestingly enough it looks like a game stack between NYG and SF, meaning that game is expecting to be the highest owned. I will hope to update this in the morning with fresh ownership projections.

updated: 730 am cst:

The chalk lineup is going for pay down at rb and pay up for WR, with a RB in the flex and still a game stack on SF vs NYG. How do we beat it?

Expectations vs Salary (last 3 games)

I pulled the past 3 games for just about everyone I could to produce this week's chart. If I get time before tomorrow I will also pull past 5 weeks just in case, but for now, Chase is the top usage in his past 3 games, surpassing CMC and names like Jonathan Taylor who actually project really low ownership on first pull. We have a quintet of QBs who have been high usage as well in their 3 game sample, with Herbert actually leading them all. Then I see a Joe Flacco at around 6% ownership at the time of this writing with Chase at 31%, which means many are not expected to stack there, so thats another thing to keep in mind when we get to those positions. The cheap value side shows Eric Ayomaynor as the value WR mixed in with TEs in that space. I'll also mention that Brashard Smith is likely to see more work than his past 3 weeks with Pacheco out.

RBs

This week, the RB position is a bit more tricky than I anticipated. I dont see the absolute smash spots but we definitely have consolidated ownership due to backups seeing more expected responsibility. I do want to get to one chalky RB, but I will likely land on a low owned play this week more than usual. High owned - CMC makes the most sense as the highest workload facing a weak run defense. On the cheap end we could see Kyle M. get some extended work due to Swift being out, vs the Bengals, who surprisingly arent terrible in run DVOA, yet are in points allowed. Therefore I'm not locking him in but I am playing him to some degree. Keep in mind, I also hate the bears thanks to Caleb being QB, who is ineficient and quite frankly could limit his RB's opportunities if he remains inefficient in a good situation. The price point yet still keeps Kyle in play considering that the position feels weaker to me this week. I circled the two top plays to me as of now (Vidal and Kyren). Will have to see how the WRs look in order to determine if we pay up for the typical top dogs who might have surprisingly low ownersip (Jacobs, Bijan, and Touchdown Taylor).

WRs

Taking a look at the top WRs in workload and in my scoring system, I found the 3 that stand out the most to me. Chase, Odunze and Davante Adams. All 3 are names I could make a case against, but I circled them because they all have pretty elite target shares with a good situation for their QB of this top 10 list. I added projected ownership to the end of this chart as well. This opens up the opportunity to once again pay either Caleb (hate playin em) Williams, Joe (hurt shoulder) Flacco, or Matt Stafford for the first lineup I build. That also creates a game stack environment with that cinci and chicago game. I was about to get away from that, except both teams do project to get to 26 points which may be the key to run backs. I will also mention that there is a high chance I play a WR in the flex, which means that we will want to get to one more WR with upside.

Ladd is showing as a high value upside guy based on the last 3 games, and he has a good matchup showing in the Defense vs Receivers space. Drake London , St Brown and Michael Pittman also look good from a WR1 perspective. Noting that Rashee Rice is on the slate as well and they have been force feeding him touches - hes also in a decent spot vs Buffalo but likely high ownership.

QBs

Aaron Rodgers to DK Metcalf just became interesting. I wrapped line around the salary range projected to be ideal for QBs. We talked about Caleb and Flacco as to why or why not play them. But one thing worth noting is who the low owned plays are here that can be paired with those WRs mentioned above. DK stands out immediately. He doesnt project well because Indianapolis is ranked number 1 defense against WR1s. It is undetermined if they will use CB Ward to shadow him, but they might. If not he has one of the top matchups on the week. If they do shadow, is Metcalf gonna beat Ward even? Time will tell, but that is how I am using these charts until further notice- to uncover them types of stacks. I think a runback makes sense too because of Indy's team expectations.

TEs

I'm leaning a bit more into the scatterplot with TEs than anything, which means these pay up options seem to be the most intriguing of this position. None projecting super high ownership and they all have good scores towards being viable. Otherwise Hunter Henry and Juwan Johnson score well but are unpredictable at the same time due to the others in the role that can vulture touchdowns.

Main Slate Projections

Correlation is key even for those plays not showing in my top 5. Bringing one of them into your lineup is the way to build winning lineups.

Sims (testing insights)

Ran 50,000 sims and these were the results for players who saw more success than busts (top 3 per position).

Top 10 Leverage and Fades

Totally untested fades section that I'm ignoring this week, but will pay attention to when reviewing the winners. Lots of these plays I like so they may be biased in the algorithm.

Of the correlated pairs, I'll likely try JT with Odunze just because of the low ownership listed here. It will be more owned than that, but I like the ones under represented.

Pivot potential

While the ownership projected isnt necessarily accurate, i do think there is some merit to what is being seen. I am definitely intruiged by the Metcalf recommendations.

Remember to follow my  X account for late breaking info and additional insights! And drop a like or a buck in my  Venmo if this stuff is helpful for you.

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Ceiling Finder (Thurs - Monday)

If reviewing this view on a per dollar basis, our top 3 plays on the week are CMC, Mahomes and Trevor Lawrence when it comes to opportunity. Towards the upper left, I start to see potential value, which is usually filled with TE and DST for cheap, but the occasional WR like Ayanor and Hollywood Brown should be remembered. As the week goes, one thing I am going to do is repost this chart with a 3 day lookback as opposed to the normal 5 day, and this is because I am hopeful we can get more predictive early on these players that blow up.

Game Expectations

Last week, 10 games had at least 1 team score 30 points or more. One of those games had both teams score that high. It leads me to believe that trying to stack a runback is a bad idea as I alluded to last week. Instead we should just stack different correlations from multiple teams that make sense to exceed expectations. Vegas has 4 totals over 50 points this week which is more than I've seen in a while. Not all 4 will make it and then some of the totals in the 40s might balloon up to the 50s+ as well. Chicago vs Cincinnati, Arizona vs Dallas and Indianapolis vs Pittsburgh are three examples of games I think have a good shot at exceeding 50 points but Vegas will likely price those players up to go along with that expectation. Kansas City vs Buffalo could potentially go under them, although we really only need to focus on getting one team right within a game, that puts up multiple touchdowns.

Run and Pass Block Advantages

I see a few different cases this week where eams are not expected to get much resistance and perhaps this is why I see such a high scoring setup ahead. A few QBS handle pressure better than others per charts floating around X this week (aka Mahomes, Daniel Jones nd some others), as well as some RBs who gain yards despite the run blocking. I typically expect less efficiency in general when someone is in a negative situation from the offensive perspective.

Game Scripts

Teams with a higher pace are projected to have more opportunities to make plays throughout the game while teams with lower pace will have to have efficient offenses in order to make plays. I will likely add EPA stats to this view at some point to help reflect that, but for now we can see DVOA rankings for offensve vs defensive units. The pass funnels this week will be seen by Jacksonville, Las Vegas and Atlanta, so passing should be higher for them teams, whether or not they are successful in donig so.

Defense vs Receivers

The names in the positions will changes based on injuries but for the most part, we can see where holes in the defenses can lead to points and explosive plays. The funnels to primary receivers are usually ideal.

Early Projections

Sorta surprised that Kyren and Javonte Williams both projecting above average this week. Some things may shift throughout the week, but Lions look like the starting top defense, at home so I like that. Interestingly enough I do not see Jamyrr Gibbs in my top RBs, but perhaps that is one of the first correlations to look into this week (DST to RB). Away teams tend to have more trouble producing, and even more specific, the favorites that are away teams. In reverse, I do see Kyren Williams boosted atop of the projections, as well as the Rams defense in the 5th position so that is another I will likely play.

TNF Showdown Player Expectations

The top name on the chart today is De'Von Achane, which means that his workload can potentially put up the most points on the slate. Granted we do not have the same amount of game history for Lamar Jackson but these nmbers are on a per game basis. I think of the top 4 names, we likely want to pair QB-WR1 or QB+RB1, with added value along the way. Jaylen Wright leads the potential dart section, but there are also some mid range value like Malik Washington and Mark Andrews on the table.

Getting the big picture view for the morning, it feels that Lamar Jackson is back and expected to dominiate the ownership. First game after many weeks away, we don't know exactly how healthy he is or risk of reinjury. We do know that the Ravens sorta need him and that their offensive line protection hasnt been the best. So for that, I can see some leverage right away on Achane at captain at potentially half the captain ownership of Lamar. That correlation to the Miami defense would be there in that case as well. However if the Ravens do well, theres a high chance that either Flowers comes back to life or Mark Andrews does, which can impact whether or not we play Flowers in the flex or captain spot, as well as Andrews in the flex (or captain even for some types of builds). I doubt I play both of those skill spots together for that parlay type experience, as parlays are difficult to hit.

Follow my X thread and check back for updates as the insights will keep coming. And drop a like or a buck in my  Venmo if this stuff is helpful for you.

Showdown Sims Captain Insights

I ran 50,000 simulations of the contest, mostly falling under shootout style games for maximum upside and these 5 captains showed up the most in the result set. Lamar and Achane are going to be tough to pass on for upside in the captain spot. I will say that I showed negative leverage for Lamar in the flex spots, possibly due to his high success rate as captain. The lower ods like Waddle and Henry are not to be overlooked though as the large gpp is still roughly 80,000 entries and weird things can happen to allow them to blow up.

Potentially Trap Plays

I doubt both of these guys fail today but they hit my radar for possible busts today. Last time it was Rice and Deebo, where only Deebo failed, so keep that in mind. If Lamar fails, then Zay will fail, but not necessarily the other way around. If they both fail, then we better be stacking Miami.

Toxic Pairings vs Winning Correlations

What I see here, is that Tua is not likely to run back well with certain plays, nor is Riley Patterson (Miami kicker)- surprisingly with Achane or Lamar, based on his projection. The winning side actually starts with Lamar + tight end, if not double TE. Mark Andrews seems to match several winning combos of top plays, whether its Achane or Lamar.

Top Sims Leverage Plays

I do try and get 2-3 leverage plays when I build a lineup and depending on your lean, that may provide insights. Mark Andrews is my favorite as of 9am CST, which naturally pulls Lamar with him.

Top Overall Sim Scoring Lineups

Full disclosure, this is not an endorsement to play the top simulated lineups (although that one week, my top simulated lineup did just about end up the optimal one week). Instead it is another way to evaluate how a player's outcomes could pan out and how often it does, and with who. Double QB isnt showing up that often, and as I suspected, the combination of Zay + Mark is also a bit lower than you would think so I'm not building that combo. Greg Dulcich is someone to ensure is playing but he seems to show up a bit on this end.

Top Sim Achane GPP Lineups

Taking a sample of the top GPP based lineups, I am mostly curious as to what the builds look like. Seeing some negative correlation amongst them so if I were to pick one, itd probably fade Lamar and get them double TEs. Otherwise looking at the cheap guys who show up most often, Malik, Eskridge stand out for dart purposes the most so maybe one of them make the optimal in an Achane build?

~~~~~Testing core insights below. Use with your own discretion~~~~

TIER 1 CORE per sims (Ideal to Use)

1. Mark Andrews ($5000 TE) - UTIL

• Why: Elite quality metrics at LOW ownership. Appears in nearly 50% of winning lineups but only 16% owned. This is THE core play.

2. Isaiah Likely ($2000 TE) - UTIL

• Why: Exceptional salary relief ($2K) with strong quality metrics. Stacking both BAL TEs = differentiation + game theory edge if BAL passes heavily.

TIER 2 CORE (Flex Based on Build)

3. De'Von Achane ($11400 RB) - CPT OR UTIL

• Why: Highest raw leverage. Use as CPT for differentiation (15.3% own vs 26.2% for Lamar). As UTIL, ownership is manageable at 37.1%.

4A. Lamar Jackson ($11800 QB) - CPT ONLY (Tournament Builds)

• Why: Only as CPT. 26.2% CPT ownership is digestible when Top1% is 63%. Avoid as UTIL (51.5% owned).

• Risk: Trap chalk warning. Use in 30-40% of builds only.

4B. Dolphins DST ($3400) - UTIL (Leverage Builds)

• Why: Salary relief + contrarian if MIA defense performs. Top1% differential of +10% vs losing lineups.

YOLO CORE COMBINATIONS

Build Type A: "Double TE Stack" (60% of lineups)

Core: Mark Andrews (UTIL) + Isaiah Likely (UTIL) + Achane (CPT)

• Total Core: $18,400

• Remaining: $31,600 for 3 flex

• Edge: Elite quality metrics, massive differentiation from Lamar/Flowers chalk

Build Type B: "Lamar Nuclear" (30% of lineups)

Core: Lamar (CPT) + Mark Andrews (UTIL) + Isaiah Likely (UTIL)

• Total Core: $18,800

• Remaining: $31,200 for 3 flex

• Edge: If Lamar goes nuclear, BAL TE stack captures correlation

Build Type C: "Achane Contrarian" (10% of lineups)

Core: Achane (UTIL) + Mark Andrews (UTIL) + Dolphins DST (UTIL)

• Remaining: $31,200 for CPT + 2 flex

• Edge: Fades Lamar, leverages MIA game script